Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
4:24 PM 28/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
2:05 AM 19/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Ted McMeekin
Progressive Conservative:
Mark Mullins
New Democratic Party:
Kelly Hayes
Green Party:

Ted McMeekin

Federal MP:
John Bryden

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

27466 58.07%

15843 33.5%

3990 8.44%

2000 By-election:


Ted McMeekin
19916 58.75%

Priscilla de Villiers
10201 30.09%
Jessica Brennan
2297 6.78%
Mark Coakley
1405 4.14%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality4 649
John Bryden
19 921 41.2%
Ray Pennings
15 272 31.6%
Gerry Aggus
9 451 19.5%
Gordon Guyatt
3 756 7.8%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation70.40%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born81.73%
Ontario Born74.21%
Visible Minority3.72%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$206120

College/Trade School22765

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The Liberals are as close as a certainty to win this riding as is anything in politics. Distaste for the PCs is rampant and would likely decide the election in any case but amalgamation will make this a cake walk for T.M. I can't see this riding going to the Conservatives for decades. Despite the pundits predictions in the forum, even in Ancaster, judging by the signs, the Liberals will win handily.
25/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
These recent Tory predictions miss the point. The determining factor for this riding will not be same-sex marriage, or which candidate has sent out the nastiest campaign literature. The determining factor will be the presence of Ted McMeekin's name on the ballot. He was a *very* popular mayor before moving to provincial politics, and his stand on amalgamation (against the position of his own party, btw) just consolidated his hold over the area. Even if Ancaster goes Tory, McMeekin should win just about everywhere else.
24/09/03 AL
This race has gotten pretty tight...looking around here I see many PC signs and Liberal signs, and overall the Liberals are looking weak for the amalgamation issue! MArk Mullins has a very financed machine and McMeekin is a low profile MPP... makes for a tight race, but I say PC by 500!
24/09/03 JS
McMeekin must be running scared. How else do you explain those tasteless, offensive brochures he sent out, likening a vote for Mullins to sticking a fork in your eye? For as much as the Liberals cried foul about the Tories mud-slinging (forgetting, of course, that Smitherman and Pupatello et. al. were in front of the media daily with attacks on the Tories, all so that Dalton could claim he was "taking the high road"), this kind of campaign literature was a surprise, to say the least. The only explanation is that ADFA residents are finally realizing that the Liberals will say ANYTHING about the issue of deamalgamtion, except that they never say the same thing twice. As such, Mullins must be gaining support, causing the frightened McMeekin to turn to such an appalling and ineffective tactic.
20/09/03 RL
This riding has turned into a horse race. It could be one of those ridings where candidates opinions on gay marriage actually matters. The conservative voters seem willing to come back to the Tory fold because of this and because the Liberals can't guarantee deamalgamation. This one is certainly too close to call.
19/09/03 dot commie
I am very interested by everyone's comments here, and I know that McKeekin's victory was pretty decisive in the by-election. But the riding itself is so naturally conservative--in the federal election the CA took 30% of the vote. There surely will be some tendency of voters to return to their natural homes, and for the PC voters who stayed home the by-election to come out to vote. They surely won't stay angry about amalgamation forever, will they? (I'm not saying that the PC's will win this one. But I think this is a long way from a certainty.)
17/09/03 WDR
Why this riding is still listed as a split confounds me and I would love to see the methodology. Ted is a shoe-in as the issues he ran on in the by-election still stand - Amalgamation and dowmloading/ Education/ Healthcare. According to IPSOS-Reid, the greater Hamilton area may elect a clean slate of Liberals (They are up by 25 points in the latest poll.) Paint ADFA Red.
07/09/03 Simon Banks
The Tories don't stand much chance here. The only way for the Tories to even stand a chance here is for the NDP to pick up support and syphon votes away from the Liberals. Not a chance. They are not organized and their candidate is so shrill she will turn voters off. The Tory candidate is a former Reform Party candidate with extreme views and will scare off the slightly right of center "905" voters to Liberal McMeekin. The Tories have their traditional heavy hitters working the local "war room", but it won't be enough to pull off a win with such a polarizing candidate. Too bad they couldn't get Toni Skarica to run again. In this riding where voters still think everyday about their bitterness about amalgamation with Hamilton, former Flamborough mayor Ted McMeekin, a champion of de-amalgamation, will be the voters choice this October.
All Ted McMeekin has to do is say one word - "Taxes" - and he is in like Flynn. As someone else said, this riding will stay Liberal just to punish the Tories for forced amalgamation.
28/07/03 Backseat Driver
After what the Tories did to the people in this riding with amalgamation, the Tory candidate can't even go knocking on doors because he'd be run off the street by angry voters. So how in the world could the Tories win this riding? McMeekin is one of the safest MPP's in the province in this election and as others have written, this riding should be listed for the Liberals.
15/07/03 Scooby Doo
With the Liberals ahead in the polls and people in this riding getting more angry about amalgamation every day, I really don't see any way in this world that Ted McMeekin loses this seat. Even the Tories don't think they're going to take a run at Ted. They just threw a sacrificial lamb into the race who won't even do as well as they did in the by-election. I think you'd be on very firm ground if you moved this one back to the Liberal column. McMeekin is going to win big.
06/07/03 K-Man
The Tories have nominated some obscure candidate who goes by the name of Mullins. He has already floated the idea of merging parts of Flamborough with neighbouring cities. A classic divide and conquer strategy to split the rural vote in favour of the Tories. There is also a possibility that Dave Braden may run as an independent on a de-amalgamation campaign. This all will bleed votes from McMeekin but the general populace realizes that the Tories have no credibility on the amalgamation issue and that Braden cannot precipitate change sitting as an IND in Queens Park. McMeekin wins by 5000 votes.
06/06/03 Bob's Your Uncle
If the Tories thought they had any chance of beating McMeekin, they'd have dug up a good candidate by now. If Dalton McGuinty self distructs worse than he did last time, Ted McMeekin will still get re-elected. Thanks to the mega city, it will be a long time before the Tories win there again.
30/05/03 MARTO
You can't judge a riding on a bi-election. If the Tories get going here they will win easily. If the tories put together a solid campaign - they will get over 50% of the vote.
23/05/03 Grizz
Megacities cause mega-headaches for the politicians who create them and their party. It was a major thorn in the side of Landry in the recent Quebec election and it will hurt Eves just as well. Liberals will keep this one if only to punish the Torys.
01/05/03 Craig
No change here. The Liberal vote gained in the by-election should remain and even strengthen, even among 'conservative' voters since their have a centre-right platform. The NDP has no chance here and won't be a factor, so the Liberals have a lot of votes to work with. Probable results: LIB 55%, PC 28%, NDP 10%, Green 5%.
01/04/03 Stelco Steve
All Ted McMeekin needs to do is keep yelling about how lousy the mega city is and he'll get re-elected. The mega city is a bad deal for people in Ancaster and Flamborough and they'll support Ted because he says he can change things for the better.
11/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Ted McMeekin to win Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot. Like I said in Stoney Creek, in order to have a horserace, you have to have two horses. The LIBs have Ted and the PCs have nobody willing to get in the starting gate. That means McMeekin wins in a walk.
08/03/03 Ivan
AL...are you serious when you say that more people voted in Ancaster, Dundas and Flamborough than in Hamilton??? I suggest that you look at the results from 2000. A higher percentage MAY have voted in those areas but there were way more voters in Hamilton in 2000. (for your statement to be right, all 100% of the voters voted in Ancaster, Dundas and Flamborough as opposed to only 28% in Hamilton)....Bob Wade won first in the suburbs and came a close second in Hamilton...that's how HE won. As for ADFA....the Tories squeaked by in Aldershot and that was their strongest area....certainly NOT an area that was affected by the amalgamation issue since it is in Burlington...kinda makes ya wonder doesn't it??? Tory support declining even in areas where there was no amalgamation issue. Flamborough remains a lock for the Liberals...Dundas...as long as the lefties remain with the liberals, will also be a stronghold. The question is whether Ancaster and Aldershot will swing back to the Tories. They had an excellent Tory candidate in the byelection and it does not appear to be one as good this time round....as it stands now....liberal hold
08/03/03 El Predicto
I was surprised to see this riding moved back to the too close column. Here's a big reason why it should go back to the Liberals. When the towns of Dundas, Flamborough and so on were forced into the Hamilton mega-city, they were promised their property taxes would drop. Last week the people of Flamborough were hit with another double digit property tax increase for the third year in a row. Angry voters in this riding still blame the Tories for amalgamation and will remember their tax bills on election day. Maybe this is why the Tories can't find anyone to run against the popular McMeekin. This riding should be moved back into the Liberal column.
05/03/03 J.S.
Too close to call? Are you kidding me? Not only did the Liberals win in the by-eletion, they turned around a 10,00 vote loss. That's a turnover of over 20,00 votes. And McMeekin is still wildly popular in the areas that traditionally vote PC - mostly Flamborough. The Burlington part of the riding even went Liberal in the by-election and it's doubtful that with Cam Jackson's recent record that those people will switch back to a conservative vote. Not a chance that this riding is going Tory. Not a chance at all. Even if the Liberals can't address the amalgamation mess, voters in ADFA will never forget that the Tories were the once that forced amalgamation in the first place.
02/03/03 AL
Andrew I thank you for your prediction but I still argue that the Tories will win here. You mentioned wit an 11000 vote cushion Ted would be safe, consider that in the General Election before his By-election victory the Tories won the seat with an over 12000 vote cushion. This is a riding of very well-off intelligent people and if you look carefully this area has a much higher voting percentage then most regions of Ontario (Votes from Ancaster, Dundas and Flamborough were enough to beat all the votes from the entire city of Hamilton in the Mayoral Election of former Ancaster mayor Bob Wade). There are alot of farmers and Business owners here, people who have strong tory roots. McMeekin has also kept a low profile, and not done much for this riding. The By-election was just a protest vote over the Amalgmation Issue. (Look at the combined Alliance Tory vote in the Federal Election of 2000). ADFA Will be a Tory gain come spring! Also, Hamilton votes Liberal all the time, but this can't help in ADFA as there is alot of anamosity between the City of Hamilton and the wealthier Suburbs. Colour this one Blue
24/02/03 Panther
This riding has traditionally been a conservative riding. The election of McMeekin during the by-election was simply a protest vote over the amalgamation. McMeekin has failed miserably during his term here and has impressed very few people. The voters of this riding will once again go back to electing a Tory.
22/01/03 Ivan
AL...you wanted Andrew Cox to predict your riding (see Willowdale posting). Well here's my two cents:
AFDA will remain Liberal. The strongest Tory part of the riding in the byelection was Aldershot. Then came Ancaster. In both, the Liberals still pulled ahead. The Liberals swept Flamborough and Dundas. Look for McMeeking too build on his lead.
AL...you said that you come from "Ancaster, a small town near Hamilton". The fact that Ancaster no longer officially exists and it is the Tories that made sure of that angers a lot of people in the area.
Citing Pupatello's silliness on one thing is not the type of stuff that sways a lot of votes. Look at the Tory record...they have mispent A LOT more than anyone else in Queen's Park: look at the Auditor's Report...that continued misuse is a lot more dangerous than a one time thing that was repaid and apologised for.
McMeekin is strong...the Liberals are still popular. While the PC's MAY pick up a bit in the riding, this will not be enough to push them through.
21/01/03 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold. Reasons: 1) The 2000 by-election was a substantial victory for the Grits. They turned an 11,000 vote loss into a 10,000 vote win. The reasons for that win feed into the prediction, so here's the coles notes. Before the 1999 election, Harris pledged no amalgamation without local support. Skarica rode that pledge back to Queen's Park. After the election, Harris broke his promise and amalgamated Hamilton with its suburban and rural neighbours. Property taxes were projected to spike. Voters felt betrayed and lied to. Skarica resigned in January, calling Harris a liar in the process. The Grits chose the champion of the anti-amalgamation forces - Ted McMeekin - as their standard bearer. The Tories wait and wait and wait to call the election, watching their poll numbers tumble in the meantime. Walkerton hits in May, further damaging Harris' reputation. The Tories nominated Priscilla De Villiers, founder of CAVEAT, a victims rights group. They play the crime and economy cards hard, but the broken promise haunts their campaign. An attack in the local newspapers on McMeekin backfires badly, costing the PC communications director his job. All-candidates meetings have the mood of a lynching. By E-day, its a Liberal landslide. 2) Between 1999 and 2000, 10,000 votes shifted to the Grits, pushed by amalgamation and a broken trust. You don't move 10,000 votes back to the Tories without a similarly huge move. To put that margin into perspective, York West - widely perceived as the safest Liberal seat in the country - was won by 11,500. Short of tearing open the Hamilton amalgamation, which would throw every amalgamation from Toronto to Kawartha back into play, the Tories can't fix this mess right now. 3) The riding is basically made up of four blocks: semi-urban clusters in Dundas and Ancaster; suburbs outside those two communities and in Waterdown and Carlysle and here and there around the riding; Farms in Flamborough; wealthy homes ! in Burlington. The Liberal and NDP vote is deepest in Dundas and Ancaster. The Tories can expect to win back Burlington. McMeekin just needs to twist the knife the Tories planted in the back of the people of the suburbs and farm country to keep them in his column. Over time, this seat will become harder and harder to hold for the Liberals, if the current conditions of electoral alignment stay true. But the next election will still feature amalgamation as the main issue. 4) The Tories will have a devil of a time recruiting someone credible, after the drubbing De Villiers took. Even if they do get someone high-profile, local candidates matter much less in the general, compared to by-elections. That person will have a real time trying to swing vote based on their personality. 5) The Family Coalition Party would be crazy not to run a candidate here. This is probably the riding they would do best in. Lots of right-wing voters who don't like the Liberals and don't want to vote Tor! y. They could grab 5% or more just by putting a name on the ballot. 6) That said, the PC Private School Tax Credit will have its supporters here. Amalgamation anger won't be as hot. A lot of Tories just sat on their hands last time, who will probably vote this time. The Tory candidate could be a Toni Skarica-style "run against my own party" type. The central Liberal campaign could skunk. 5) But all those things together don't get me over that 10,000 vote hump. I don't doubt it will be closer, perhaps in the 3500 to 5000 range. But not enough has changed since 2000 to convince me 10,000 voters have switched off McMeekin.
15/01/03 Craig
This is a weird seat indeed. McMeekin steamrolled in the byelection, partly because of the amalgamation issue and partly because he was facing a one-issue candidate who was in seriously over her head (DeVilliers). The 60/30 Liberal split was a mirror image of the election just a year before, but Tony Skarica had been very popular and I can't see anyone with his profile coming forward this time.
All this makes for a tight race. This was a race where the Alliance expected to win in the last federal election, but again they couldn't come up with a persuasive candidate and Bryden stomped Ray Pennings by over 4000 votes, as would-be Alliance voters defected to the PCs and split the right vote.
This riding is a natural for the Blues, as a coalition of suburban business owners and old-fashioned rural Tories can provide a powerful mix. They need to find a candidate that people can relate to, but they should be able to pull through. I'd call 49-41 Tories, in what might just be the only Tory gain in the election. The Greens, on the back of a strong Dundas vote, might beat the NDP into fourth!
The only reason the Tories lost this by-election was because the typical by-election-turn-against-the-government argument. But this is safe Tory territory for the general election.
16/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
This is a puzzling one to judge. Ted McMeekin swept in decisively on the coattails of anti-amalgamation protest; but if it weren't for McMeekin, this would be almost as super-safe a Tory seat as its Halton neighbours. And McMeekin isn't a Liberal frontline-hogger like his fellow 905 Grit byelection winner Greg Sorbara. In other words, he's a fluke. But a fortuitous fluke, if the broad electoral wave goes Gritward...
26/10/02 AL
Ive decided to change this prediction! This my home riding. Ive been talking to friends and Co Workers in the Ancaster area and I have gotten the influence that the Liberals arent too well liked. Ancaster will decide the winner of this race as Flambrough will be painted red and Dundas Blue. It will come to who can get enough votes from Ancaster to grab this seat. This is the richest riding in the Hamilton area by far, and one of the wealthiest in the Province. Lots of business owners and lawyers live here and to them the Tories are whats needed to get things done. Therefore I conclude that the Tories should retake this seat and the Liberals will be close on their heels! This will be oneof the Closest seats in the Province!!!
23/10/02 AL
The almagion issue killed the tories here in the byelection, but if the tories can get a credible member it WILL be close but until then this is a pretty sure Liberal bet!

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