Election Prediction Project
British General Election
North Tayside

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Thomas Docherty
Conservative Party:
Murdo M. Fraser
Liberal Democratic Party:
Julia Robertson
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Peter Wishart
Scottish Socialist Party:

John Swinney

97 Result:
Ian McFatridge
Bill Walker
Peter Regent
John Swinney
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:


Household SEG:
I - Professional3.2%
II - Managerial/Technical27.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.7%
IV - Partly Skilled17.3%
V - Unskilled8.2%

Own Residence54.5%
Rent Residence45.5%
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22/04/01 L.H. Gale Email:
Rarely does a party leader lose their seat. With so much media exposure, as well as long time Scot-nationalist support, backed up with endorsements from the likes of Sean Connery, the SNP will remain a force, and they will keep this riding.
Editor's Note: Mr. Swinney is not standing for Westminster.
20/05/01 DM Bean Email:
On the contrary to the previous comment, the Editor is exactly right to say that John Swinny, the esteemed Leader of the SNP, is not standing - he's resigning his seat to concentrate on leading the party from the Scottish Parliament. Who is his successor, Pete Wishart? Who knows? Who, indeed, cares, because this could be the SNP's biggest problem. When one considers that Murdo Fraser has strong local support from the farmers around here - who are one of the two principle blocks of voters who shall decide the issue, the others being the SNP-voting townies - it really does seem like this is one of those seats where the weather on the day will very much affect the outcome. Simply, Conservative voters will turn out whatever the weather, whilst the SNP supporters can hardly be trusted for constancy. Given that the Nationalists only won the seat from the Conservatives in 1997, Mr. Fraser could well manage to pull it off.
22/05/01 JL Email:
The Tories are in far too much disarray in Scotland to win back this seat. What indications are there that SNP voters lack in constancy? This is an area where they have been steadily increasing their support over many years, and the link between the Conservatives and the farming interest vanished decades ago in Scotland. I would ask Mr Gale: what is a "riding"? His use of the term does not suggest a very close knowledge of the British political scene - Editor also note!!!

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Last Updated 06 June 2001
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