Brampton Centre

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Brampton Centre

Last Update:
9:47 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
3:17 PM 28/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Linda Jeffrey

Progressive Conservative:
Joe Spina

New Democratic Party:
Kathy Pounder

Green Party:
Sanjeev Goel

Incumbent:

Joe Spina

Federal MP:

Sarkis Assadourian

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 10629

*JOE SPINA

20623 57.77%

GURJIT S. GREWAL

9994 28%

PAUL SCHMIDT

5080 14.23%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 9 136

Sarkis Assadourian

18 365 50.6%

Beryl Ford

9 229 25.4%

Prabhat Kapur

6 247 17.2%

Sue Slean

1 795 4.9%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 119971

1996 106393

1991 100431

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 33335

20-39 36365

40-59 27310

60+ 9390

Avg Household Income
$63916

Labour Participation 74.90%

Unemployment 7.30%

Canadian Citizen
89.27%

Canadian Born 66.26%

Ontario Born 56.34%

Immigrant 33.13%

Visible Minority 25.62%

Aboriginal 0.35%

First Language

English 77600

French 1590

Portuguese 4945

Punjabi 4785

Italian 2775

Residence

House 75.71%

Apartment 24.23%

Owned 71.36%

Rented 28.64%

Avg Dwelling Value $191716

Education

University 16560

College/Trade School 23680

Secondary 33920

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	29/09/03	Email:
This is a really tough one to call. Pounder is easily the best candidate of the bunch, but I am not sure she has enough strength in this riding to pull off a win. However, she might have enough to drain considerable votes from Jeffrey - who isn't much of a liberal to begin with. With the possibility of disenchanted grassroots Liberals who were bypassed by the party when it opted to appoint (rather than elect) Jeffrey, Spina might just hold on to this seat - despite not being a real high profile (or particularly strong) candidate.
	29/09/03	G. Cristiano Email:
While the Tories are trailing the Liberals in the overall provincial results, The Tories are a lot closer to the Liberals in the 905. I expect the results in Brampton Centre to be tight, with Joe Spina winning the riding. The issue that will do it for Spina is the private-public partnership to build a new hospital in Brampton. Spina has been strongly campaigning in favour of the P3 (recently distributed a flyer discounting the Liberal and NDP myths on P3), while both Linda Jeffrey of the Liberals and Kathy Pounder of the NDP are against it. Polling on the P3 issue in Brampton shows that 60% favour the P3 because Bramptonian want a new hospital built in shorter and 40% are against. Pounder is running a good campaign and her work with the Brampton Health Coalition could result in the anti P3 vote being split. This is the perfect local wedge issue that could give Spina a victory.
	28/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
This is going to be a tough fight, but we are looking at Liberal support which has peaked. In the last week this will tighten up, and any NDP gains keeps this seat Tory. Brampton Bill couldn't be more pleased!
	28/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
Let's think about this here. There is a shift of over 30% happening in 905. Spina has been invisible and when he has been there has been despicable. The Brampton Guardian did not endorse him. He will be on the "greater loser than average" in 905, blowing a 30% point lead into a loss of about 10%. (As for the naive person predicting an NDP victory: It is postings like this that undermine the credibility of this website).
	28/09/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Liberal gain. Reasons. 1) I want to bring to everyone's attention the facts of life. The myth of a PC lock on the 905 is about to slip away like Isabel's hands through Ernie's hair. The latest Ipsos-Reid (post debate) shows the Liberals ahead in the 905 belt by 11%. Let that sink in for a second.......... 11%. With a handful of days to go. (Lib 49%, PC 38%, NDP 10%.) This seat is up for grabs. 2) Joe Spina is a disagreable little monster and anyone who meets him will notice this pretty quickly. Let's all remember that he is the one who said SARS was the fault of the "wrong kind" of immigrants. Nice guy. 3) Jefferey is a decent candidate with some name recognition that will make checking the Liberal box go down smooth. 4) 11%. 11%. 11%. 11%. Let's face it, the Liberals are going to win 75 seats and this is one of them. ****A note to the webmaster*** Unless you want to look silly come election day, its time to put just about every PC seat in the province into play. Those "safe" PC seats are all in jeopardy.
	26/09/03	Over60 Email:
Today's Brampton Guardian should give Spina cause to reflect. The Guardian is a very pro-right wing weekly and its editor (Lorne Drury) is a shameless Tory/Reform?Alliance backer. He begged teh voters to vote against the tide for GIll and Clement but did not back Spina. Then there is Linda Jeffery - a long time Tory who somehow got the Liberal nomination. As very long time Grits, we will pick the NDP candidate here for our support. Pounder's position on P3 hospitals is clear. The only thing we can not understand in Brampton is why Clement did not situate the new P3 hospital on the 407 (toll road) that way his budies could get sick people coming and going. I agree that there will be sweeping change in Ontario. To deny it is foolish and uninformed. Spina is an easy task. He has won with tide votes and is likely to go down with tide votes.
	26/09/03	J.S. Email:
The Brampton Guardian in it's Weekend Edition which hit the streets on Sept 26 calls for the election of Linda Jeffrey in Brampton Centre in its editorial. The same editorial which calls for the re-election of the Tory incumbents in Bramalea-Gore-Malton-Springdale and Brampton-West-Mississauga. At the all-candidates debate sponsored by the Brampton Board of Trade which occurred on Sept 25, Tory incumbent Joe Spina had the coldest reception and took the most flak from the public in attendance.
	25/09/03	Paul F. Email:
Not sure what planet the previous submitters are from but for those of US who LIVE in Brampton know the P3 hospital is a winning issue for the Tories especially Spina and Clement. With two opposition candidates promising to cancel the hospital deal (just like the old CHretien Pearson deal which cost taxpayers millions)- same thing would happen here. I can only see someone like McGuinty saying to the owner of the consortium "Please let me buy this hospital building, please?" Only to be given the boot on his backside. The Libs are too comical on this one. Re Jeffrey and her stong campaign. From what I'm told, she has no money, no volunteers (her campaign managers all gripe about one another in the office) and she's sending negative junk in the mail as directed by Lib President Greg Sorbara. Even without Eves, Spina will pull through albeit close.
	24/09/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I agree that the "appointed" or "parachute" candidate argument is a no-go when faced with a potential 905-zone electoral wave; besides, Joe Spina was arguably an even bigger "turkey" in 1995 or even 1999 than Linda Jeffrey is in 2003. Under these circumstances, I'll have to withdraw my earlier Tory prediction...
	24/09/03	S Marshall Email:
Jeffrey seems to be winning the sign war against Spina, and those anti P3 Hospital signs outnumber Spina signs in many parts of this riding, especially the areas closer to Downtown Brampton. Joe Spina is probably the weakest Tory candidate in Brampton. Another of Spina's embarrassing comments was when he yelled "Speak English" as NDP MPP Gilles Bisson spoke in French to the legislature, recognizing the 10th anniversary of the Ontario French Services act.
	24/09/03	James Bow Email:
Too close to call. My contacts within this riding tell me that Spina will rise or fall depending on how the Eves government fares. His personal following is limited and the Liberals are campaigning well. This is one of the 905 ridings that will decide who eventually takes power at Queen's Park.
	20/09/03	905er Email:
Too close to call - leaning Liberal. The P3 hospital issue is huge, Spina is nowhere to be seen, the local Liberal candidate is strong and the Liberals are at 50% in the polls. I would not have thought this one would be in play but if the Liberal take more than 55 seats it falls. The way things are going - that is a very real possibility.
	09/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
The strong show for the Tories, consistently, poll after poll after poll, in the 905 belt, shows that the old riding of Bill Davis should remain true blue. I am not predicting a Liberal landslide, and that is pretty well the only way that I believe that this riding would be competitive.
	09/07/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Sarkis Assadourian - that's the federal MP, look to your left - was appointed by Chretien as the Liberal candidate in Brampton Centre in 1997. He went on to win the seat quite handily. To argue that the appointment of Linda Jefferey will cost her the seat is absurd. I agree with Craig that the Liberals will make major gains in this seat, since the appointment issue is obviously moot. Jefferey is a quality candidate as the Brampton budget chief. Spina is - quite frankly - the most loathsome member of the Ontario Legislature. This is the guy who told Marilyn Churley to stay home and take care of her kids, and Rosario Marchese to "speak white." But I think most swing voters here choose on leader and party message. If Ernie Eves stays mired in a distant second on election day, this will be one of the seats flowing into a Liberal landslide. If the election is close, it will stay blue.
	15/05/03	Craig Email:
Dalton appointing Linda Jeffrey - that will cost the Liberals the seat. I don't think the people in the riding will want someone undemocratically appointed as their MPP, and that will cost major votes from the Liberals (who would otherwise be looking at huge gains) going to the Tories, and a few to the NDP. As a result, this should be the largest Tory plurality in Ontario. Predcited results: PC 56%, LIB 28%, NDP 10%, Green 5%.
	24/02/03	Don Johnson Email:
Libs appointed female candidate Linda Jeffrey. Although it's an undemocratic move at best, she is a popular councillor from north part of riding. She should give Spina a run for his money so long as Eves doesn't crush McGuinty. She does have a problem with past record property tax hikes on Chair of Brampton Budget Cmte. Don't think voters know or care at the moment about this.
	09/11/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Despite being a backbencher with a checkered rep, Spina had the best Tory result in Brampton in '99--but that was mainly because the Grit campaign was in disarray and the NDP's Paul Schmidt, of all things, was endorsed as the strategic alternative. Given this bamboozling situation in a seat where no NDPers were elected in 1990, a lot of voters held their noses and voted for the incumbent. (It may be noted that NDP did best relative to the Liberals in the WASPy Tory-friendly domain of old Brampton.) It's all a matter of candidates nominated and which way the 905 wind blows, for now--otherwise, if Clement stays, Spina stays.

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