Hamilton Mountain

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Hamilton Mountain

Last Update:
4:45 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
11:38 AM 3/23/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Marie Bountrogianni

Progressive Conservative:
Shakil Hassan

New Democratic Party:
Chris Charlton

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Marie Bountrogianni

Federal MP:

Beth Phinney

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 2679

MARIE BOUNTROGIANNI

19076 40.25%

*TREVOR PETTIT

16397 34.6%

CHRIS CHARLTON

10622 22.41%

KELLI GALLAGHER

456 0.96%

JIM ENOS

426 0.9%

BOB DANIO

261 0.55%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 12 915

Beth Phinney

22 536 50.9%

Mike Scott

9 621 21.7%

John Smith

7 467 16.9%

James Stephenson

4 387 9.9%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 111325

1996 105316

1991 98477

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 28965

20-39 31835

40-59 23950

60+ 20585

Avg Household Income
$52544

Labour Participation 61.70%

Unemployment 8.80%

Canadian Citizen
95.39%

Canadian Born 75.12%

Ontario Born 68.31%

Immigrant 24.64%

Visible Minority 10.99%

Aboriginal 0.68%

First Language

English 80235

French 1405

Italian 5340

Residence

House 80.30%

Apartment 19.53%

Owned 68.19%

Rented 31.81%

Avg Dwelling Value $145996

Education

University 12845

College/Trade School 26395

Secondary 33365

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	01/10/03	GB Email: garth_7ca@yahoo.com
I have organized for the NDP in many elections. This is a riding that might swing "our" way but the odds are against it. There is too much ground for the NDP to pick up and the PC's finished second last time. If my Mathematics is correct, the NDP should get about 30-35% (about 50% higher than the last election) because their provincial numbers have shown that much of an increase. This is not enough to carry the riding.
	29/09/03	JT Email:
My response to Bill's comments is the following: He is dreaming. The only change to my previous prediction on 08/08/03 is that many conservatives will stay home and their percentage would probably drop as low as 26%. My new prediction is: LB 50% PC 26% NDP 21% Other parties 3%
	27/09/03	Bill Email:
This riding could go easily to the NDP. With the media showing bias to the Liberals (i.e. Globe and Mail declaring a Liberal victory), many protest votes could easily go to the NDP now that it seems likely that the Liberals are a sure win. However, this could split the left of centre vote providing a possible PC Hassan win. I've never seen so many NDP signs in a riding like this before.
	26/09/03	Craig Email:
Liberals to easily hold on, with Bountroigianni becoming the Minister responsible for Colleges and Universities. This was a fairly marginal riding in 1999, but the Tories have floundered, the NDP might make some gains and should finish second but it won't be nearly enough. Current prediction: Bountrogianni 49%, Charlton 29%, Hassan 20%, others 2%.
	22/09/03	RL Email:
I don't think the Liberals can lose this riding. Marie has done well with constituents, especially as an advocate for Post Secondary Education. The opposition seems inadequately prepared to dethrown her.
	08/08/03	JT Email:
This is a response to JS comments that the results of this riding will be "too close". Please check the facts: FEDERAL ELECTIONS-HAMILTON MOUNTAIN RIDING 1997 LIBS 46% NDP (16%) (CHRIS CHARLTON) 2001 LIBS 50.9% NDP (9.9%) PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS-HAMITLON MOUNTAIN RIDING 1995 LIBS 34%(MARIE BOUNTROGIANNI) NDP (25%) (BRIAN CHARLTON) 1999 LIBS 40%(MARIE BOUNTROGIANNI) NDP (22%) (CHRIS CHARLTON) I disagree that the results will be "too close". Marie will win this seat by a double digit margin because she did a terrific job representing her constituents for the past four years. My prediction is: LIBS 48% CONSERVATIVES 34% NDP (16%) OTHERS (2%)
	15/06/03	JS Email:
On first glance this seat looks safe-ish for the Grits. But the NDP are polling higher in Hamilton than most of the rest of Ontario... Too close.
	20/04/03	IanB Email:
I agree with Petrol Pete's assessment of Marie Bountrogianni (with one minor sticking point -- she's Greek, not Italian). Because of the spread of the suburbs on the Mountain it has moved away from its NDP past, and Dr. Bountrogianni has proven to be one of the best (if not THE best) of the Hamilton-area MPPs. She will win on election day.
	11/04/03	paul Email:
Marie, will win this seat for the libs by a decent margin. Along with Agostino as a shot as one of 2 thministers from hamilton. Maybe a Junior post to start but will do well.The NDP will come 3rd in the riding.
	04/04/03	Petrol Pete Email: petrolpete@hotmail.com
It will be a tough haul for the NDP to defeat an incumbent Grit anywhere in the province. While the NDP will have an outside chance especially if McGuinty has a mid-campaign collapse, Charlton would not be the NDP candidate best poised to exploit it. Hypothetically, even if McGuinty were to collapse, a sensible voter comparison of Bountrogianni vs Charlton will keep the paint on the office walls red. Bountrogianni is taken seriously and is seen to have Grit Cabinet potential. Charlton has quite a ways to go before making an impression of local accoplishments as opposed to simply being a NDP staffer. That matters in Hamilton. Furthermore, while fellow Hamiltonian Agostino gets a lot more publicity, McGuinty insiders aren't sure if Dominic can handle a major Cabinet posting and is being lined up for the Whip position. Marie's credentials are strong; she would be a young, Italian and well educated woman in Cabinet and her loyalty to Dalton is clear. Dominic is seen as a self promoter and unhealthily enamoured with Sheila Copps. Expect McGuinty to have her pencilled in for Colleges and Universities.
	01/04/03	Stelco Steve Email:
I live on the mountain and everyone I talk to thinks Marie B. has done a good job fighting for Hamilton. She deserves to be re-elected.
	24/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
By being elected in 1999 and performing like a shadow-cabinet charm, Bountros-Bountros Gianni has earned more than her licence to stay. Otherwise this would have been an effective three-way draw all over again. The NDP, especially, would like to revisit past local glories under the Charlton marque; but this is no Windsor-St. Clair, and they'd better be prepared for a strong(ish) second at best, especially in light of the fast-growing southern reaches of the riding having the least natural NDP history or inclination. And though said growth favours the Tories over the NDP, with no incumbent in place the deck's stacked against them as well. Best for non-Liberals to treat the provincial Mountain as a dress rehearsal for challenging Beth Phinney in the next federal election...
	16/02/03	M.S. Email:
Marie Bountrogianni will hold this seat. SM - the 22% poll has been sufficiently debunked. Every poll since then has the NDP down in the 10-15% range where they've been stuck since 1995. The poll you're talking about was a call-back poll of 400 people, not very reliable. And as for the NDP being on the ball - they only had one issue for the past 18 months, and now that issue is gone. What else have they got? When it came to fighting to keep our schools open and our hospital programs running, Bountrogianni was leading the fight. And she's been holding the Tories feet to the fire on the double cohort as well. As for the contention she'll be getting a fight from both sides, how is that different from 1999? The NDP have nominated the same candidate in Chris Charlton, a Queen's Park staffer. If you've ever had her knock on your door, you probably didn't find her particularly charismatic. Prickly may be more like it. And the Tories - last time they had a sitting MPP, this time they have a no-name candidate. There's no reason to suggest this will go any way but Liberal.
	07/01/03	Ivan Email:
If the NDP numbers are up (which is probably a "blip" anyway), they will hurt the Liberals and allow the Tories to come up the middle in Hamilton Mountain. The NDP will not win anywhere in Hamilton, except possibly in Hamilton-West. Marie is well known in the riding and Liberal numbers are not in a 1995 style free fall. Liberal hold.
	19/12/02	SM Email: spmeades@yahoo.ca
The Liberals have done truly poorly during this session of the legislature, while the NDP have been on the ball, in terms of policy, and latest polls have them at 22% provincially. The NDP executive is very optimistic about their chances in Hamilton- Just today I heard someone predict and NDP sweep of the city (granted, it's only three seats, one of which is already held, but still- when you're a caucus of 9, 2 more is a big deal). I've seen little evidence that would suggest the Liberals are ready for serious competition from the right and left.
	18/11/02	robert e Email:
Very doubtful that the Tories can win this riding back considering the hydro fiasco. Also doubtful that the ND's can win a riding from an opposition member if there is a government backlash vote in spite of the party throwing lots of money and resource into this riding - the ND's should concentrate on the ridings they currently hold and Tory held ridings with vulnerable members.
	02/11/02	AL Email:
Marie Bountrogianni will hold for sure!! The city of Hamilton is not getting enough financial attention! The tories tried to fix this problem by amalgmation, but not even the wealth of Ancaster can make up for Hamiltons shortcomings! This city is in dire need for help, and its seen by many people that the Tories wont provide this help! This seat Would go for any person who represents the Libs! Good work Marie!!!
	21/10/02	Jord Email: jord@jord.ca
Dr. Bountrogiann is a popular MPP and with the Liberals seeming to have the momentum going into the election this should be a keeper for McGuinty & Co.

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