Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Aldershot

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Luke Akehurst
Conservative Party:
J. Gerald D. Howarth
Liberal Democratic Party:
Adrian P. Collett
Green Party:
Adam Stacey
UK Independence Party:
Derek Rumsey
Monster Raving Loony Party:
Alan Hope

Incumbent:
Gerald Howarth

97 Result:
Terence Bridgeman
13,05724.1%
Gerald Howarth
23,11942.7%
Adrian Collett
16,49830.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,15171.07%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
8,15413.8%
34,30058.1%
15,58426.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,99478.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.6%
16-2415.7%
25-3926.1%
40-6524.6%
65 <12.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.7%
Black0.6%
Indian/Pakistani0.7%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time70.6%
Part Time14.1%
Self Employed9.3%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed5.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.5%
II - Managerial/Technical31.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.3%
IV - Partly Skilled10.3%
V - Unskilled4.2%

Misc:
Own Residence71.9%
Rent Residence22.3%
Own Car(s)81.2%
Submissions
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02/05/01 JR Email:
Aldershot didn't see a change of party control in 1997 but it did experience a dramatic change in representation nonetheless. Julian Critchley - one of the most anti-Thatcher, pro-European moderate Tories, retired and was replaced by Gerald Howarth, a retread MP (he represented Cannock from 1983 to 1992) on the outer fringes of the Tory right. Howarth has been a member of the far-right Monday Club and an organisation called 'the Halt Immigration Now Campaign'. Along with the disgraced Neil Hamilton he was in 1985 the subject of a controversial BBC documentary, Maggie's Militant Tendency, which highlighted links between Tory MPs and neo-fascist parties in Europe. None of this matters much to the electorate of Aldershot though. It isn't a particularly plush or glamorous place, but its military heritage makes it a safe bet for any kind of Conservative candidate.
03/05/01 AGM Email:
Tories to hold. The majority is too large. hwever the Libs dems have a brilliant candidate
07/05/01 Pseudonym 'Disraeli' Email:
In 1997 this constituency was symptomatic of other constituencies in the South East; those disillusioned with the Tories switched their allegiance to the Liberal Democrats rather than having the stomach to put their cross next to Labour. Even then the Tories still won here. Doubtful they will lose in June.

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Last Updated 9 May 2001
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