Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Portsmouth North

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Sydney N.J. Rapson
Conservative Party:
Chris Day
Liberal Democratic Party:
Darren Sanders
UK Independence Party:
William McCabe

Incumbent:
Sydney Rapson

97 Result:
Syd Rapson
21,33947.1%
Peter Griffiths
17,01637.6%
Steve Sollitt
4,78810.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
45,27070.14%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
16,61033.2%
25,36850.7%
7,52915.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,01876.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.2%
16-2412.3%
25-3922.7%
40-6524.6%
65 <19.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.4%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.5%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time63.3%
Part Time17.1%
Self Employed9.3%
Government Schemes1.2%
Unemployed9.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.1%
II - Managerial/Technical24.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.5%
IV - Partly Skilled14.4%
V - Unskilled5.7%

Misc:
Own Residence73.3%
Rent Residence24.2%
Own Car(s)66.0%
Submissions
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02/05/01 JR Email:
Syd Rapson scored one of the first Labour gains of the night in 1997 when he ousted veteran Tory Peter Griffiths, a man who had originally represented the Birmingham Smethwick seat in the 1960s after a campaign that included the slogan "if you want a nigger for a neighbour vote Liberal or Labour". Griffiths was branded a 'parliamentary leper' at the time by Harold Wilson. When he returned as an MP in 1979 here in Portsmouth he had mellowed somewhat, becoming yet another low-flying and low profile socially conservative Tory backbencher. Although Labour performed poorly in Portsmouth's local elections last year, losing control to a Tory minority administration, Rapson has an excellent local base which should get him reelected. Before becoming an MP he was a city councillor for almost thirty years, and despite getting an MP's salary still lives locally on the inner-city Paulsgrove estate. Labour have always underperformed in Portsmouth, which is quite deprived in parts. This is probably because of the its status as the nation's premier naval port. However, Labour announced in the Comprehensive Spending Review a three-year increase in defence spending (the first i ncrease under either party for twelve years), and that should impress a lot of people in Portsmouth.

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Last Updated 3 May 2001
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