Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Huw W.E. Edwards
Conservative Party:
Roger K. Evans
Liberal Democratic Party:
Neil Parker
Plaid Cymru:
Marc Hubbard
UK Independence Party:
David J. Rowlands

Huw Edwards

97 Result:
Huw Edwards
Roger Evans
Mark Williams
Alan Cotton
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.2%
65 <21.7%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.3%

Full Time59.7%
Part Time15.8%
Self Employed16.6%
Government Schemes1.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.7%
II - Managerial/Technical39.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)23.3%
IV - Partly Skilled11.8%
V - Unskilled2.8%

Own Residence74.4%
Rent Residence23.0%
Own Car(s)78.3%
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15/04/01 Vote Watch Email:
Likelt that Monmouth will revert back to usual behaviour and elect a Conservative to Westminster in 2001. Labour have let their chance go with this seat. In the Welsh Assembly Elections the Tories polled strongly enough to beat Labour, who at the time were having more than a few local 'difficulties'. Labour strength has diminshed since 1997, and local election evidence shows that they have little of an infrastructure outside the main urban centres of Monmouth, Chepstow and Abergavenny (i.e. they cannot even find members to stand). Liberal strength in and around Monmouth and Wye Valley south to Chepstow. However, recent local by-election in Abergavenny saw the Lib Dems poll only 22 votes. Monmouth will return to its Conservative voting tradition
21/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
Whether Labour have organisation in the rural rightwing parts of the seat is immaterial, the fact is they have already shown twice that they can win here (the 1991 byelection, and General Election 1997). Local issues clouded things in the 1999 Assembly election. Monmouth is a diverse bellwether marginal which will go with the national tide. Huw Edwards will get back in here.
29/04/01 CM Email:
This is one of the most marginal Labour seats in Wales, and has to be one of the most likely Tory gains at the next election, especially after the Tory win in the Welsh Assembly elections. The Conservatives have rebuilt their organisation locally, and have had some good local election results as well. Tory gain.
02/05/01 Alex Macfie Email:alex@flagboy.demon.co.uk
Monmouth is a prosperous rural area, and a seat which Labour win only in their best years. Before the 1991 by-election, it last fell to Labour in 1966. Therefore it was not at all surprising that the one Conservative win in the constituency seats in the Assembly election was here. And for the next Westminster election, the seat will probably revert to its usual true-blue colours. Plaid Cymru will do badly, as usual. Monmouth is English in all but name (it voted strongly against the Assembly). The Liberal Democrats, too, are out of the picture.
03/05/01 Pete Email:warposters@yahoo.com
Indeed this seat is a marginal, I would not be at all surpised if the Liberal Democrats will win it this year.
13/05/01 PSR Email:
The Lib Dems are certainly not going to come within spitting distance of this seat but the real contest between Labour and the Tories will be a close one. The Tories did very well to take this seat in the Assembly elections (especially as they couldn't gain Clwyd West)and the former MP Roger Evans stands a good chance. However it is important to remember that it was turnout that cost Labour seats in the Assembly and turnout is likely to be a lot higher in a General Election (80% even in 1997). So I wouldn't be surprised to see Huw Edwards cling on.
03/06/01 Disraeli Email:
The gloomy polls for the Conservatives are based nationally, not regionally. This seat is likely to revert back to the Conservatives as the majority held by the Labour incumbent is not so difficult to overcome.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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