Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Kingston upon Hull North

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
J. Kevin McNamara
Conservative Party:
Paul Charlson
Liberal Democratic Party:
Simone Butterworth
UK Independence Party:
Tineka Robinson

Incumbent:
Kevin McNamara

97 Result:
Kevin McNamarra
25,54265.8%
David Lee
5,83715.0%
David Nolan
5,66714.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
38,79456.96%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
26,61955.9%
11,23523.6%
9,50420.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,61265.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1624.1%
16-2415.0%
25-3922.9%
40-6523.1%
65 <15.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.4%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white0.9%

Employment:
Full Time58.3%
Part Time17.0%
Self Employed6.5%
Government Schemes2.5%
Unemployed15.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.7%
II - Managerial/Technical21.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)31.7%
IV - Partly Skilled17.4%
V - Unskilled7.9%

Misc:
Own Residence49.8%
Rent Residence49.2%
Own Car(s)51.5%
Submissions
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02/05/01 JW Email:
This could be a major surprise. Labour are exceedingly unpopular in Hull, and are losing votes dramatically. A low turnout is likely, and the Lib Dems are past masters at getting their vote out. In at least four wards in 1999 they took around 60% of the vote.
03/05/01 None Email:
Whilst it would be a surprise if Labour lost Hull North, this will no doubt be the most interesting of the three Hull seats. With the Lib Dems and the Tories just 200 voted apart in 1997, we can expect the Lib Dems to take second place with relative ease and challenge Labour. Using the most recent local election results, the Lib Dems actually lead Labour in Hull North. Of the seven wards, one is Tory, three are Lib Dem, three are Labour (but one of the three has a strong Independent Labour vote who will cost Labour their "socialist" votes, the Lib Dems are campaigning hard in both the others). A recent by-election in a safe Labour seat saw the Lib Dems miss out by just 57 votes. Could be close.

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Last Updated 3 May 2001
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