Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Basingstoke

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Jonathan Hartley
Conservative Party:
Andrew R.F. Hunter
Liberal Democratic Party:
Steven R. Sollitt
UK Independence Party:
Kim Graham

Incumbent:
Andrew Hunter

97 Result:
Nigel Lickley
22,35439.1%
Andrew Hunter
24,75143.3%
Martin Rimmer
9,71417.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,12974.16%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
15,80925.1%
33,69553.5%
12,81920.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
62,97683.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.3%
16-2414.4%
25-3925.2%
40-6526.4%
65 <12.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.3%
Black1.0%
Indian/Pakistani0.9%
Other non-white0.9%

Employment:
Full Time70.1%
Part Time14.2%
Self Employed8.8%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed6.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.0%
II - Managerial/Technical33.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.8%
IV - Partly Skilled13.0%
V - Unskilled3.2%

Misc:
Own Residence70.1%
Rent Residence27.9%
Own Car(s)78.7%
Submissions
Submit Information here

08/05/01 LB Email:
I would not like to call Basingstoke at this point in the election campaign. Labour were exceptionally weak in the 1980s in this prosperous urban growth area but enjoyed a massive swing in 1997 which ran incumbent Tory MP Andrew Hunter very close, and since then the party has hardly lost any ground in local elections and the result in the Euro elections showed a relatively small pro-Tory swing. If there are sigificant numbers of voters who didn't back Labour in 1997 because of worries about its economic competence (or gratitude to the Tories for the economy in 1997) they live in places like Basingstoke. If Labour manage to make gains, Basingstoke will probably be one of them.
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Being in Hants kept Basingstoke Tory--but not by much; and the crypto-New Town (i.e. crypto-Essex Man) qualities of its namesake city renders an over-the-hump Labour gain very, disturbingly, achingly plausible. If the Tories retain, sighs of relief all around--how embarrassing that they have to sigh over keeping *Basingstoke*...
05/06/01 A Basingstoke Voter Email:
With the exposure being given in the media to tactical voting, my prediction is a tactical swing from Lib Dem voters to Labour, thus ensuring that the encumbent Tory MP will be ousted. The Labour party in Basingstoke is emphasing the encumbent Tory MP's extreme right wing views (i do mean EXTREME), which may scare enough Lib Dem's into voting tactically.

Submit Information here
Back to South East Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 6 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster