Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Bridgwater

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
William J. Monteith
Conservative Party:
Ian R.P. Liddell-Grainger
Liberal Democratic Party:
Ian Thorn

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Tom King CH

97 Result:
Roger Lavers
13,51924.8%
Tom King
20,17436.9%
Michael Hoban
18,37833.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,62274.79%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
12,36521.7%
26,61046.8%
16,89429.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,91080.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.8%
16-2411.8%
25-3919.4%
40-6527.4%
65 <22.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.5%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time55.9%
Part Time17.2%
Self Employed16.9%
Government Schemes1.4%
Unemployed8.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.3%
II - Managerial/Technical27.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)31.1%
IV - Partly Skilled17.1%
V - Unskilled5.1%

Misc:
Own Residence72.5%
Rent Residence25.2%
Own Car(s)76.1%
Submissions
Submit Information here

19/04/01 NG Email:
The Tories should hang on to Bridgwater but there is a sizeable Labour vote up for grabs and the Lib Dems were just close enough to Tom King in 1997 that they could threaten, with a bit of tactical voting, to topple the Tories here. It will be a hard-fought and very tight contest.
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
More than Michael Howard's seat, *this* epitomises how the tactical-vote gearbox could sometimes upchuck in '97 (though with such a huge Labour majority, it was meaningless in the end). While LD was the clear non-Tory choice in the other Somerset seats, this was Somerset's version of Falmouth & Camborne--the odd-man-out with a true Labour base. Yet w/LD (a 4-point increase) and Labour (3 points) Tweedle Dee'n'Dumming itself over who was the better tactical bet, Tom King goofed back in with a lower percentage than either of the two Somerset Tory incumbents who *were* defeated! (He probably also had a lower '92 percentage than any other reelected Tory.) Maybe this time, now that Tom King's retired following his free bonus term, the opposition'll get it right...

Submit Information here
Back to South West Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 6 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster