Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Lewes

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Paul A. Richards
Conservative Party:
Simon Sinnatt
Liberal Democratic Party:
Norman J. Baker
UK Independence Party:
John Harvey

Incumbent:
Norman Baker

97 Result:
Mark Paton
5,23210.6%
Tim Rathbone
19,95040.6%
Norman Baker
21,25043.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,16976.42%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
4,2708.2%
26,63851.3%
20,30139.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,88681.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.3%
16-2410.1%
25-3917.4%
40-6527.5%
65 <27.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.0%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time59.3%
Part Time17.9%
Self Employed16.2%
Government Schemes0.5%
Unemployed6.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.0%
II - Managerial/Technical41.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)20.0%
IV - Partly Skilled10.9%
V - Unskilled4.7%

Misc:
Own Residence77.7%
Rent Residence19.6%
Own Car(s)73.6%
Submissions
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19/04/01 NG Email:
One of the Commons' most well-known and awkward MPs, Norman Baker (aka The Man Who Brought Down Mandelson) faces an uphill struggle here in Lewes. His local reputation may earn him brownie points but even a small Tory revival will put him into dangerous water. It will be an interesting but very tightly-fought contest.
01/05/01 PSE Email:
Norman Baker is very high profile and has a reputation for working hard. Although a close run thing last time, an increased majority is predicted.
03/06/01 HD Email:northwestnow@hotmail.com
Hmmm. I think Paul Richards is running an excellent campaign and win increase his vote substantially - he did it from a very low base in Billericay in 1997 and can do the same in Lewes. After all, he wrote the book "How to Win an Election" - although he has never actually won one himself . . . Baker only needs a small rise in the Labour vote to deny him the seat, so while a Labour win might be a little too much to expect, I think a Lib Dem loss is highly likely.
03/06/01 Vas Kapsalis Email:vas@altavista.net
03 June 01 Looks like a Conservative Victory now. There seems to be a lot of concern locally about Mr Baker's lack of interest in the constituency. Meanwhile Simon Sinnatt has been fighting a very effective campaign. Last time Labour voters are switching to the Conservatives in droves, realising they are fed up with Blair and that only the Conservatives can provide effective opposition.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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