Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Stroud

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
David A. Drew
Conservative Party:
Neil Carmichael
Liberal Democratic Party:
Janice Beasley
Green Party:
Kevin Cranston
UK Independence Party:
Adrian Blake

Incumbent:
David Drew

97 Result:
David Drew
26,17042.0%
Roger Knapman
23,26037.3%
Paul Hodgkinson
9,50215.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
62,34780.45%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
18,45129.4%
29,03246.2%
13,58221.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
62,78383.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.6%
16-2412.1%
25-3919.8%
40-6528.5%
65 <20.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time61.7%
Part Time17.0%
Self Employed14.4%
Government Schemes0.8%
Unemployed6.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.5%
II - Managerial/Technical35.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.5%
IV - Partly Skilled12.1%
V - Unskilled4.5%

Misc:
Own Residence75.4%
Rent Residence22.8%
Own Car(s)78.9%
Submissions
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17/05/01 J Smith Email:
Labour benefited from a drop in Conservatives support and from Liberal Democrats voting strategically. Labour will hold this seat, though some support will return to the Tories and Liberals.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
A pleasantly unlikely sort of Labour pickup in '97--and they picked up from somebody who's now running (elsewhere) under the UKIP banner. If any ebbing support's going to Tories, then this should be counted vulnerable. Unlikely as it may seem (and it may make a difference in who's elected), the Green Party has legs here. If anyone's up to making a prediction of a Green victory in Stroud, go ahead. I'm abstaining.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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