Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Stephen Roberts
Conservative Party:
Paul Raynes
Liberal Democratic Party:
Sandra J. Gidley
UK Independence Party:
Anthony McCabe

Sandra Gidley

97 Result:
Joanne Ford
Michael Colvin
Mark Cooper
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1620.0%
65 <17.7%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.7%

Full Time63.4%
Part Time17.9%
Self Employed12.8%
Government Schemes0.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional12.0%
II - Managerial/Technical41.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.3%
IV - Partly Skilled9.5%
V - Unskilled3.0%

Own Residence79.0%
Rent Residence17.3%
Own Car(s)84.4%
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09/04/01 NG
Losing Romsey to the Lib Dems (especially when in opposition) was a massive blow for the Tories. Even in the last few days before the by-election, Conservatives were still predicting a comfortable win. Sandra Gidley is an amiable MP who has quickly built up a strong local reputation. Admittedly she has a hard fight on her hands but if she can win over the Labour vote and keep the Tories at bay, this could be a shock Lib Dem gain from the Tories on the night.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
The fact that the Tories lost this at the byelection was a fluke. The opposition has been able in the past to peel Tory seats off in byelections, but they almost always return to the Conservative fold at the general election. This constituency's long Conservative heritage will reassert itself on 7 June and Ms Gidley's brief and unlikely tenure at Westminster will be ended.
24/05/01 Alex Macfie Email:alex@flagboy.demon.co.uk
This one's too close to call. The LibDem win at the 2000 by-election was due mainly to a tactical squeeze on the Labour vote. This vote is likely to stay with the LibDems, and in fact the Labour vote may even be squeezed further, as has happened after past by-elections where the LibDems won from the Tories. The by-election happened recently enough for people to remember the tactical situation. However, if the Tory vote returns to the general election level, the seat would be at a knife-edge. And, of course, the Tories could do better than that --- 1997 was, after all, a particularly bad year for them. With the LibDems assured of all but the hardest Labour vote, this seat depends almost entirely on the relative strengths of the Tories and LibDems. And it could go either way, probably with a tiny majority.
26/05/01 GS Email:
Too close to call. Gidley has become a strong local MP, but the seat is too conservative at heart. It'll be an interesting struggle, with a fairly low majority whichever way it goes.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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