Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Bristol West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Valerie J. Davey
Conservative Party:
Pamela J. Chesters
Liberal Democratic Party:
Stephen R. Williams
Green Party:
John Devaney
UK Independence Party:
Simon D. Muir

Valerie Davey

97 Result:
Valerie Davey
William Waldegrave
Charles Boney
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1616.4%
65 <18.4%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white2.0%

Full Time63.7%
Part Time12.8%
Self Employed12.6%
Government Schemes1.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional17.8%
II - Managerial/Technical43.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)11.1%
IV - Partly Skilled7.0%
V - Unskilled2.0%

Own Residence65.3%
Rent Residence33.1%
Own Car(s)70.4%
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18/04/01 NG Email:
With the exception perhaps of Aberdeen South, Bristol West is one of the most bewlidering seats to predict. Won by a big swing to Labour (who leap-frogged the Lib Dems to take first place) in 1997, less than seven percent separates the three parties. One might expect a swing back to the Tories at this election but signs are that the Tories may have peaked here and, especially locally, the Lib Dems seem to be edging ahead. With a tight three-cornered contest, who knows what will happen on election night.
12/05/01 N Starling Email:
The Labour party have lost virtually all their council seats since 1997 to the lib Dems whilst the Tories hardly feature in the constituency. I think this is one of the best chances of a Lib Dem gain of Labour anywhere in the UK.
20/05/01 KJ Email:
I think this one could go to the Liberal Democrats. There is a fair amount of local dissatisfaction with Labour, largely due to the antics of the Labour-run Bristol City Council. The Lib Dems have made a number of council gains and the Conservatives have been consistently losing ground here - not to mention that their share of the vote is likely to be eroded by the UKIP candidate on polling day. I think that, much like Labour did in 1997, the Lib Dems will come from 3rd place to take this seat.
03/06/01 Jezza Email:jezza@hotwells.freeserve.co.uk
Disenchanted Labour voters will vote Lib-Dem to give Stephen Willialms the result. Tories in decline here.
03/06/01 A Smith Email:
In my opinion, the Liberal Democrats have scaled down their campaign in Bristol West inorder to prioritise resources into other constituencies in the South West, such as Wells, and this is reflected the the nationally vocal campiagn for Lib-Lad tactical voting to oust sitting Tory MPs.
05/06/01 KJ Email:
As a Bristol West resident, I have to disagree. I can't see any "scaling down" of the Lib Dem effort. The Lib Dems hold the vast majority of the City Council seats in this constituency (fifteen out of twenty - the Tories hold four and Labour one) and they are going for this seat in a big way - indeed, Charles Kennedy was here at College Green at a Lib Dem rally only a week or two ago.
The Conservatives are conspicuous by their absence. Some private polls suggest that their vote has essentially collapsed in this constituency (with the exception of some Tory "strongholds" such as Westbury-on-Trym and Stoke Bishop), making it a two-horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems.
Labour only took this seat in 1997 on the national "swing" and it appears that many of those 1997 Labour converts are dissatisfied with Labour because of their record in the City Council (where they currently have overall control) and nationally. The fact that local elections are being held on the same day in some wards in this constituency could well swing the tide of opinion further away from Labour. It's a long way from being a lost cause for Labour, and they are campaigning hard to keep the seat, but if I had to place a bet, I would bet on them losing it to the Lib Dems.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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