Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Emily J. Thornberry
Conservative Party:
Julian W.H. Brazier
Liberal Democratic Party:
Peter Wales
Green Party:
Hazel Dawe
UK Independence Party:
David Moore

Julian Brazier

97 Result:
Cheryl Hall
Julian Brazier
Martin Vye
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.8%
65 <23.2%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white1.0%

Full Time60.4%
Part Time17.1%
Self Employed13.5%
Government Schemes0.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.5%
II - Managerial/Technical35.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.0%
IV - Partly Skilled11.4%
V - Unskilled4.6%

Own Residence72.4%
Rent Residence25.0%
Own Car(s)71.2%
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11/05/01 Robbie Email:
I believe that the Conservatives will win this seat because the incumbent Jullien Brazier is very popular locally for standing up against the impending downgrading of our local hospital. This is a major concern of people locally. In recent city council by elections the labour party's vote, who came second in 1997, has collapsed. I therefore predict that this will continue to be Conservative. Assuming uniform swing accross the country then the Liberal Democrats would have 97 seats if they won Canterbury. Something quite unlikely to happen. Tactical voting will not occur since locally the Labour and Liberal Democrats refuse to concede to the other.
15/05/01 PV Email:
The Lib Dems have been working very hard and have enjoyed considerable by-election success in the past year or two. I would expect them to push past Labour into 2nd place and cut the Conservative majority here.
20/05/01 Daniel Hamilton Email:daniel@hamiltonholdings.co.uk
Right-winger Julian Brazier will have no problems holding onto this precious piece of Conservative ground. Many local issues have made the Conservatives seem much more attractive to local voters, chiefly, the downgrading of the Canterbury Hospitals by the Labour government. Having served as MP for the past 14 years Julian Brazier has worked extremely hard in the local community to win support for his causes and help ordinary people. The Lib Dem candidate, Peter Wales, a local teacher is a credable choice but has left it very late in the day to begin campaigning, I therefore predict the Lib Dems will remain in third place in Canterbury. This is the same for Labour, whose candidate, Emily Thornberry has not attended any public meetings and has distributed one small leaflet announcing her candidacy. Canterbury Conservatives have maintained a healthy presense on the city council and hold half of the county council seats in the area.
26/05/01 Ian Wessels Email:
Labour could conceivably take this seat, if there is any swing to Labour nationally. In 1997, many floating voters voted Liberal tactically because the liberals were in clear second place in 1992. In 2001, these floating voters may shift to the Labour Party. There was anecdotal evidence of even Labour supporters voting Liberal in 1997 in a botched tactical vote. Thsi is an academic city, with mostly middle class white collar workers who are quite capable of voting strategically. Evident animosity between Liberal and Labour activists will not affect the vast majority of left-centre voters who have little or no interest in squabbles in the council chamber.
31/05/01 Daniel Hamilton Email:dude29291@yahoo.co.uk
I agree with the points made above by Ian - this seat is one that could, in theory be a Labour gain but, trust me it will not happen. I have been out on the road every day for the past week and the Conservatives in Canterbury and Whitstable are, I assure you, are set to increase their majority. There is very, very little local hostility towards the Conservatives. Julian Brazier appears to be extremely popular on the doorstep, with people responding excellently to the campaign literature etc. The Lib Dems cannot be seen anywhere - their latest leaflet in the middle of a cheap, local newspaper called 'Adscene', which is thrown away by about 70% of people. Labour has published its election address but that doesn't seem to have changed anything at all. Emily Thornberry is a lawyer from Islington and people know that. I assure you, the Conservatives will hold this one. I strongly suggest you ammend your page to this effect.
31/05/01 Daniel Hamilton Email:daniel@hamiltonholdings.co.uk
The local newspaper for the district, the Kent Messenger has the following poll prediction in it today: ODDS TO WIN - Conservatives: 1/4, Labour: 5/2, Liberal Democrats: 25/1. Out again today, the Conservatives are doing much better than expected.
01/06/01 Angus Rorison Email:arorison@hotmail.com
From the result of the 1997 election it is clear that the majority of Canterbury residents do not support the Conservatives. I agree that there was 'botched' tactical voting at that election, with Labour accusing the Liberal voters of keeping Brazier in parliament. The Liberal and Labour vote was primarily an anti-Conservative one, and because of the split, it failed. Despite some good work on the council, the Liberals are likely to finish second this time. I am sure, that with less apathy, and thoughts of 'wasted' votes, the Liberals could take Canterbury, and even the Green party could do well. UKIP are unlikely to have the impact of the Referendum party in 1997. Yet another Conservative victory, I'm afraid.
03/06/01 Robbie Email:
This is obviously going to be a Conservative hold. If you look at the Labour party literature it is full of references to the effect that only they can beet the Conservatives and quote the fact that they got more votes than the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrat literature if full of misleading information about how only they can beat the tories. The LibDems claim only they can beet the Tories since they have 18 councillors, the Tories have 18 and Labour have only 13. However this is misleading, in the Canterbury constituency the LibDems currently only have 11 councillors, the Labour party have 10 and the Conservatives have 15. Also, in 1999 the Labour and Liberal Democrats both won the same number of seats on the city council but the Labour party won more votes than the Liberal Democrats. The fact is that if any one is to take this constituency off the Conservatives then it will be Labour. However, as has been mentioned previously, the people of th! is constituency realise that it was the Labour health secretary who decided to downgrade the local hospital and that the Conservative MP stood up against this decision and has played an important role in fighting to retain services at the hospital that would have been lost had it not been for Brazier's intervention. The LibDems will decieve people into believing that only they can beet the conservatives and this will split the shrinking anti-tory vote in this constituency. Also, since the election is occuring after the university has broken up for holidays it means there will not be anywhere near as many students voting as last time and the absence of the predominently Labour voting students of this city will only benefit the Conservatives. All these factors will prevent a Thornberry win, and a Brazier victory.
There is no way the Labour party will gain this seat. The students are on holiday now, most of them would have voted Labour if they were here. Without the student vote it will be much harder for Labour to win. The LibDems will take votes of the Labour party because they have made people think that only they can beet the tories. These factors will all serverely disadvantage the Labour party. Plus people have not forgotten that it was Frank Dobson who decided to downgrade the hospital. This has made Labour very unpopular and caused them to loose the Marshside by election. Labour will not win here. Also Cheryl Hall would have recieved lots of votes from people who remembered her as an actress. Now we have a relitively unknown Labour candidate and people will therefore be less willing to turn out and vote Labour.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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