Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Beverley and Holderness

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Philippa Langford
Conservative Party:
James D. Cran
Liberal Democratic Party:
Stewart Willie
UK Independence Party:
Stephen Wallis

Incumbent:
James Cran

97 Result:
Norman O'Neill
20,81839.3%
James Cran
21,62940.9%
John Melling
9,68918.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,94273.62%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
10,98120.1%
29,80054.5%
13,84325.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,68679.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.7%
16-2411.5%
25-3920.1%
40-6529.9%
65 <18.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.6%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time60.8%
Part Time17.9%
Self Employed13.2%
Government Schemes1.5%
Unemployed6.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.5%
II - Managerial/Technical34.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.1%
IV - Partly Skilled13.7%
V - Unskilled4.6%

Misc:
Own Residence78.1%
Rent Residence19.1%
Own Car(s)76.8%
Submissions
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22/04/01 Daily Telegraph A false start to the race
In a briefing to journalists, the CRE said it had circulated copies of the agreement for individual MPs to sign. Less than a third of Tories had done so, compared with 60 per cent of Labour MPs. Only three MPs, all Conservatives, had refused to sign on principle: they were James Cran, a whip, Eric Forth, a maverick Right-winger, and John Townend, the retiring MP who caused a storm by claiming that immigrants were undermining Britian's "homogeneous Anglo-Saxon society".
08/05/01 ZZ Top Email:
Expect Tories to retain, but Lib Dems to move up into second place. Cran is cold and aloof, but his traditional supporters will vote for him despite the publivc view of Hague. Stewart Willie is far better known and liked than the previous Lib Dem candidate, and has the priceless advantages of being a local boy as well as Joint Leader of the East Riding Council. Labour's Langford is unlikely to gain much suport outside the bedrock areas of Withernsea and the depressed end of Beverley. Tories will fear the UKIP candidate, but should scrape in with about 2000 majority.

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Last Updated 9 May 2001
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