Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Christopher Bain
Conservative Party:
Patrick C.M. Nicholls
Liberal Democratic Party:
Richard A. Younger-Ross
UK Independence Party:
Paul Exmouth

Patrick Nicholls

97 Result:
Sue Dann
Patrick Nicholls
Richard Younger-R
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1617.4%
65 <26.4%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.3%

Full Time55.2%
Part Time17.5%
Self Employed19.1%
Government Schemes1.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.0%
II - Managerial/Technical33.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.4%
IV - Partly Skilled12.5%
V - Unskilled4.8%

Own Residence79.2%
Rent Residence19.3%
Own Car(s)76.9%
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12/04/01 NG Email:
In theory, Teignbridge should stay Tory - local election and 1999 Euro Election results point to a straight-forward, if narrow, Tory victory. However, stranger things have happened and if the Lib Dems win any seat in the South West on election night, it is likely to be Teignbridge. Defending a tiny majority, the Tories also have to contend with a large-ish Labour vote which, if squeezed enough, might just hand the seat to the Lib Dems who in turn will be helped by having a well-known local candidate. If it weren't for the Romsey by-election and the Tories' failure to pick up significantly in the polls, Teignbridge should be a narrow win for the Tories but, at the moment, it's just too close to call.
29/04/01 CM Email:
Although the Tories held on only narrowly in 97, all the signs point to an easier ride for them this time. The Tories had a very good set of local election results in 1999, gaining many seats from the Lib Dems. The Euro election results were devastating for the Lib Dems, with the Tories "winning" the seat, and the Lib Dems coming 4th with just 15% of the vote. Tory hold.
02/05/01 E. Gardener Email:
Work has taken me down Newton Abbot and Teignmouth recently. There was a great deal of dissaistaction with incumbant Tory - lots about his Record on extra Parliamentary income from consultancies etc. And almost every Labour supporter I met was voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out. If the odds are good on this one, I'd get some money on the Lib Dems. - E Gardener
03/06/01 PSR Email:
This is my constituency! (obviously not literally mine). If you had asked me at the start of the campaign to predict the result, I would have said Tory hold, with a heavy heart as Patrick Nicholls has never held a surgery in my town in the last 18 years, has many other jobs and doesn't even live in the constituency. However now I'm not so sure, the place is flooded with Lib Dem posters even in strong Labour areas and the amount of tactical voting will clearly decide it. P.S : The BBC has asked for camera room at the count (sign of a shock?) P.P.S : My sister-in-law will be a teller at the count (just thought I'd mention it!)

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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