Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Christopher J. Bryant
Conservative Party:
Peter Hobbins
Liberal Democratic Party:
Gavin Cox
Plaid Cymru:
Leanne Wood

Allan Rogers

97 Result:
Allan Rogers
Stephen Whiting
Rodney Berman
Leanne Wood
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1620.7%
65 <20.9%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.2%

Full Time60.3%
Part Time12.6%
Self Employed8.4%
Government Schemes2.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional2.3%
II - Managerial/Technical19.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)37.2%
IV - Partly Skilled17.5%
V - Unskilled6.5%

Own Residence78.0%
Rent Residence21.2%
Own Car(s)54.9%
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24/04/01 JR Email:
Pretty much the same prediction as for Islwyn. A rock solid Labour seat which amazed everyone by voting Plaid Cymru in the assembly elections. Will stay Labour when the Government is at stake, but can no longer be taken for granted.
29/04/01 Lyn David Thomas Email:
I think that Labour would be very mistaken to be too complacent about this seat. Plaid Cymru won it in the National Assembly Elections and took control of the Council of which it is a part. They have selected a man perceived by some Labour activists as a carpet bagger (and worse a former Tory). He is also openly gay - something that again has put off some Labour supporters from working too enthusiastically for him. On the other hand the Plaid candidate is a popular local councillor. My guess is this seat really will be too close to call. If Labour lose it then they are in deep trouble in Wales.
27/05/01 Liam Email:
I think this will be the biggest target for the new Plaid Cymru. I think that Labour is felt not to have delivered for South Wales. PC offer a more radical programme.
31/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
If you think all those '97 Tory-Lab swings of 16, 17, 18% were dramatic, the 1997-to-1999 Lab-PC swings in Rhondda and Islwyn were a mind-boggling *35%*!?! Though somehow, I think that it was more a case of coal country constituents "acting out" a hitherto repressed discomfort w/rubberstamping their typical obesely-mandated Labour juggernaut at Westminster, and they could do so more with greater ease through the Welsh Assembly's clean-slate situation. And the case still holds--I think that now that the regional-parliament lesson's sunk in, that it's safe to vote for an alternative, Labour mandates hereabouts should sober down to something much more orthodox, more along the lines of certain Scottish Labour strongholds where the nationalist party is the clear "second party" of record rather than bobbing around in microscopic C-LD territory. But in 2001, a Westminstrian PC pickup in Rhondda would be outrageously freakish, the stuff of byelections, not general elec! tions. Instead, look for the biggest anti-Labour swings of this election by far--and even a 20% swing would leave Labour 20 points above PC...

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Last Updated 31 MAy 2001
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