Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Don Valley West

Last Update:
4:48 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
1:42 PM 29/09/2003

Political Profile:

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Kathleen Wynne
Progressive Conservative:
David Turnbull
New Democratic Party:
Ali Naqvi
Green Party:
Philip Hawkins

David Turnbull

Federal MP:
John Godfrey

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

23177 50.52%

20008 43.62%

2152 4.69%

312 0.68%

224 0.49%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality14 746
John Godfrey
25 329 55.4%
Michael Murton
10 583 23.1%
John Wakelin
7 239 15.8%
Ali Naqvi
2 024 4.4%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation64.80%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born56.67%
Ontario Born47.61%
Visible Minority33.06%

First Language
Tagalog (Pilipino)2460
Persian (Farsi)2345

Avg Dwelling Value$407611

College/Trade School17665

Authorized by the CFO for the Don Valley West Provincial Liberal Association
01/10/03 rich
i guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I live in this riding, and although my last comment was probably a stretch, it is true naqvi is building up SOME support. I say some cause he will only get 6-8% of the vote. besides, Naqivi isnt obviously a main factor that will determine this riding AT ALL. I just wanted to get some writers on this site to think about issues on the side. We'll see! But in my area Turnbull is cleaning up the votes.
01/10/03 Derek
How ridiculous Rich. This is typical Tory-talk, trying to pep up the NDP in hopes of a vote split. NOT THIS TIME. Kathleen Wynne has the momentum, and the Tories are crumbling faster than a game of jenga. Game Over for Turnbull and CO.
30/09/03 Peter
I have to disagree with Rob's assertion that Turnbull "wooed" the crowd at the Thorncliffe all-candidates session - although he at least showed up for this one. Many Turnbull supporters were in the crowd, and lacked the sense to remove their buttons. In any event, there were few people in the room who had not already made up their minds. It did make for good theatre. Wynne has been running a strong, well-organized campaign and has an enormous number of volunteers who will turn out the vote on Thursday. The prediction for this riding is correct.
30/09/03 Rich
I hate to sound like Eves or Hampton but in this riding: 1. There is a Huge Silent PC voice that aren't heard. They are playing very low key and not putting up signs on their lawns but are voting PC none the less. 2. The Liberals peaked to soon! There is a huge backlash now regarding Wynne, many of her signs have been taken down from people's properties. The NDP is building huge momentum in the riding, although on Public Property, the NDP is putting signs all over the riding, especially in the richer areas of town that although is PC, has many Liberal supporters. Bayview and Leslie are filled with orange signs, and Naqvi's name is getting out, especially with the immigrent communities. This should greatly give away alot of Liberal support, especially since NDP's numbers have gone up. If I do my Math, Turnbull won by 7% last time. Due to the poor polls for the Tories, Turnbull's percentage will drop significantly, but with a stronger NDP will Wynne be able to match it? Prediction: PC 44% Lib 43.5% NDP 8.5% OTH 4%
29/09/03 Rose Princess
I live in the north end of the riding (the Silver Hills), and while more than a few of the mansions in my neighbourhood have Turnbill signs in front of them, a surprising amount of mansions also have Wynne signs in front. I think that the fact that Eves has racked up a $5 billion-or-so deficit, along with failing to privatize hydro, has pissed a lot of traditional Tory supporters off. I think many people realize that Eves just can't afford the tax cuts that he's promising. Also, the northern part of the riding is very close to North York General Hospital which was devastated by the second round of SARS. NY General is very near and dear to the hearts of people in my neighbourhood, and I think that the SARS scare has woken up alot of people to the reality of Tory cuts.
28/09/03 Willie
I have been canvassing for the Liberals in this riding since 1993 in a number of swing polls. I am realistic, and have called each election where we have won or lost. While things were a little tough in the first week, the Liberals have the momentum here. This election is unique in that the voters are very polarized between the Tories, those who hate the Tories (who are overwhelmingly Liberal) and those in the middle. However, in the last week, those undecideds and uncommitteds in the middle are breaking to the Liberals by a four to one margin. While the Tories whom I encounter are becoming more outspoken and angry, I am not finding very many new Tories. And the Liberal vote is hardening as people are becoming more comfortable with McGuinty. Turnbull is taking direct aim at Wynne with a cheesy brochure whose slogan is "You can't win with Wynne". This has not been well received. Based on what I am hearing at the doors, this riding will go Wynne.
28/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Liberal without a doubt! The Tories will throw their e-day resources into saving David Young (that might work) and to a lesser extent Steve Gilchrist (but that won't work). A no name ran against Turnbull last time and Turnbull barely won. He has behaved abhorentally in the campaign. Wynne by 15%-at least.
28/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Assuming the Tories still believe they can hold onto *one* Toronto seat, it's logical that they'll put all their efforts into protecting David Young in Willowdale. One way or the other, Turnbull's finished.
28/09/03 Rob
I've been following David around, watching him perform in various local debates. He had a striking perofrmance in Thorncliffe Park, the most Liberal Part of the riding. He wooed everyone there, and clearly won that debate. If he could win a crowd in the south, then he should have no problem winning the north. Although, this is not the safest Tory riding, especially with the latest polls, it shouldn't be counted Liberal. If there was a riding in Toronto after the Etobicokes that is most vulnerable it is this one according to many, although I understand this is debatebly true, I still think Turnbull will take it for the Tories. It's only because 40% of the riding is just so strongly Tory already that the extra 5-10% needed to win won't be hard to find.
27/09/03 JW Bennett
Email: jbennett@execulink.com
New Toronto Star poll showing the Liberals with a commanding lead over the Tories in the City of Toronto, 53%-21%, meaning that the Tories have no "safe seat" anywhere in the 416 area code. Kathleen Wynne seems to be a strong candidate, and I have doubts about whether Turnbull can survive a Tory wipeout in the City of Toronto. Predicting a Liberal Gain here.
27/09/03 R.H.
At this moment, David Turnbull has to be longing for the gold-plated pension that the Tories eliminated! It is time to put this riding in the Liberal column. With the Tories (21%) running behind the NDP (22%) in the 416 area code according to the latest Ipsos-Reid poll, Turnbull should be added to the list of Toronto Tories who will be going down to defeat. With the Liberals at 53% in that poll of Toronto, it is hard to imagine what Tories, if any, will survive in the city.
27/09/03 lrs
polls point to a Lib massive majority-Tory Mpp around since 1990- voters will go witha change- education as stated in previous submissions-if promises not kept in health care and education- or no signifiant improvement then this a type of riding nert time that wont go Liberal
27/09/03 Burke
Email: mbc@ica.net
With the final round of polling suggesting the Liberals are running at 50% in Toronto this riding should be placed in the Liberal column. Support for Turnbull is beginning to fade in my area of the riding. More and more Liberal lawn signs are popping up. I still think it will be close, but on election night the voters of Don Valley West will send Kathleen Wynne to Queen's Park.
26/09/03 Mike
Well, obviously down in Bedford Park Wynne is getting a ton of support. Even Paul Davidson managed to get more than 75% of the southern most parts of the riding. But I encourage you to go to the northern part, the ones sited as the most rich in the city in many recent newspaper articles (i.e. Bridal Path, St. Andrews and York Mills Gardens, then see who's out numbering who. Turnbull was never expected to clinch the southern parts of the riding, in fact I'd be surprised if he got even 2 out of ten votes there. His support, however, is too great up in the north, and those are the people who send him to Queen's Park every year. It all bows down to this: The percentage of people that will show up to the polls from the northern parts of the riding compared to the southern parts. Whoever gets the higher turn out wins. As of now, I'm giving the edge to Turnbull
25/09/03 coffeeguy
Well I can't speak for the Lawrence Park area but in my area (Bedford Park) support for Turnbull is low. This area has lots of upper middle class young families and speaking with my neighbors they are concerned with their children's education, not with tax cut gimics like the mortgage deductability. Every 3rd-4th house has a Wynne sign and they outnumber Turnbull at least 10 to 1. Maybe Turnbull will pick up support in some of the more conservative parts of the riding, but I'm definitely getting the sense from my neighbors that he's going down. By the way Wynne has dropped off literature 5 times to my house - don't know what the guy below was saying about her not canvessing, or maybe she is just targetting specific areas...
24/09/03 JS
No one should be surprised at the supposed "low" turnout of Conservatives at any all-candidate debates or any other events. Conservatives, by their very nature, don't make a lot of noise or call a lot of attention to themselves. It's why the media was wrong in 1995 when they were calling for a Liberal win, and it's why they were wrong again in 1999 when they predicted Harris' premature demise, and it's why the Don Valley West debate seemed stacked against Turnbull. This is a riding that has a lot of bedrock Conservative support, which was demonstrated immediately following the leaders' debate on September 23 -- Turnbull's office was overrun with voters requesting lawn signs in response to Eves' performance (or was it the insincerity of McGuinty's brand new media training?) Either way, you'll need a candidate with a lot more credibility and large-scale populism than Wynne to unseat Turnbull in this riding.
24/09/03 Mike
-Just a side note- Turnbull has been receiving a lot of attention from the media lately in a positive light. He has appeared on Global TV numerous times and his signs have been backdrops for many newscasters. This may help his name get out a touch too. Eves has also visited this riding twice, and both times with a successful speech and a loud and excited crowd. McGuinty hasn't come out to support Wynne once in this debate and she is getting little attention! She has not sent out any literature, and although started canvassing way back last year, she forgot to come back to our area at election time and is therefore losing a lot of credibility due to the fact that people don't even remember her! These aspects of attention and rememberance may seem small, but voters usually like to get acquainted with the candidate that they are ticking off. It seems they have little connection with Wynne. Although she was a school trustee, she was NOT a trustee in this riding. Her name on the ballot is new.
24/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
A follow-up. I have a friend who's a Tory campaign manager and he says "Turnbull's in big trouble". They are going to put all their resources into Gilchrist/Kells/Young in an effort to salvage the seats they have. Kathleen Wynne is going to Queen's Park and I predict a margin of victory of over 10%!
24/09/03 Tom
Email: tomtomtom@hotmail.com
I too was at the York Mills candidate meeting and Turnbull clearly won. There were many opposed to Turnbull and were jeering him, no doubt, but there were also as many cheering him on for sure. He handled the questions with grace and here's something else to think about: they filled the room with teachers! The general public, however was VERY pro-Tory. Just another point of view on the same debate...
23/09/03 Hackitude
I was at the all-candidates meeting at York Mills Collegiate, and Turnbull got visibly rattled by the jeering of the approx. 50% of the room that was vehemently against him. If the Tories can't pack a room in the York Mills part of the riding that has been bedrock Conservative since the Davis years, then they can't hold this riding. Put this one into the Liberal camp.
22/09/03 Will
Many people seem to believe that it is a Liberal steal for sure. Here's the real deal on why it will go conservative: 1. The northern parts of the riding are the richest in Ontario, with huge turn outs, giving the Conservatives a massive boost, compared to the southern end which is Liberal but with much smaller turn out numbers. 2. Turnbull has huge name recognition, he has run here 4 times and has won all 4 3.Wynne is extremely controversial and people may feel reluctant voting for her. Although this race will be the thightest one in Toronto, do not be oblivious to the fact that the PCs usually win in this riding. For those of you who believe Wynne is winning the sign wars, check out the Bayview/York Mills area. Tthe NDP candidate is weak, which wont help Turnbull, but perhaps he wil get the Middle Eastern vote? In a close one: PC 47% LIB 45% NDP 5% Other 3%
22/09/03 Tom
It will be tight, there is no denying it, but Turnbull's campaign (I'm on it) is working very hard, and is doing quite well. He is gaining a lot of support umong the upper region of the riding and that is clearly seen in the law sign war which Turnbull out paces Wynne more than 3:1. This is a tiny indicator, but usually the people of DVW do not put signs up on lawns , but then vote for the conservative candidate. It has been help by Turnbull for 13 years and by the conservatives for over two decades. Not likely to change now!
22/09/03 Alexander
Kathleen Wynne has a real shot at beating Mr. Turnbull in this riding. When reading previous posts, I am not really shocked to hear there are noises about Turnbull starting a "whisper campaign" concerning Wynne's sexuality. Coming from the Conservatives, is it really surprising? Its so unfortunate that in this day and age a guy would resort to this level. They must be really desperate. For this reason, among others, the riding will be going to Kathleen Wynne.
21/09/03 Will
Email: wjohns@hotmail.com
This race will be one of the tightest if not the tightest race in Toronto. It seems people are putting down Turnbull a lot, but the guy has tons of name recognistion in this community; he's been an MPP here for over 13 years! Many speculate that the PC's Toronto seats will be divided between the Libs and them. This is not fair for each riding has nothing to do with the other and everything is indiviudal! Factors to why Turnbull will beat Wynne include: 1. strong support from Northern part of riding (which includes the richest parts of Canada) 2. Low turn out from the southern part which would most probably vote Liberal. 3. Strong Anti- Wynne flyers of deep impact. If these factors come in to play, Turnbull will have it. A small NDP may casue a problem though, but perhaps Naqvi will garner some Middle Eastern vote that would normally vote Liberal. Verdict: 45%PC 41%Lib 9%NDP 5% Other
20/09/03 Cosmonaut
This is one riding where strategic voting may come into play. Even hardcore New Democrats who in general shun strategic voting are suggesting that NDP supporters vote Liberal here to get rid of Turnbull. Also the Turnbull people are desperate and apparently have started a whisper campaign about Wynne's sexuality.
20/09/03 Wayne
Turnbull did not show up to an all-candidates meeting in Bedford Park. According to some neighbourhood sources, he was worried about the response he would get from parents angry about a school closure. Unlike Willowdale, where David Young is blowing away Zimmer, this riding is going liberal-for sure!
19/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Liberal gain. Here's why: 1) Scarborough East, Willowdale, Don Valley West and Etobicoke-Lakeshore are the Tory-Liberal dogfights. Neither party will win all of them so I predict a 2-2 split. Scarborough East/Don Valley West=Liberal. Etobicoke-Lakeshore/Willowdale=Tory. 2) David Turnbull's arrogance and seemingly inability to care about anything represents why Ontarians will vote out this government. Shouldn't he go with it? 3) Kathleen Wynne is a good candidate. Her track record on the board hasn't been fabulous but it's better than most of the trustees who do nothing. 4) No name ran against Turnbull last time and made it close. Name recognition alone might close the gap especially considering Turnbull has been dumped to some stupid invisible cabinet post. Conlusion... Kathleen by about 3,000 unless Eves drastically turns things around in the debate.
19/09/03 o
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
Well known and respected school trustee + incompetent incumbent + unpopular negative ad campaign + unrealistic government promises + small c conservative voters = big Liberal win.
15/09/03 Burke
I just recently moved into Leaside and I have to say that I disagree with Bryan about the lawn sign war. Wynne is out-pacing Turnbull 3-1 in my neighbourhood at Laird and Eglinton. This will be one of the tightest races in Toronto, but I think Wynne has an edge over Turnbull. My new neighbours and I were talking and it seems that people are tired of the Tories. The soccer moms that I was speaking with at the local soccer field are tired of large class sizes and run down schools. They are leaning or committed to Wynne. So, it should be interesting. But depending on the outcome of the leaders debate I would be prepared to put this one in the Liberal column.
Although demographics might favour the Tories under usual circumstance, this election should see few Tories survive in Toronto. Unlike Young, Turnbull is not see as all that creditable in his riding. Wynne should win here.
11/09/03 Ringleader Sally
Right off the top I have to say that Kathleen Wynne can't win this riding. David Turnbull has the better campaign team and that's pretty clear already. Turnbull also has the wedge issues to hit Wynn with and she can't respond. Turnbull will be one of the few Tories in Toronto to be re-elected.
10/09/03 Derek
Email: dereklipman@hotmail.com
Kathleen Wynne is a dynamic candidate, well known in the riding, and highly regarded in the books of high-end Liberals. She is a far stronger candidate than Paul Davidson, who narrowly lost the race in 1999. The re-tooling of this riding has severely hurt Turnbull, who used to rely mainly on wealthy homeowners and landlords to send him to Queens Park. His last term has been the most tumultous of his political career, having to endure an embarrasing gaffe during his reign as Transportation minister, when he referred to a deadly stretch of the 401 as a "pleasant drive". According to some tory insiders, this was the ultimate reason for his demotion. The Liberals must concentrate on turning out the ethnic vote. As mentioned in a previous post, there is little support for turnbull among minority voters. Wynne is well liked by parents for her work as a school trustee, and the riding is filled with young families. Coupled with strong candidates in the Scarborough free-for-all ridings, the liberals have learned from their past mistakes, and are going to win this riding, unseating a nothing MPP.
10/09/03 Bufffy The Liberal Slayer
It seems like people on this site seem to think that lawn signs decide election outcomes. If that were the case, then we wouldn't bother having people cast ballots on election day. We'd just count up who had the most signs. I can tell you that people in Don Valley West traditionally don't clutter up their lawns with signs at election time. What they do is come out and vote and in this case it's going to be for Turnbull. This is a small c Conservative riding and Wynn is not going to be able to turn anywhere near enough votes to win it. Someone mentioned all the churches that have been built here in the last four years. These churches have huge congregations that are being mobilized to defeat Wynn. I now predict that Turnbull will win by 5000 votes.
09/09/03 Bryan
This is going to be one of the tightest races in Toronto. It is a very important race for both parties, and the mudslinging will continue. Apparently Turnbull is playing the sexual orientation card which is quite shameful. That being said, he has a strong level of support in leaside, especially with seniors, who seem to have voted for him for him since the 1950's. The Turnbull camp has filled leaside with large signs, yet it seems pretty even in terms of signs. He has virtually NO support in the ethnic community (Thorncliffe), and is far weaker than Wynne in bedford park. This is another riding where it will go down to the wire, and the better run campaign will win. One thing working for the Liberals, is the fact Andrew Bevan is running Wynne''s campaign. He is an excellent campaign manager, and is extremely organized. A sign war could develop.
05/09/03 coffeeguy
Now that the election campaign has started, as a resident of Don Valley West, it certainly looks like Wynne is off to a fast start. Don't know how much signs on lawns are an indicator but in our neighborhood (Bedford Park area), Wynn signs outnumber Turnbull at least 10 to 1. Seams almost ev ery 3-4 house has a Liberal sign on it. Speaking with neighbors, there doesnt seem to be alot of support for Eves and the Tories. Most are telling me they are looking for a change. I'd say things are looking up for Wynne.
02/09/03 John
Xena is probably right - Turnbull has been doing a masterful job playing to the homophobes in DVW and it may be enough to save the political hide of somebody who has little else going for him as a candidate. He has been playing up the fact that he is in a "traditional" relationship to contrast his status to his opponents and while I find that tactict to be disgusting, a mjority of voters in his riding may disagree.
27/08/03 Xena
I have a great deal of respect for Kathleen Wynne and I'm sure she'll do all she can to win Don Valley West. The problem is despite my respect for Kathleen, I can't forget what kind of riding Don Valley West is. Besides the wealthy people that live in the riding, there are also a growing number of new wave churches that have sprung up in the past few years. These churches have large congregations that will turn into one issue voters based on the same sex marriage issue. This comibination of support will be enough to re-elect David Turnbull. Turnbull and Steve Gilchrist might be the only two Tory MPP's left in Toronto after the election.
22/08/03 Christmas Elf
The Liberals are going to take lots of seats from the Tories on election day in December. Your Christmas Elf says that Turnbull will not be one of the Tories to get beat. Kathleen Wynne is going to do well,but Don Valley West if full of big houses filled with voters who have done very well under the Tory government. They like things the way they are and will keep supporting Turnbull. If the Liberals are ever to win this seat, they need someone from Bay Street to be their candidate. Only then will they have a chance.
05/08/03 Fred
Turnbull has been playing the sexual-orientation card in door-to-door canvassing in the riding and I think it will backfire. Turnbull is a nothing minister and if the Liberals take the election, they should be able to take DV West.
22/07/03 Backseat Driver
Kathleen Wynn is a good candidate running in a very bad riding for the Liberals. David Turnbull and his supporters play the tax cut card to perfection in a riding and there is now way he'll lose. If I were Kathleen, I would have run for city council in Toronto this time and then looked at moving to the provincial level. When election day comes, Wynn will have run a good campaign but it won't matter because this is the safest Tory riding in Toronto and it won't change hands in 2003.
28/06/03 The Hulk
Don Valley West is one of the richest ridings in Ontario. People here have benefitted more from the Tory tax cuts than just about anywhere in the province. There are large sections of this riding where a liberal candidate will get nothing but doors slammed in their faces when they canvass. I have a lot of respect for Kathleen Wynne but she should have run in Etobicoke North instead of this riding.
30/05/03 Crash
The seperate school lockout is a gift to Turnbull. Now when the election is called in September, Wynne will have to campaign for a return to strikes a lockouts while Turnbull will reap the benefits of an end to any school breaks due to labour problems.
21/05/03 Reality Check
Thanks to the Seperate school lockout in Toronto, the Tories have new life in this riding. No question parents in Toronto are tired of the ongoing problems in education and want an end to it. Parent blame everyone for the problems in education, including school trustees like Kathleen Wynne. That's why there's a lot of support for the Tory bill to end teacher strikes and lockouts. Turnbull will use this issue in Don Valley West and it will be the difference.
04/04/03 Bruce
From the looks of it, the Liberals are putting together a strong on-the-ground campaign -- much stronger than last time. Since the big issue here is how many people come out to vote in Flemingdon and Thorncliffe, this will be a big key. Wynne's best attribute is the network this very personable candidate has created. She'll flood this constituency with volunteers -- and those volunteers will make all the difference. Bye-bye David Turnbull!
21/03/03 El Predicto
Have to say that AS is wrong. This is a safe Tory seat and Kathleen Wyne is far from a star candidate. As far as amalgamation still being an issue, that's just not on the radar any more in Toronto. David Turnbull survived the people who tried to used the mega city as an issue last time and he'll hang on to this seat for the Tories.
18/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
This is an odd one. It displays attributes of being potentially the safest PC seat in Toronto. Yet it's so absorbed *within* Toronto that, since amalgamation, it's been touch-and-go. And it also contains the very heavily tenanted and Liberal Thorncliffe and Flemingdon neighbourhoods. And the Liberals have a star candidate, as far as it goes. That the 1999 race was as close as it was is evidence of how the climate has changed. Might it be 1987 again, with the Tories nuked in the 416? Stay tuned...
17/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Dave Turnbull to win Don Valley West. Kathleen Wynne will fall behind in this race because she won't be able to handle all the baggage she'll be carrying from the school board. Turnbull will be handicapped by some old baggage too but he's gotten used to carrying the weight. I see Turnbull pulling away with this one and coasting to the victory circle.
16/03/03 Xam Nibur
I live in a very tory neighbourhood...yet with new familes comming in and a former school trustee in the riding this will be a very exiciting race. I believe that Wynne has the potential to win, yet Dave Turnbull also has strong roots. The outcome is too close to call and expect a narrow victory for one of the candidates!
13/03/03 Not Non Partisan
David Turnbull in a walk. Kathleen Wynne could have been a good candidate -- for the NDP. Sewell's sycophant will have a tough time selling herself in this way upscale neighbourhood. Imagine way-left school trustee Wynne in the same caucus as way-right trustee Donna Cansfield -- the Libs are an idelogical mess!
11/03/03 Chris C
Though it will be a hard-fought race, I think Don Valley West is likely to go red in the upcoming election. The race in '99 was close, taking many by surprise, including some Liberals. Kathleen Wynne is a tireless worker, who is determined to bring about change at Queen's Park. The Liberals have their act together this time-- Kathleen has been their candidate since May and is certainly developing some name recognition in the riding. David Turnbull is not a very likable individual, and is even unpopular within his own party. His demotions in cabinet are evidence of that. Turnbull's been an MPP since 1990, but from what I've seen, as more constituents gain first-hand knowledge of him, he's become less and less popular. The Tories will throw a tonne of money into the riding (they already have) but in my mind, the Liberals work on the ground will prevail. There's just too much of an appetite for change.
27/02/03 PMK
David Turnbull, the sitting MPP, has been elected three times and I wouldn't look for much to change. The riding demographics work for the Tories, while Liberal Kathleen Wynne is one of the Trustees most responsible for the mess at the Toronto District School Board. The voters will hold her accountable for her horrific track record.
14/02/03 El Predicto
The Liberals have a better candidate this time with Kathleen Wynne but Don Valley West is still strong Tory country and the makeup of the riding hasn't changed much in four years. Tory Turnbull has a very good organization and despite his failures at Queen's Park is a strong campaigner. With the NDP up in recent polls it makes it even harder for the Liberals to take this seat. Wynne is going to have the same problem other ridings in the east end of Toronto will experience as Liberals rush to Scarborough Centre to help the high profile councillor Brad Duguid who is heavily favoured to take that riding. Mark this one down for the Tories.
24/12/02 GK
Turnbull is probably the most vulnerable Tory seat in Toronto- even more vulnerable than Hastings or Newman. Turnbull is not a good MPP but I nevertheless doubt Kathleen Wynne is going to be that great of a candidate. The Tories will put money in here like it is going out of style. The NDP is completely out of it here so the Grits don't have much room to pick up there. If this situation holds, this will be an extremely close race.
13/11/02 AL
I wouldnt ocunt the Tories out of this one! The hand picked Liberal Kathleen Wynne remains untested and it will be interesting to see how she can stand up to the desperate campaign that the battle-heartned David Turnbull will be running. MAny parents are angry with teachers constant striking and complaining and the school board's as well and this may not work to her advantage. Also Ide expect the tories to put alot of resources in this Toronto seat (rumours have it that 9 million has been saved up for the election to the Liberal war-chest of only 3 million). The Tories know that their support in Toronto is waning, and you can bet that before the election Toronto will be pumped with Tory Money and advertising, as it is clear that the PC Party desperately needs seats in the general TO area.
06/11/02 Andrew Cox
I'm predicting an upset here. Reasons: 1) PC support in East Toronto collapsed between 1999 and 2001, see the Beaches East York by-election. With support for the PCs down 20% in BEY, and polls showing the PCs in free fall in the city of Toronto, this close race becomes a Liberal win. 2) Paul Davidson was low-profile. Kathleen Wynne is anything but. The Tories are obviously afraid for this seat, as they are busily attacking "Dalton McGuinty's hand-picked candidate" at every opportunity. 3) David Turnbull is a really bad MPP. Objectively speaking, he's not very good at all. This is the guy who wanted his gold-plated pension back in June. Dumb, dumb, dumb move. 4) This was pretty close in 1999, and that 7% margin won't stand up to a strong campaign. What the Liberals did in Don Valley East in 1999 will be replicated in Don Valley West in 2003. Turnbull is toast.
This will be an interesting riding to watch in Toronto. Kathleen Wynne, a local school board trustee will be taking on David Turnbull. The Tories support in Toronto has dropped dramatically in the past several months and with Education becoming a key electoral issue in Toronto with the recent take over of the Toronto District School Board it is possible for the Liberals to upset the Tories in this suburban East York riding.

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