Election Prediction Project
British General Election
South Thanet

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Stephen J. Ladyman
Conservative Party:
Mark C. MacGregor
Liberal Democratic Party:
Guy Voizey
UK Independence Party:
Terence Ecott

Dr Stephen Ladyman

97 Result:
Stephen Ladyman
Jonathan Aitken
Barbara Hewett-Si
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.7%
65 <25.9%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.6%

Full Time57.9%
Part Time15.9%
Self Employed14.8%
Government Schemes1.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.5%
II - Managerial/Technical28.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.0%
IV - Partly Skilled14.7%
V - Unskilled6.0%

Own Residence74.3%
Rent Residence23.8%
Own Car(s)64.4%
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11/05/01 Robbie Email:
I believe that Thanet South will return to the Conservative fold this year because the issue of assylum seakers is a very strong issue in East Kent and will cause many voters in traditional tory seats in east kent, such as this one, to vote Conservative again. Also, Thanet South will not have Jonathan Aitkin standing as the Conservative party candidate and there were probably several voters who would have not voted Conservative thanks to him being the candidate but will be happy to again now that they have a candidate who does not have any conections with anything sleazy.
18/05/01 Paul R Davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
I very much agree with Robbie's succinct summary of the two main reasons why this seat will return to the Conservatives. Even with the problems of Jonathan Aitken, this was still an astonishing seat for Labour to have ever won. Friends in the area speak much as Robbie suggests locals will. A definite gain.
20/05/01 Daniel Hamilton Email:daniel@hamiltonholdings.co.uk
Mark MacGregor, the Conservative candidate for this seat should have no problems taking it off the incumbent, Dr Steve Ladyman. Ladyman is deeply unpopular with the residents of SThanet as well as some of his own Labour MPs. The downgrading of hospitals across the county of Kent has been largely attributed to Ladyman. Over the past few months the SThanet Labour Party has been doing nothing in the local area to try and save this seat, whilst the Conservatives have been working 24/7 to regain control. Mark MacGregor can expect a comfortable majority.
22/05/01 Daniel Hamilton Email:daniel@hamiltonholdings.co.uk
I must say that I disagree with the fact that Aitken lost this seat for the Tories. I have been campaigning in this seat for a certain party and the Aitken issue has not been mentioned once. Aylum is the reason the Tories will take this seat off Labour. Another issue, mainly for the South of the consitituency is the downgrading of the Canterbury hospital by the Labour govt.
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
At the risk of stretching things, one wonders if an event like the Oldham race riots might have oh-so-distant reverb here, in giving the asylum hot potato a Timothy McVeighish distasteful aura. Anyway, if Ladyman's reelected, it'll be by default--and neither asylum nor Aitken's the full reason for the default...
30/05/01 William Ian Wessels Email:
Thanet North is statistically the most winnable Conservative seat for Labour in Kent. The present British General Election prediction (30/5/01)puts Canterbury - the second most winnable seat for the Labour Party as presently too close to call. This surely is even more true of Thanet North, which has less than 3000 between Labour and the Tories. The only less favourable aspect of Thanet North for Labour (in comparison to Canterbury), is that it lacks a pool of Liberal voters to vote tactically.
31/05/01 Marcus da Costa Email:
Mark Macgregor Will win this seat back from Dr Ladyman for several reasons: 1)The policy on asylum has proven to be a mess and the tories offer a real solution to the problem 2)The ridiculous and unfounded attacks on the local grammar schools by Dr Ladyman 3)Public opinion despite what the opinion polls show has turned against labour

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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