Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Northavon

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Robert Hall
Conservative Party:
Carrie H. Ruxton
Liberal Democratic Party:
Steven J. Webb

Incumbent:
Steven Webb

97 Result:
Ron Stone
9,76715.6%
John Cope
24,36339.0%
Steven Webb
26,50042.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
62,53079.21%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,62512.1%
32,70051.8%
21,75934.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
63,13384.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.5%
16-2413.7%
25-3922.4%
40-6529.8%
65 <13.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.1%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time65.2%
Part Time16.8%
Self Employed12.2%
Government Schemes0.8%
Unemployed5.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.4%
II - Managerial/Technical36.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.5%
IV - Partly Skilled11.8%
V - Unskilled2.6%

Misc:
Own Residence84.3%
Rent Residence13.9%
Own Car(s)87.0%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
Steve Webb will have a tough time holding Northavon. Local and European election results do not bode well and Webb does not even have a particularly large Labour vote to squeeze. It's going to be a close contest in Northavon.
12/05/01 N Starling Email:Starling@nejs.fsworld.co.uk
A stunning set of local election results for th Lib Dems in 1999 and an excellent high profile candidate in Steve Webb sleads me to the conclusion that he will win again this time. Also, the Tory is not local and will be seen as an outsider.
03/06/01 AL Email:
Despite a carefully chosen media friendly candidate with a 'progressive Tory' image, it will be hard to win back essential voters who have no reason to be unhappy with what Steve Webb and the local Lib Dems have achieved since '97.The Tory party as a whole is not wooing the public and despite an active campaign,the local candidate(who will make it to Westminster one day-no doubt)has done little to convince us that local concerns are a genuine priority.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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