Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
David J. Stewart
Conservative Party:
Richard W.A.H. Jenkins
Liberal Democratic Party:
Patsy Kenton
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Angus B. MacNeil
Scottish Socialist Party:
Steven Arnott

David Stewart

97 Result:
David Stewart
Mary Scanlon
Stephen Gallagher
Fergus Ewing
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:


Household SEG:
I - Professional3.6%
II - Managerial/Technical28.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)20.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.1%
IV - Partly Skilled15.3%
V - Unskilled8.1%

Own Residence60.0%
Rent Residence40.1%
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15/05/01 JL Email:
This is an exceptionally interesting constituency, with all four parties polling well in '97. I would expect the SNP to win here, however. The former LibDem MP up to '97 held the seat on a huge personal vote, as was demonstrated when he retired. I strongly suspect there will be a further collapse in the LibDem vote this time, with many switching to the SNP.They will then become the fourth party to hold the seat since 1964.
27/05/01 Liam Email:
Nats to win this also. It will be close fought but a growth in Nat support in Scotland and to greater extent Wales will see some interesting gains
30/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Sir Russell Johnston's personal vote wasn't exactly huge by the time 1992 rolled along; in fact, he would have gone the way of Geraint Howells if it wasn't for what might have been the most extraordinary election result of the c20--a *four* way marginal, with less than 4 percentage points separating 4 parties! (And thus 1997 presented constituents with a different, if more illusionary, kind of extraordinary--the only seat where Labour vaulted from fourth place to first.) Under this circumstance, keep in mind as well that SNP's got a fairly shallow base to build upon--even in its Scottish parliamentary victory of 1999, it fell short of a third of a vote...
30/05/01 Colin Forth Email:
Yes, the SNP won it in the Scottish Parliament elections. But polling shows the SNP support is higher for Holyrood than for Westminster. If that bump returns the SNP will not achieve enough to remove David Stewart. This must be Labour's most vulnerable seat in Scotland. The opinion polls are consistent with the last election (alhtough both overstate Labour's position). There is no evidence of a SNP surge here or anywhere else in Scotland.
03/06/01 A Jeffrey Email:
Unofficial Poll - Sunday 3rd June 2001 Labour - 34% SNP - 31% Lib Dem - 16% Conservative - 14% Other - 5% Labour Likely to Hold seat with reduced majority - saved only by strong David Stewart personal vote.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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