Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Southampton, Itchen

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. John Y. Denham
Conservative Party:
Caroline Nokes
Liberal Democratic Party:
Mark G. Cooper
UK Independence Party:
Kim Rose
Socialist Alliance:
Gavin Marsh

Incumbent:
Rt Hon John Denham

97 Result:
John Denham
29,49854.8%
Peter Fleet
15,28928.4%
David Harrison
6,28911.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,85870.06%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
25,11844.0%
24,06542.1%
7,92413.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,10777.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.6%
16-2413.0%
25-3922.7%
40-6524.9%
65 <18.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White95.8%
Black0.9%
Indian/Pakistani2.3%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time61.1%
Part Time16.5%
Self Employed9.8%
Government Schemes1.1%
Unemployed11.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.2%
II - Managerial/Technical22.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)33.2%
IV - Partly Skilled15.6%
V - Unskilled6.4%

Misc:
Own Residence60.9%
Rent Residence38.1%
Own Car(s)64.1%
Submissions
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10/05/01 LB Email:
Itchen is the more traditionally Labour part of the city but the defection of sitting Labour MP Bob Mitchell to the SDP disrupted patterns here; the Conservatives won in 1983 and 1987 but when the ex-SDP vote went back to Labour in 1992 the seat fell to John Denham. Denham was formerly a radical left winger but is now regarded as a highly competent Blairite minister and a possibility for the Cabinet. The Conservatives have been a declining force in Southampton and in local elections the Liberal Democrats were ahead here in 2000 but it is most probable that Denham should win a third term in a seat which was Labour from its creation in 1950 until 1983, and voted Labour even when the Tories won the election in 1992.

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Last Updated 11 May 2001
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