Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Leeds North West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Harold Best
Conservative Party:
Adam Pritchard
Liberal Democratic Party:
David N.J. Hall-Matthews

Incumbent:
Harold Best

97 Result:
Harold Best
19,69439.9%
Keith Hampson
15,85032.1%
Barbara Pearce
11,68923.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,37670.57%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
13,78227.3%
21,75043.0%
14,07927.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,55773.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.0%
16-2414.2%
25-3921.3%
40-6526.0%
65 <20.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White94.1%
Black1.1%
Indian/Pakistani3.5%
Other non-white1.4%

Employment:
Full Time63.5%
Part Time17.1%
Self Employed11.0%
Government Schemes1.1%
Unemployed7.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional12.8%
II - Managerial/Technical37.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.4%
IV - Partly Skilled10.4%
V - Unskilled3.1%

Misc:
Own Residence65.8%
Rent Residence32.9%
Own Car(s)66.0%
Submissions
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24/04/01 NG Email:
This will be a rather complex three-way contest and it's difficult to see quite what will happen. Only a handful of votes separated the Lib Dems and Labour in 1992 and Labour came from third place to clinch the seat in 1997 with a 4,000 majority. With a change in both the Lib Dem and Tory candidates, just 8% between the two challengers and the growing Lib Dem strength in Northern cities, it will be a fascinating fight for second place which may also impact the final result.
10/05/01 BR Email:
Labour can't hold on to this seat. The recent local election results have reduced them from 8 councillors in 1997, to only 2 now. The Tories don't seem to have bounced back, though. They only have 4 councillors in the seat, with the LibDems ahead on 6. I think it'll be a close run thing between the Tories and the LibDems. Labour came from 3rd to win in 1997, my money's on the LibDems to do the same in 2001. Their candidate has a highprofile, backed up by his local councillors, and all he needs is for the people who voted LibDem in the local elctions to do the same at the General.
05/06/01 Email:dadge@hotmail.com
I think you have to go with statistics here. Unless Harry's been up to no good I think the other two parties would need a miracle to win here. I'll put a tenner on it!

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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