Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Folkestone and Hythe

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Albert-Martin Catterall
Conservative Party:
Rt. Hon. Michael Howard
Liberal Democratic Party:
Peter Carroll
UK Independence Party:
John Baker

Rt Hon Michael Howard

97 Result:
Peter Doherty
Michael Howard
David Laws
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.6%
65 <24.7%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.5%

Full Time60.7%
Part Time14.9%
Self Employed14.2%
Government Schemes0.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.5%
II - Managerial/Technical31.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.4%
IV - Partly Skilled15.1%
V - Unskilled4.2%

Own Residence73.3%
Rent Residence24.6%
Own Car(s)69.2%
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18/04/01 NG Email:
This should be a reasonably straight-forward win for Michael Howard who, despite the fact that his parents were refugees to this country, may well play on the immigration card in what is a particularly sensitive area for such issues. The only threat to Mr Howard could come if the Labour vote drops back to its 1992 level (a loss of 12%) and is transfered towards the Liberal Democrats, who were nearly pushed into third place in 97 despite a strong showing in 1992. It seems unlikely that such a massive swing will occur but it will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems manage to re-establish their second placing here in Folkestone or whether it will become a new three-way seat.
27/04/01 NMF Email:
Following the selection of hard-working prospective candidate Peter Carroll the Lib Dems have gone from strength to strength in this seat. They have won some stunning by-election victories - gaining seats from Tories and Labour alike. Howard's majority, while reasonable on paper, is susceptable to a strong tactical vote which seems increasingly likely.
29/04/01 MG Email:
I would expect a very close result in Folkestone & Hythe. The Lib Dems are working very hard and Labour have virtually disappeared from the map. Sitting MP Michael Howard is very unpopular and the Lib Dem hopeful Peter Carroll has achieved a high media profile, appearing on the World at One last week on Radio 4, Meridian TV, Radio Kent as well as mentions in the Guardian and the Daily Mail.
20/05/01 Daniel Hamilton Email:daniel@hamiltonholdings.co.uk
Despite a strong challenge from the Lib Dems, high profle, former Home Secretary, Michael Howard should hold his seat. His high profile and personal popularity will win through against the strong challenge.
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
If it wasn't for Michael Howard's stature within the Tory caucus, people wouldn't fixate so much on Folkestone & Hythe as a key "break the tactical snarl" target--after all, there were so many other '97 Tories in a similar or even more treacherous situation. But F&H's come to be a paradigm for its sort of electoral conundrum. Go figure.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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