Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Aberavon

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
D. Hywel Francis
Conservative Party:
Ali Miraj
Liberal Democratic Party:
Christopher Davies
Plaid Cymru:
Lisa Turnbull

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Sir John Morris QC

97 Result:
John Morris
25,65071.3%
Peter Harper
2,8357.9%
Ron McConville
4,07911.3%
Phil Cockwell
20885.81%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
35,96371.89%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
26,87767.1%
5,56713.9%
4,99912.5%
1,9194.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,06977.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.8%
16-2411.7%
25-3920.5%
40-6526.7%
65 <21.3%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.2%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.2%

Employment:
Full Time64.4%
Part Time15.0%
Self Employed7.0%
Government Schemes2.2%
Unemployed11.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.5%
II - Managerial/Technical19.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)34.4%
IV - Partly Skilled19.9%
V - Unskilled8.3%

Misc:
Own Residence70.4%
Rent Residence28.7%
Own Car(s)60.8%
Submissions
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23/04/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
John Morris is standing down in the seat that he's held since 1959, but I wouldn't anticipate a turnover to occur just yet. Easy Lab hold.
24/04/01 JR Email:
Labour's longest serving MP is retiring this time - former Secretary of State for Wales and Attorney-General John Morris has served forty-two years in the House of Commons. A change of candidate should however make no difference in this, one of the safest of safe Labour seats.
24/05/01 GK Email:
Labour- obviously. They had a huge win here last time and I don't see any reason to doubt a victory margin of over 20%.
01/06/01 GK Email:g
Note that Labour's '97 victory margin was smaller than their '92 victory margin. Nevertheless, Labour is going to retain almost every seat they have. PC has a chance but this is likely staying Labour.

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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