Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:26 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:41 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Kuldip Kular
Progressive Conservative:
Raminder Gill
New Democratic Party:
Cesar Martello
Green Party:
Ernest Braendli

Raminder Gill

Federal MP:
Gurbax Malhi

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

18442 49.38%

14492 38.81%

2206 5.91%

2204 5.9%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality14 703
Gurbax S. Malhi
21 917 57.1%
Gurdish Mangat
7 214 18.8%
Danny Varaich
6 019 15.7%
Vishnu Roche
1 864 4.9%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation72.70%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born55.80%
Ontario Born47.80%
Visible Minority41.06%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$175729

College/Trade School27155

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01/10/03 K.A.
Gill will be re-elected. He is a great MPP for this riding and has done a lot for the community. Considering Kular has been reprimanded by the Ontario College of Physicians and Surgeons (on their website) he has a lot of nerve even running in this election. The Liberals should do background checks on their candidates before they allow them to run. Either way, Gill's support is strong, with the anglo community AND the ethnic community.
01/10/03 eye
Email: no
I bet Gill loosing this riding between 6000-8000 margin. I think election prediction took so long to declare this liberal may be because they did not know how ehnic/indian community gona vote. I tell you thay not voting for Kullar thay are vosting against Gill.
29/09/03 viz kid
This riding has always gone with swing. Who ever forms government this riding goes with that party. This time it does not look like liberal wave its liberal huricane. Gill's roots are not deep enough. Definitely Kullar.
29/09/03 observer
Email: no
I bet this riding this time liberal as tories are winning only one seat in Toronto. Both Kullar and Gill are from sikh community. I heard voter in bramelea are upset on PC as well on liberal. may end up voting to NDP. As a ethnic denial of power to ethnic community. I this could be a considerable loss to Gill. As Bramalea is PC vote rich. If Gill lost that , no way he can survice. I heard most anglo voter are thinking of voting Martelo. Not enough for NDP to win. In this riding Liberal will win 75% of the ethnic vote. and liberal are even winning in mainstream vote. I agree this is the riding tories will loose first in peel region.
29/09/03 eye
Email: no
I can not understand why this riding is listed still undecided when driving round in the riding one can clearly understand that this riding will be the first one in Brampton that liberals will pick. Driving on the street you can see 75% kullar sign. Gill's sign are barely visible. Also liberal being so high in polls in 905 Gill do not have enough deep roots that he can survive. Last election was very close. Not this time. I think his campaign tried to dig some dert which is backfiring him. his supporter is leaving him as know that he is loosing. Plus he did very poor job in 4and half years at queens park. He failed to accomplish anything for the community. He is saying that p3 hospital is his accomplishment, I would discredit him on that because the fact being the new hospital in brampton is because of Hon. Tony Clement. As well the government has planned to open this hospital in last 7 year. Gill was only MPP for one term. As well in 1993 he lost liberal nomination to Gurbax Malhi. In PC party, in order to get some kind of cabinet post you have to born Conservative. I think in this liberal wave only conservatives will servive who had always cared about community like Tony Clement. Tony always worked very hard and always end up getting the job done. Match is al set for Kullar.
28/09/03 Jim Rock
Gill has shown himself to be a steady and sure local member since 1999. Kular's prescription mess will probably hurt more than some think. Not only was he censured by the College of Physicians and Surgeons, but he admitted he got the woman concerned addicted to codeine. If he does not even understand such a common drug, its a wonder he still gets to be a doctor! Dr. Kular's troubles should be enough to give it to Gill.
27/09/03 905er
The Liberals will likely get 70 seats in this election and yet this site still only has 35 marked Red. There are some close races out there but this isn't one of them. It was close last time but will go clearly red on this occation. Kular's campaign is well organized and Gills big bomb on Kular blew up in his face at the debate when the NDP candidate scolded the Tories for using the politics of personal attacks. Time to make predictions and this one should be Liberal.
27/09/03 visitir
Email: no
Gill brought Canadian Allaiance leader into already troubled campaign. This factor is annoying federal tories. Definitely will hurt him.in the past immigrant community always voted for liberals even when knowing that liberal will not win. Why they will vote for PC when thay know that liberal going toward formaing a government. Constituents always prefer to get government member elected than for opposition.
23/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Liberals have got to win this one. A) Polls are indicating they are ahead in 905. Those gains have got to come somewhere and this is, after Thornhill, their most vulnerable seat. B) Gill has done a satisfactory but by no means exemplary job. C) The high South-East Asian population is probably more likely to vote Liberals as Gill's absence in cabinet must be considered a disappointment as the Tories only have two minority MPPs. D) I see a tide shifting in Brampton. That may not be enough to knock off Spina and Clement but it should definately knock off Gill.
20/09/03 Brain Freeze
As someone actually aware of the facts in this matter here it is; ‘The skeleton in the closet’ is the fact that Dr. Kular prescribed Tylenol 3 to a patient 10 years ago who requested it. The College of Physicians and Surgeon had a complaint later that she really didn’t need it and he had to take a couple of courses. He didn’t miss one day of practice and was not fined a dime. Gill is on the phone to anyone who will listen begging them to run this story. The Punjabi press just ran an article scolding him for trying to push the story in desperation. The were successful in getting a four sentence mention in the National Post a couple of days ago on the issue but other than that their big ace is nothing but a big dud. There is a backlash in the Punjabi community with the radio and papers all criticizing Gill for trying to play up such a non-issue. Meanwhile no one else has even heard of it. So there you go Frozen Toast – by your definition they are running scared. Game - set match to Kular.
19/09/03 Spice Girl
I've heard about the little problem that Kular has in his past but I don't think the voters will ever know because the Tories won't need to use it to win. Gill is the candidate who's expanded his base in the riding and being the incumbant gives him another large advantage over Kular. The Liberals are not going to find a breakthrough in this region. Gill will keep this riding.
17/09/03 Frozen Toast
We'll know if Gill and the Tories think they're in trouble in this riding. Kular has a big skeleton in his closet. If the Tories don't bring it up, then they know they're ahead and don't want to rock the boat. If the Tories start talking about this issue, then we'll know they're worried about losing. So far Gill and his team haven't been throwing any mud. They're ahead and know he'll hang on.
13/09/03 Strike
Gill has to be worried about the ethnic vote coalescing behind Kular. A quick look at the streets shows they have left Gill and gone Liberal. As for 70% of the riding being European... even the '96 census showed this riding with 41% of the population being visible minorities. With the growth in Springdale and Castlemore that is now over 50%. The idea that the Anglo-Saxon vote will go NDP because of an aversion to ethnic candidates is without basis anyway. The last election they got 5% and there aren't that many racist voters to cause a huge leap in that number (besides, since when is Italian not a visible minority)
It seems as if people don't research the canidates before talking about them. Cesar Martello is not only an immigrant, but is ethnic, last time I checked latino was an ethnic group. It may not be the main group in this riding, but it is still one.
I have not seen a single Martello (NDP) sign yet. In my street there are 2 Kular signs and that's it. In fact driving around I see just a few Kular signs and virtually no Gill signs. If Martello is to steal some of the non-ethnic vote he will more likely take it from Gill. I still hope Gill will win but honestly it looks like it will be Kular.
08/09/03 Arty
BMGS is dangerously heading towards racial division. Both the Tory & Liberal candidates are either Punjabi & Hindi. In many neighbourhoods, you can already see Liberal signs up supporting Kular. No so strange is the fact nearly all of these are Punjabi & Hindi immigrant families. Already Ernie Eves (Tory) has announced a "made in Ontario" immigration policy geared towards securing more money on a per-capita basis for each immigrant as well as determining who can settle in Ontario --- this has likely worried many immigrant families. This policy can only benefit Liberals. What I am beginning to hear though, is that the 70% of Brampton that is of European decent is looking at voting for the NDP candidate (Cesar Martello) since he is not ethnic. By voting NDP, a clear denial of power would be delivered to the Ethnic population in BMGS.
07/09/03 905er
How many times have the Tories announced the extention of the 410 - people are getting sick of waiting for it to happen. The GO station improvements are just announcements as well - after waiting for 8 years a last second promise isn't going to cut it. Kular is showing strong organization in the field with Gill having nothing but illegal signs. This was close last time but will be a solid pickup for the Liberal this time. There has been a lot of growth in the riding and, coupled with Kular's organization and name in the ethnic community this one of a minimum of 2 that go Liberal in Peel.
05/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
I am going to say Tory, for several reasons. One, there is no substantial NDP vote to collapse, benefiting the Liberals. Two, polls consistently place the Tories strongest in the 905 belt. Third, with attention given to the Go Trains and widening the 410, this does not hurt the Tories. Let me also add the caveat, though, that this is pretty much a must win riding for the Tories if they keep a majority. On a broader province trend, people are going to look hard at the Liberal alternative, and this will be no 1987 - Eves will make gains in the polls, and no where more so than in ridings such as BGMS, where people are concerned about taxes and transportation, two Tory butter and bread issues.
29/08/03 Brain Freeze
Email: scratchdutch@hotmail.com
Better connections into the 40 anglo-saxen men that make up the Chamber of Commerce will do nothing here. At the best of times, a Chamber of Commerce can give a minor lift to a rural candidate in the middle of no where. This is a heavily ethnic riding and the thousands of patience Dr. Kular has strong relationships with will make a huge difference. Last time, Gill got a lot of votes because Liberals left with him when he flipped from being a Grit to a Tory. They were angry with the nomination process and left Toor to loose. This time, with Gill barely seen in the riding - they are coming home and going red. 40 votes from the Chamber of Commerce (that Gill got last time anyway) aren't going to matter any more that a piece of toast ;-)
26/08/03 Frozen Toast
The Liberals put what I thought was a very fine candidate in 1999. David Toor was well known in the business community and that's the type of candidate you need to take on the Tories in this part of the province. Toor ran a well developed campaign but still lost by 4000 votes. This time the Liberals don't have as good a candidate as Toor. Dr Kular does not have the Chamber of Commerce connections that Toor did and has not made the same inroads into the business community because he doesn't know them. Raminder Gill has not been a star at Queen's Park by any means, but Gill will be able to keep that 4000 vote spread and get a second term. It might have been different of the Liberals had nominated a more business type candidate.
11/08/03 Reality Check
There's my old friend Craig, still in serious need of a reality check. I don't know where Craig lives but it can't be anywhere near this riding. BGMS is not more "urban" than the other ridings in the Mississauga and Brampton area. So I don't know how the Liberal platform plays any better here than the surrounding ridings. As others have said, the Liberal platform is targetted at seats in Toronto rather than the GTA. When it comes to Craig's prediction that Kular will get 48 per cent of the vote, that makes no sense either. Even the most optimistic Liberal will tell you they would be very happy to get 45 per cent of the vote this fall. That would mean for Kular to get 48 per cent, he'd be running 3 points ahead of the most optimistic Liberal forecast. Now if Kular were some kind of star candidate, I might be willing to entertain this wishful thinking, but he's not. What will happen in BGMS is that it will, like it's neighboring ridings elect Tories, while the Liberal pick up seats in Toronto and other urban centres. That means one thing. A minority government this fall.
07/08/03 Craig
This is the most 'urban' of all 905 area ridings, except for Oshawa (which is a special case because of the union presence). The Liberal platform should be well recieved here, and the PC platform results should be mixed, simply because of the high ethnic population. Simply pouring money into pre-election goodies will likely not help, it seems like Raminder Gill is getting desperate. While the majority of 905 area ridings should stay PC, this is the most marginal riding in Peel Region and should swing Liberal. The margin was not that large either in 1999. Current prediction: Kular 48%, Gill 43%, Martello 6%, others 3%.
01/08/03 Road Rage
As a commuter, I can tell you that the Tories bought a lot of votes this spring when they announced expanding of the 410 highway. Most people have no idea who the the local MPP is. They'll just vote Tory because they're getting what they want from the government. More roads.
24/07/03 Call Me Shades
McGuinty and the Liberals have come up with a platform that is targetted at winning seats in Toronto. This strategy will pay off in the big city as the Liberals will take some seats from the Tories like Scarborough Centre and Etobicoke Centre. McGuinty will pay a cost for his focus on Toronto as he won't be gaining any seats in the so called 905 belt around Toronto. Voters in a riding like this have gotten used to a government that puts them first and they won't be willing to switch to the Liberals who will lean towards the hated Toronto. This is all that Gill will need to make sure he gets another term in office. Listen to me. The 905 will stay with the Tories.
16/07/03 Happy Camper
All I see in this part of the province is the Tories pouring money into more GO Trains, and highways. I don't see anything in the way of goodies that the Liberals are promising to give this riding. I also think Gill has done enough to get his name out there in the last four years and this will help him overcome Kular who is not known.
12/07/03 Tre Cool
Voters in this riding don't know Gill and they don't know Kular. This riding will be decided on party lines not who the local candidate is. If you look at what polls say are the top issues, this riding is doing well. They do not have old and crumbling schools like other parts of they province. There have not been any hospital closings like in other parts of the province. Life in this riding has been pretty good in the last 8 years and Gill will be able to beat Kular as he reminds voters of the Tory record of taking good care of this part of the province.
12/07/03 Derek L.
This is a no brainer. It went Tory by a 9-point margin in 1999 when the Tories beat the Liberals by 5 points province-wide. It seems clear that the Tory vote across Ontario is in a free fall and suburban ridings like this are particularly sensitive to the province-wide swing. If the Liberals win the election (which I am now 99.9999999999% sure they will), this seat will be one of the first to fall to them.
08/07/03 Speak Easy
The B Man can't seem to make up his mind on who's going to win this riding. He was right with his first instinct that Kular has one too many skeletons in his closet and Gill is going to be re-elected. This just isn't a provincial Liberal type of riding. Despite all their screw ups, the Tories still make sense to a large number of voters in the 905. Kular was never the right candidate for the Liberals anyway.
04/07/03 The B Man
This is going to be a close one. Forget about Raminder Gill cashing in on the recent Tory election handouts (GO train service enhancements, the extension of Hwy 410) and being part of the Ernie Eves 'team.' Mike Harris is the guy who got Gill elected, not Eves, and Oilcan Ernie is no Mike Harris. Furthermore, Gill's claim to setting a record for knocking on doors in the riding (eclipsing who? The Jehovah's Witnesses?)is pretty lame when you consider he has been barely visible and absolutely silent since he was elected. As a result, Gill has neither a public profile nor a powerful leader to count on for future employment. As long as Dalton McGuinty doesn't self-destruct and the Liberal candidate, Kuldip Kular, keeps papering the riding with his Ontario Liberal Party-boilerplate circulars hammering the Tory record on health care, education and the environment, Mr. Gill is in serious trouble.
04/07/03 The B Man
Let me put the reins on my earlier prediction that the race in this riding was going to be a close one. If (when?) Raminder Gill pulls this little skeleton out of the closet of the Liberal candidate, Kuldip Kular, it's game-set-match to Gill. I'll be very interested to see how Kular answers to this: http://www.cpso.on.ca/Publications/Disc.sum/1993/disc93.11.htm
28/06/03 Bender
This week the government announced millions of dollars to extend the 410 highway further north. This is going to win back a lot of votes in the region and gives Gill one more weapon to use against the Liberals. Kular is not a bad guy, but this is still a Conservative riding.
21/06/03 Slim Shady
This riding is right in the middle of the 905 belt that's supported the Tories so well in the last two elections. I don't see anything changing in the 905 because the Liberals don't have a single major platform policy that will attract votes in this region. For that reason, Gill will be re-elected on the party ticket with Kular a distant second.
07/06/03 Grandpa
Ernie Eves was very busy this week announcing millions of dollars to expand GO Train services in the GTA. This money will buy a lot of votes in ridings like this where the GO Train is the way of life for many voters. Look for Gill to run his campaign on how the Tories have put all this money into GO. Nobody knows where Kular and the Liberals stand on the GO and it won't matter much because this seat will be won again by Gill.
16/05/03 Craig
This riding is the most likely riding in Peel Region to swing to the Liberals, and that is what will happen, with the high minority population and the smallest Tory plurality in the western 905 (Halton and Peel) in 1999, this is the best chance for a Liberal pickup in that region, and it will happen. Kular's base is very strong and should take this riding. Predicted results: LIB 47%, PC 40%, NDP 6%, Green 6%.
21/04/03 Strike
The Tory position on the war in Iraq plays very poorly with the ethnic community in BGMS. Combined with a provincial climate that is very unfriendly to the Tories (budget fall out, SARS fallout, double cohort, pending teacher strikes, etc) BGMS will be painted red.
05/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Raminder Gill to win Bramalea-Gore-Malton-Springdale. Gill will win this match because he's wearing the blue PC uniform that's still very popular in this part of the province. Voters in this riding still don't trust the team in the red uniforms and that will mean, game, set and match to Gill.
28/02/03 El Predicdo Wrongo
This is hardly a 'Tory' stronghold.
a. 41% of the riding are visible minorities.
b. It has the Liberal stronghold of Malton within it
c. The sihk community is almost 20,000 strong here and well organized behind Kular.
d. Less than 4,000 votes separated the Lib and Tory candidates in the last round.
This will be a close race if the Tory's take the province - it the province goes Liberal it is a clear win.
21/02/03 El Predicto
I can't believe this one is still considered too close to call. This riding is the same as all the other Tory strongholds in the Peel Region that have already been called for the Tories. Tory, Gill is now the incumbent and has spent the last four years building his support base in the riding. Many Liberals in the riding felt they had a stronger candidate in 1999 with David Toor. This time the Liberals are going with Dr. Kular who has not shown that he can put together the same type of campaign that Toor did in 1999. This riding is the Tory heartland no doubt about it and should be marked down for the Tories now.
18/02/03 905er
This will be a very interesting seat. The new areas in Springdale are very ethnic and mixed with Malton and a Liberal candidate who is a popular local doctor in the Bramalea area - I see it going red. The ethnic communities will be coming back home after Gill did not deliver for them.
31/12/02 Alex
PC party will win this riding. The candiadate that liberal party has nominated could be strong but there will be controversy surrounding ethical issues all the way to the polls. It will be a dog fight but PC's may win because of the controversy surroundding the liberal candidate. This riding may go liberal if Grits have a big wave in their favour otherwise PC's will take it.
21/12/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If we were to magically replay the political climate up to 1990, I wouldn't say there is "no NDP vote here"; traditionally, thanks to all the Airport-area industry, Bramalea and Malton had Peel's strongest blue-collar base, and under the right climate and circumstances it could have worked electorally like a W/NW extension of Ed Philip's Etobicoke North. (Notionally, had the seat existed in 1990, it *would* have gone with the NDP tide--and federally, the Broadbent forces gave a serious run for it in '88.) Things are different today, of course--thanks to a Malton-based independent, NDP was driven by a 2-vote margin into *fourth* place in 1999. And incumbency's levelling of the playing field may help Gill in Malton the way Dave Tsubouchi was helped in Milliken Mills in '99. That is, if it's third time landslide lucky for 905 Tories...
02/12/02 L.C.
First, Raminder Gill was nominated unopposed to run for the Tories in July of this year (2002). Second, Gill spent the majority of his summer criss-crossing the riding knocking on doors; in fact, he knocked on over 8,000 in the months of July and August -more than any other Tory M.P.P. Malton never votes Tory so it will be upon Gill to consolidate his 99 showing in the Bramalea and burgeoning suburbia of Springdale. To the previous submission, Gill was the author of the South Asian Heritage bill passed by the legislature last year and his links within the South Asian and non-South Asian community have been maintained. If Gill runs locally with getting more services (GO Service, 410 expansion) than he can improve his percent numbers above the province-wide Tory total. Can't predict margin, but Gill certainly has the lead; especially with the incumbant status he didn't have three years ago.
08/11/02 Andrew Cox
My gut says this one will be exciting. Reasons. 1) This was the second closest 905 race, after the Thornhill nail biter. Resources on both sides will be marshalled here. 2) Raminder Gill isn't in cabinet, although he is one of only two minority members of the PC caucus. For South Asians who are hoping for a voice in government, Gill isn't coming through. 3) Neighbouring Vaughn-King-Aurora swung dramatically away from the PCs in 2001. The PC vote collapsed in polls bordering the riding. 4) Its rumoured Gill will be pushed aside for former Tory Minister David Johnson to make a return to the Eves team here. That kind of a clumsy move could set the South Asian community against the PCs. 5) There is no NDP vote here, leaving all anti-government anger flowing through the Grits come election day.

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