Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
New Forest East

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Alan G.W. Goodfellow
Conservative Party:
Julian M. Lewis
Liberal Democratic Party:
Brian Dash

Incumbent:
Dr Julian Lewis

97 Result:
Malcolm Leatherdale
12,16124.8%
Julian Lewis
21,05342.9%
George Dawson
15,83832.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,05274.64%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,70412.7%
27,98053.1%
17,63233.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,73981.9%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.0%
16-2411.7%
25-3922.0%
40-6528.1%
65 <18.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.2%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time64.2%
Part Time17.5%
Self Employed11.4%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed6.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.2%
II - Managerial/Technical34.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.7%
IV - Partly Skilled13.4%
V - Unskilled4.2%

Misc:
Own Residence81.0%
Rent Residence16.6%
Own Car(s)83.8%
Submissions
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15/05/01 NG Email:
Now, if the Tories make any headway in 2001 they should hang on to New Forest East which they did indeed manage to hold on to in 1997. However, it looks like the Lib Dems are campaigning quite hard in this one and, above all, are trying to squeeze a sizeable Labour vote. They only need to push it back to its 1992 levels (which is not wholly unreasonable, a 12% tactical swing) and Julian Lewis may find himself unemployed. Probably a Tory hold but a little difficult to call until we know how much tactical voting there will be this time round.

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Last Updated 17 May 2001
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