Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Hamilton West

Last Update:
4:47 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
3:44 PM 01/10/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Judy Marsales
Progressive Conservative:
Doug Brown
New Democratic Party:
Roy Adams
Green Party:
Hamish Campbell

David Christopherson

Federal MP:
Stan Keyes

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

15625 37.84%

12261 29.7%

12037 29.15%

495 1.2%

403 0.98%

236 0.57%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality13 978
Stan Keyes
21 273 52.7%
Leon O'Connor
7 295 18.1%
Catherine Hudson
5 300 13.1%
Ron Blackie
5 024 12.4%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation61.50%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born69.57%
Ontario Born61.84%
Visible Minority14.07%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$148527

College/Trade School22435

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01/10/03 lrs
someone who lives in area- Tories still getting some support-older voters- if Tories can hold on to 15% of vote- will be hard to liberals to gain seat - if NDP loses here only due to lib sweep in this area and failure of Hampton to provide the necessary leadership in this campiagn unitl debate-who will be able to pull vote out if weather is bad tomorrow- are Liberals throwing workers from surrounding ridings into this seat? with other seats in area sewn up, they should
01/10/03 GB
Email: garth_7ca@yahoo.com
The NDP vote in this election (according to the polls) will be about 35%-40% higher than last election. As in most previous elections, the increase will be concentrated in those ridings where there is little perception of a possible PC victory. This is such a riding. The NDP held the riding in the last election with 12.5% of the vote and they will hold it in this election (where I expect them to get between 18% and 20% of the vote).
01/10/03 October Road
Everyone knows that Judy Marsales is a joke but what people haven't done is give Roy Adams enough credit for putting the NDP in a position to hold on to Hamilton West. Adams had big shoes to fill when he took over for the very popular David Christopherson in this election. Adams won the only debate that all the candidates showed up at and he brought together a well oiled machine in Hamilton West.
30/09/03 Craig
I have finally settled on Roy Adams to become a member of (my prediction) an NDP caucus of about 14. The NDP have gained the upper hand at the right time, the Liberals have run a horrible campaign here and they seem to believe that Adams will take this seat. Current prediction: Adams 44%, Marsales 36%, Brown 15%, others 5%.
30/09/03 The End
Judy Marsales has run the worst campaign in Hamilton history while Roy Adams has rallied the traditional union support that will keep this seat for the NDP. For the Liberals, this will be a major loss becasue Hamilton West was theirs for the taking and they gave it back to the NDP. Marsales has little or no campaign team while the Adams will have hundreds of union members out at the doors on election day to get his vote out to the polls. If I were to guess what the outcome will be, I would say that Adams will win by 2500 votes.
29/09/03 sc
It has been repeatedly stated, both here and in the press, that each of the three major parties have at least a chance of winning this riding. Not only that, Hamilton West consists of parts of two historically distinct ridings (Hamilton West and Hamilton Centre) which are in many important respects quite different places, so historical trends aren't as useful as they'd be in other ridings. So this is a tough riding to call. However I think the combination of union/industrial voters in the east side of the riding, middle to upper-middle class voters with families and university degrees and students and academics in the west end of the riding make the NDP a good bet to hold this riding. And they do seem to have been paying special attention to this riding, getting the signs out as well as multiple mass mailings, the most recent of which was clearly aimed at soft Liberal supporters. This riding will probably be tight, but if the NDP manages to get the vote out with the same energy and coordination that they've shown with their advertising in this riding, they should keep Hamilton West for another electoral cycle.
29/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I've changed my mind. It seems at though the NDP are going to improve on their province wide popular vote from '99 so they will probably be able to keep this seat. I must agree with Christopher that there is "no chance" PCs will win this riding on a vote split because, as he said, they will not get a third of the vote. They will be lucky to get 20%. Predictions saying that they will win this riding undermine the credibility of this project. Anyway, back to business. Hampton and McGuinty have both been targeting this riding. However, this week McGuinty is heading off to Simcoe North and Haliburton-Victoria-Brock whereas I would imagine Howard will stick to the 15 or so seats where he has a hope in hell. As I said previously, the NDP are poised to improve on their popular vote by about 4% or so province wide. Now that is going to be much larger in ridings that they have targeted considering the NDP has so many "dud" ridings where they will fail to get 5%. In light of all this, I give a narrow edge to the NDP, allowing them to get some new blood into caucus (with Sid Ryan).
29/09/03 Stewart Zophres
I agree that Marsales campaign has stalled. She hasn't been seen at any of the community debates, probably due to her poor performance on Cable 14. Or maybe she's too busy running her real estate business. That leaves me to wonder whether she'll be a part time MPP if she wins.
29/09/03 Julius
There is no way this is a Liberal riding, and frankly, recent numbers are suggesting that Marsales has dropped off the face of the earth in terms of popularity in this riding. After being lambasted at a televised debate, she stopped doing public appearances, missing three straight debates, one at McMaster University, the other two at area high schools. This is a neck and neck between the NDP (Westdale) and the PC (West Hamilton, downtown). I call NDP at 40%, PC at 36%, Liberal at 20%, others at 4%.
26/09/03 Craig
I have withdrawn my Liberal prediction, since the Marsales campaign has stalled and Roy Adams is being pushed heavily by residents and unions. As for the Tories? They'll have a hard time getting their deposit back, so the vote split is meaningless. Any Tory gains would be at the NDP benefit, but I don't see that happening. Instead, hard work has allowed Adams to draw virtually even with Marsales. It will be a race to watch! Current prediction: Marsales 42%, Adams 41%, Brown 13%, Campbell 3%, others 1%.
26/09/03 David
Email: penyberth@hotmail.com
NDP by a nose over the Liberals. There will be a vote split, but the PC will not benefit. Too much ground to gain, not enough time. NDP with the incumbency factor and a huge on the ground effort should win with about 40 to 38 for the Liberals and 20 for the PCs. Reasoning: the NDP vote appears to be holding, the Liberals appear to be gaining PC votes. People will see the Liberals likely to form a government and a few will like the idea of limiting their power with an NDP member. Historically, the Libs have not held the West end for some time, so the incumbency wins out.
25/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
To JK: In '99, the incumbent Tory MPP received less than 30% of the vote. She almost finished third. There is absolutely *no chance* that the Tories will improve on that performance this time -- which means that they *cannot* take this riding on a vote-split (even if the Greens poll around 4% or so). I can only imagine that these recent Tory predictions are some sort of elaborate joke; they certainly have no basis in reality.
JS's suggests that the NDP and Liberals might split the anti-Tory vote and allow the PCs to 'come up the middle'. I doubt if that is possible. Last time the combined Liberal and NDP vote was more than double the PC vote, and this time the Tory vote should go down in comparison to last time. So even if the Liberal and NDP split the vote perfectly, each will get more votes than the Tories. I opined a liberal victory earlier. I am less sure now.
25/09/03 TM
Come on JS! Are you finished dreaming? There is a real chance the Tories will be defeated soundly across the province and you think they will pick up a riding in Hamilton! There is no chance this will happen. The Tories received less than 30 percent in Hamilton West last time. This time they will receive around 20 percent. Definately a Liberal win here.
24/09/03 JS
I'm astonished that no one has talked about the possibility of Doug Brown benefitting from the vote split and going straight up the middle. With Christopherson leaving, if left the riding wide open, and while Adams appears to be the front-runner, Marsales has been making a decent showing, if on name recognition alone. There is a distinct possibility that Brown will stand to gain the most from the split in votes between the two other candidates. This will be an interesting one to watch come election night.
24/09/03 The Peanutbutter Kid
Hamilton used to be a labour union town. As the years have gone by, the unions have had less and less influence in Hamilton to the point where they are now making a last stand in Hamilton West. Everyone knew that without David Christopherson that the NDP would have a difficult time keeping Hamilton West. That's why unions like CUPE, the Steel Workers, the Skilled Trades and the teachers have pulled every worker they can from miles around to try to hold this riding. NDP campaigns from neighboring ridings have sent all their workers to Hamilton West to help Roy Adams. This strategy is killing NDP campaigns in the rest of the area but it's working in Hamilton West where the Adams campaign has hundreds of workers on the street. Adams has won the sign war and looks like he's going to be elected. The NDP are getting help from another unlikely side. The Tories have run a much better campaign in Hamilton West than people thought they would. Doug Brown's campaign has spent most of their time working on voters on the mountain and there he has lots of signs. These are the same people Judy Marsales was counting on to help her win this riding. Marsales is seeing some of her support go to the Tories and this will leave her without enough votes to beat Roy Adams. The NDP decided to make a stand in Hamilton West and it looks like they're going to hold on to Hamilton West.
23/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I was just thinking, a short time ago, that not even the most optimistic Tory would have his/her sights set on Hamilton West. Thank you, RL, for proving me wrong. This is a Liberal/NDP toss-up; the Tories would be advised to look elsewhere.
22/09/03 A
The Liberals are pouring their resources into Stoney Creek where they're trying to defeat Brad Clark. The Liberal campaign in Hamilton West isn't much of an operation with an undergraduate student as campaign manager. The NDP is clearly winning the sign war as well. Time to put this riding in the NDP column.
21/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Liberal gain:A) This was Christopherson's riding, not an NDP riding. B) There are going to be Tory votes going Liberal and that alone should be enough to push the Grits over the top even in the bizarrely unlikely event that the NDP manages to hold their own here. C) The NDP has star candidates in Oshawa and London North Centre where they would do better to spend their resources. D) This concept of the Tories winning on a vote split is just plain silly as to win on a vote split require a third of the vote- something the Tories do not have... Conservative=22%/Liberal=43%/NDP=30%/Others=5%
20/09/03 RL
Email: rleone@uoguelph.ca
This is a three way horse race. The difference will lie on who can get out the vote on election day. It looks like the Liberals are woefully disorganized in the riding. I would give this one to the NDP or the Tories.
20/09/03 Sue Wong
Email: sue_wong69@hotmail.com
It confounds me why this riding is still listed as a race between the NDP and Liberals. It's nice to hear from Pete Cassidy, who has been an NDP candidate several times over telling us how he feels that the NDP candidate is leading and will sweep the riding. But a quick look around and a quick chat with strangers in line at the local Tim Horton's or Fortino's shows that no matter how convincing we sound, it doesn't make it true. It's nice to say that this riding which spreads from the very rich against the escarpment to the very poor in the north end of the city, is profoundly NDP and I agree there is a littany of former NDP members to prove the case. However, the riding is very different and much, much more diverse from the Hamilton West where the champagne socialists felt good about electing Dick Allan. I support David Christopherson and will vote for him for mayor of Hamilton, but I had the opportunity to meet Roy Adams, a let me tell you, he's no David Christopherson. I was even more turned off when I saw him tonight on CHTV news assuring reporter Randy Steele that dispite opinion polls and unpartisan politic pundants there is no doubt, he is well in the lead. None of the candidates here have run for office before. Judy Marsales is a sucessful business owner and understands the community having sold many of us the buildings we choose to call our homes -- Judy Marsales will win this riding with little contest from Adams or anyone else.
19/09/03 DL
Wow! This is a really interesting riding. It could go any way in this election. The ONLY hope for Doug brown is a vote split. I just can't see the people in Christopherson's old riding electing a conservative. I have to agree with Mr. Cassidy's post. Dr. Adams is a really good Candidate for the NDP, and may just be just right for the job, but he does not have the name recognition of Christopherson, and the ghost of Bob Rae is still lurking in Ontarians homes. The NDP is not progressing in the polls, and if anything, they will go down. The left-wing learned a harsh lesson last time with the infamous vote split. Even though this riding was NDP, people are so frustrated with the conservatives this time, Marsales could snag this seat as voters might do anything to make sure a tory doesn't get in.
19/09/03 dot commie
Peter makes some very good points, and he may well be right in his prediction. I will leave my Liberal prediction stand, however. (This is my prediction, not necessarily my preferred candidate.) First, I think it is pretty clear that there will be a swing from PC to Liberal generally in the province, which means some Tory voters are going to vote Liberal in this riding. That shift alone should take the Liberals from 29.1% to (say) 35%. Christopherson won last time with 37.8%. If there is any swing from NDP to Liberal it will result in a Liberal victory. How much will Adams' McMaster association matter? Personally, I don't think it will make much difference, which is only to say that if I vote for Adams--which I have not yet ruled out--his McMaster assocation will play almost no role (and I work at McMaster). (The general question is how much difference local candidates make. A spectacularly good candidate can add a few votes, a spectacularly bad one can lose a few votes, but most of the result depends on a combination of local organization and the provincial campaigns.)
18/09/03 Peter Cassidy
Email: peterjcassidy@yahoo.com
Another riding with lots of Liberal spin about how popular theirs candiate is and how popular the Liberals are in the poll, so concede the ridng without a fight. Howver, in the last election with the Liberals around 50% in the polls at the start, same as now, they ran in Hamilton West a well known experienced candidate, Alderman Frank D'Amico. The reorganized riding was only held partially by the NDP's David Christopherson from Hamilotn Centre, , with the rest (the old Hamilton Est) held by the Tories for one term and the NDP for over a decade before that. End result-Liberals third, far behind the NDP and Tories. With the Liberals in their usual 50% in the polls at the begining of the election, they are running in a riding held wholly by the NDP, a real estate salesperson former Chamber of commerce president, who has nver held elected office and never run for elected office. With all due respect to Judy, she will not have the appeal Frank had to the soft Liberal/soft NDP vote. If she takes votes from any party it will from the few remaining soft Tories. And, for thsoe who want to try to put down Roy Admas, he is Internationally recognized, and a well known Professor at McMaster, with a strong appeal to the acadcmic student community that forms a large part fo the riding, Before the Tories held the odld riding of Hamilton West for one term, it was held for over a decade by Richard Allen, a former McMaster prof with storng ties to the academic student community that formed a formed a large part of the riding. Expect Roy to hold on to all the vote Dave Chrisopherson had and Richard Allen had and eat into the soft Liberals.
12/09/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
NDP invisible/history here? From what I saw this weekend, the west part of downtown looked like a Cheez Doodle from all that Roy Adams signage outnumbering the rest--and rather ominously, it looked like there were fewer Liberal than Tory signs down there. Yes, I know it's a "traditional" NDP/Christopherson neighbourhood; but going by visual evidence, the New Democrats may even be outdoing 1999...
12/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This one is the NDP's to loose. They do not have the advantage of an incumbant, they aren't doing too well in the polls, the Liberals are gaining and the race was close in 99. Of all the seats the NDP won in 99 this is the one most likely to change parties.
12/09/03 Craig
This open seat should land with Judy Marsales, the only seat the NDP is likely going to lose. Roy Adams is not nearly as high profile as Christopherson (and knows he is going downhill) and the Tories are much lower in Hamilton than in 1999. A Liberal near-sweep of Hamilton is what appears to be happening (depending on Stoney Creek). Current prediction: Marsales 53%, Adams 22%, Brown 20%, Campbell 3%, others 2%.
07/09/03 Simon Banks
Even the conservative mayor of Hamilton, Bob Wade, thinks this one is going Liberal. That's what he told CHTV news in an interview last week at the Bell Canadian Open. Doug Brown is having some impact here, Roy Adams (NDP) is invisible. His campaign office opened and June and then closed for the summer. Plus his campaign slogan is something like: "Respected Globally, Honoured Locally." Judy Marsales is the past president of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce and a respected real estate agency owner. She has big name recognition in Hamilton and Hamilton West. If you must say this is a toss-up, then its between the Liberals and Tories. The NDP are history here.
05/09/03 dot commie
I think Hamilton West will go to the Liberals. The NDP vote will surely decline from last time (the recent polls show them falling significantly provincially, though the fall will be smaller here than elsewhere); the Liberals will surely increase their vote (polls have them in the 40s now provincially, and they were only 31% provincially in 1999); the PCs vote will drop significantly, I think, since they lose both the advantage of incumbancy (which they had last time) and probably will slip a little generally. So, a small slip for the NDP in this riding from (say) 38% to 33%, with most of their vote going to the Liberals, and a similar drop in the PCs (29% to 24%), again going to the Liberals. This puts the Liberals from 29% to 39%.
16/08/03 Sideshow Bob
The NDP gave everyone a clear demonstration of just how far they have fallen in Hamilton this week. On August, 13 Howard Hampton and Nova Scotia NDP leader Darrel Dexter attended the annual Hamilton NDP BBQ in Conferation Park. In the glory days of the NDP, this event would always draw 1000 or more from the Hamilton ridings. This year with two NDP leaders attending, the best Roy Adams and the other NDP candidates in the city could bring out was just over 200 people. The unions who used to be the backbone of the NDP in Hamilton have given up on the party leaving it just a hollow shell.
18/07/03 Ringleader Sally
JS doesn't understand that the NDP lost Hamilton West the day city councillor, Andrea Horvath decided she wouldn't run. Since that time, the NDP have struggled to find a c-grade candidate in Roy Adams who has done nothing to light a fire under the few New Democrates left in Hamilton. Even Howard Hampton, who used to be a regular visitor to the Steel City doesn't bother to come around any more. Hamilton West will soon have a new MPP and it won't be Roy Adams. It's going to be Judy Marsales.
18/07/03 The Brain
The NDP have become masters of finding good news in the fact that they're stuck way back in third place. The NDP may be running higher than average in Hamilton. That's not hard because they're running in single digits in large parts of the province like the GTA. The Liberals may be running below average in Hamilton, because they're running over 50 per cent in large sections of the the province. This means in Hamilton West, the Liberal lead over the NDP may only be 20 per cent instead of the 32 per cent province wide average. Spin all you like but that's more than enough to get Judy Marsales elected. Roy Adams is not David Christopherson.
16/07/03 J.S
Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
According to Environics the NDP are polling higher than average in Hamilton, and the Liberals, lower than average. The NDP majority here is, however, probably too small to make a definate prediction.
09/07/03 Gia
Judy Marsales is well known and well liked in the riding. She undoubtedly has support from people in many walks of life. It will be a close race, but Judy will come out on top.
04/07/03 Hotdog
David Christopherson took his best campaign organizers with him when he decided to leave provincial politics and run for mayor of Hamilton. This leaves Roy Adams with little of the key support he needs to win. Judy Marsales is going to win this riding because she's going to take advantage of the NDP weakness.
21/06/03 My Little Pony
Judy Marsales is one of the better candidates the Liberals are running in this election. She runs a very successful business and has been involved in a number of community projects and associations. Roy Adams was not the first choice for the NDP. Outside the university, Adams is not well known. I think this riding will be in Liberal hands after this election.
11/06/03 IanB
I have difficulty understanding Grandpa's assertion of Hamilton West having a "natural Liberal bent." If anything, it has a natural NDP bent, as it was represented by the NDP for years before Lillian Ross took it in 1995, which was essentially a protest vote against the Rae government. Plus the NDP held it for years before Stuart Smith took it while Liberal leader. Also, don't forget, the new, enlargened riding of Hamilton West also takes in a good deal of the former Hamilton Centre, also a riding with an NDP history.
08/06/03 IanB
Uh, Grandpa, Hamilton West WAS an NDP riding from 1982-1995, surviving the Liberal sweep of 1987 (if there was anytime that a Liberal should have been elected here it was then). The NDP won't finish third here -- it will come in either first or second.
07/06/03 Grandpa
Hamilton West was never an NDP riding. It was a David Christopherson riding. Now that David is gone, the riding will revert to it's natural Liberal bent and elect Judy Marsales who looks like she's going to win Hamilton West without any difficulty. The NDP could very well finish third.
03/06/03 IanB
Take with a grain of salt the "bring out the vote" idea among students. This was tried in 1999 in several university ridings and many of the candidates who were endorsed actually ended up losing, such as in London and the Kitchener-Waterloo area. Plus the voting participation of people age 18-24 is incredibly low (despite the fact that those who actually DO vote among this age group are pretty gung-ho about it). Regardless of this, it's pretty much a horse-race in Hamilton West. Both Adams and Marsales have good "credentials"; Adams with his McMaster teaching credentials and activism, and Marsales as a well-respected businesswoman. However, I have doubts as to how well Marsales' name recognition will translate into votes. My experience with people in Hamilton West (where I live) is that people aren't particularly that interested in the Marsales name but more interested in what the candidate has to offer, and both Adams and Marsales have a lot to offer, and either one of them could end up going to Queen's Park after the election.
30/05/03 Crystal Ball
I find the story of Judy Marsales very interesting. I feel that Judy broke a lot of ground for women as she founded what went on to become the most successful realty company in Hamilton. This is no small achievement and makes her to me the favourite to be successful in the political field. I would think that the NDP would have found a better known candidate had Judy not been already in the running.
28/05/03 Rob D.d
Email: robbie_dee@yahoo.com
The Tories are now planning on a fall election and that will help candidates in university ridings, especially those with an academic background such as Adams. He can push a strong "get out the vote" drive among supportive students who will be living in the riding for the school year.
22/05/03 Hammer
There was a story in the Hamilton Spectator last week that a reporter tried to get in touch with the Marsales campaign and nobody got back to him. The NDP are very well organized in the riding and have an army on the streets. Roy Adams has been going door to door and attending a lot of events while nobody knows where the Liberals are. From what I see, the NDP will win.
15/05/03 Number Cruncher
I have found many cases of the party finishing third in a riding and then coming back to win it in the next election. As a result, the numbers do point to the possibility of this happening in Hamilton West. The key figure to look at from the 1999 campaign results is the 29 per cent of the vote that incumbent MPP Lillian Ross received. Looking at the current province wide trends in polling, it is reasonable to conclude that number will be reduced this time. David Christopherson won this riding in 1999 with only 37 per cent of the vote. Without an incumbant, and looking at province wide trends, it is possible to conclude that the NDP vote would be reduced this time. Finally, with no incumbent Tory or NDP members to face, and looking at the province wide trends, the numbers to point to the Liberals increasing their share of the vote. In conclusion, the numbers point to a Liberal victory in Hamilton West.
14/05/03 Grizz
Hamilton West is the only seat the NDP will lose. It was close last time and over all the Liberals are stronger this time. Unless the NDP really gain in the polls the Liberals will steal it.
01/05/03 Craig
Probably the only seat the NDP is going to lose, since they do not have Christopherson and the Liberals have countered with a strong candidate. The erosion of Tory support will also help the Liberals as well, eliminating what was a right-wing vote split in 1999. Predicted results: LIB 48%, NDP 27%, PC 17%, Green 4%.
09/04/03 Scotty
EKOS poll from April 5. Liberals 53% Tories 34% NDP 11%. The NDP are sinking fast. That means Roy Adams is toast. Judy Marsales is going to be the next MPP for Hamilton West.
04/04/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
With the swing going against the Tory Govt the impact on Hamilton West will faviour the Liberals. Last Time Chrsitopherson won on his name only by the smallest of all margins. I know liberals etc who voted NDP because of Christopherson. They are now returning to the liberal party and all four familes I kknow are now voting for Judy Marsales. The NDP will come in second but not be close with the Red Tory vote going Liberal along with others who want a change of Govt.
01/04/03 Stelco Steve
I live in Hamilton and I can tell you what's really going on in Steeltown. In Hamilton, the big unions like CUPE and the Steelworkers still have enough power to keep one riding for the NDP. They did it for Christophersen last time and they'll do it for Roy Adams this time.
12/03/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The selection of Adams in a landslide over Wayne Marston indicates how pathetic the choice for the NDP was. THis is a sad way to lose the riding not running your best(the standing MPP or Horwath) by picking the least unable to win candidate. Marsales will win against a weak Tory candidate with a large plurality pushing 50%
11/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Prof. Roy Adams to win Hamilton West. A smart gambler always checks the racing form so he knows the history. Prof. Richard Allen won this riding several times and like Adams is a Prof at MacMaster. It's going to be a photo finish but Adams will be cross the finish line first.
05/03/03 IanB
It's official -- Wayne Marston is NOT the candidate in Hamilton West, it is former Mac professor Roy Adams. The NDP chose a low-profile candidate, while the Liberals view Marsales as a "star." Since the Tory candidate is a non-entity, I believe Marsales will win this riding because she seems genuinely committed and would do a good job, and has a high profile. Hamilton West is pretty much a swing riding (It has elected Liberals, NDP and Tories since 1981) and not a really strong NDP riding (Christopherson won with 30-some-odd percent last time, as he did in Hamilton Centre in 1995). As for the view that Marsales has zero political experience, neither do the other two candidates, so I guess that doesn't really count. I think Marsales will win this riding.
05/03/03 Rob D.
Roy Adams got the nod to represent the NDP in this riding last night, beating out Spectator columnist Evelyn Myrnie, labor leader Wayne Marston and gay activist Lyla Miklos. Adams is a popular professor emeritus at McMaster and a good fit for this riding. Howard Hampton also attended this nomination meeting personally, signifying the importance of this riding to the NDP.
21/02/03 El Predicto
As long as the NDP remain at around 19% in the polls, it will be hard to take this riding away from them. Don't forget the Liberals finished third here in 1999 with a hight profile city councillor as their candidate. It was the Tories who came in second here last time and they will be putting forward a strong candidate to take a shot at Hamilton West. This means the Liberal candidate, Judy Marsales will have a time time winning this seat for the Liberals. Judy will struggle during the campaign because she has zero political experience. Selling real estate is not the same as running for political office. Coming from a business background, Judy will have to compete with the Tory candidate for support in this part of the community. There's no question that Wayne marsten will be the NDP candidate. He will hold the traditional labour vote the NDP count on in Hamilton West and with a little work, will expand that base to a point where he won't have quite the crossover support that Cristopherson had but he'll be close. Don't forget that the NDP will pour troops into Hamilton West because they know they have to hold on to this seat. There will be NDP workers on every street in Hamilton West and this army will make be enough to pull this one out for their party. In the end, the Liberals and the Tories will split the anti-NDP vote and Marsten will come up the middle. Mark this one down for the NDP.
17/02/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The liberals have found their star candidate to run in Hamilton West. She is Judy Marsales. The Toris had hoped to run Hamilton Spec columnist Andrew Dreschel in Hamilton West. He has decided not to run against her because he respects her too much to cross swords with her. Marsales is the onwer/broker of Judy Marsales Real Estate a business she started froms cratch 15 years ago. She as a sales staff of 35 and a clerical staff of 5. She has contributed her business leadership skills to the Hamilton Burlington and Distrcit Real Estate Board and the Chamber of Commerce serving in various positions includiing the presidencies. IMHO the NDP wil be unable to hold on against this person and a weak Tory noncandidate. Hamilton West will go Liberal and it will not even be close.
12/02/03 IanB
I don't see Marston winning this riding. As desperate as he has been to win something somewhere, eventually settling for the school board, Mr. Marston lives in Hamilton EAST, not West -- I guess he figures that running against Agostino would be sure defeat. He represents the old-fashioned union-based NDP, which is out of touch with the party's new realities. I don't remember her name, but a Spectator columnist is also going for the nomination -- I think she'd be the better candidate. As for Judy Marsales, I wonder how many people are going to Liberal supporters' houses thinking it's up for sale...
05/02/03 Peter Cassidy
Email: peterjcassidy@yahoo.com
The NDP nomination is set for March 4th. My personal choice and predicion is Wayne Marston, president of the Hamilton and District Labour Council and Trustee on the Board of Education. Wayne has a very high Hamilton wide proifle due to the different positions he holds and he has been very acitve city wide for a long time (e.g. he co-chaired the Hamilton Days of action, was one of the Trustees refusing to go along with the education cuts, has been active with poverty groups, injured workers, the peace movement, anti-racism etc.) Also a nice guy. He has wide support in the riding and can mobilzie people across Hamiltonto work for him in the election. The NDP is not taking this riding for granted by any means but with a highly electable candidate and solid resources sshould be in the lead from the start to finish.
30/01/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
In light of the urbane "Jack Layton" image the NDP's now seeking for itself, nominating a unionist like Wayne Marston seems a retrogressive move in the most yuppie-genteel of the Hamilton seats, where professorial Richard Allen types or municipal-workhorse Dave Christopherson or (Andrea Howarth) types seem more apropos. But the Christopherson legacy, plus the fact of the party's fighting to hold every seat it presently has, means this is still absolutely in play for the NDP--even if by default. (Trivia: Xtopherson had the lowest winning percentage of any 1999 victor.)
20/01/03 IanB
The nomination race in the riding is starting to heat up. Judy Marsales, the real estate queen, has announced that she is going for the Liberal nomination, whereas Wayne Marston, labour leader and school trustee, is running for the NDP (even though he lives in the east end -- but that doesn't matter). It looks like there's going to be an interesting race for the Hamilton West seat, but I'm not ready to predict yet.
15/01/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Wayne Marston will be the NDP candidate in Hamilton West. Not sanquine about his ability to hold the ridng for the NDP. The liberals ability to attract a star depends upon their ability to form Govt in this coming election, They get a star candidate and they can win this riding.
14/01/03 Josef Kunzler
Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
Considering the fact that Dr. Marie Bountrogianni led the charge to stop deregulated tuition and became an instant legend in college student political circles and the Toryban Tyranny in amalgating ze school boards - she's got this one in the bag. Expect her to be the MD of fixing the double cohort crisis.
11/01/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Ward 7 councillor Bill Kelly has decided not to run for the Liberals and to run for re-election in his ward. My sources have told me Andrea Horwath(Ward 2 councillor) will also not run for the NDP.The Tories were told no by Ward 6 councillor Tom Jackson. My prediction is Marvin Caplan Ward 1 councillor will run and win for the Liberals. I realize this is a reversal of my original prediction of a NDP win. With the removal of the two best candidates for the NDP this riding is no longer in play for them.
07/01/03 Ivan
Email: iluksic@hotmail.com
The clearest scenario that is emerging is a high-profile Liberal running against Andrea Howarth for the NDP. I do not see the Tories in this race at all. If this scenario happens, it will be a close fight. However, this also being a municipal election year, Andrea risks leaving a most secure position at City Hall for an attempt to be a member of the Third Party at Queens Park. I just don't see how Howarth would trade a rewarding experience in Hamilton for uncertainty and lack of influence in Toronto (which was Christopherson's beef in the first place). If Howarth runs...too close to call. Anybody else...potential Liberal pick up.
04/01/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The liberals are wooing Bill Kelly,Ward 7 councillor and CH pUblic Affairs Host. If he says yes and Andrea says no this toss up can be moved to the liberals. The Liberals are trying with Ward 1 councillor Marvin Caplan too and several others. Jamie West said no.The NDP is courting Andrea Horwath too. Horwath is councillor in Ward 2. She is likely to say no which means the NDP will run Wayne Marston who will say yes. Marsten wants Horwath to run and wil only run if she does not. IMHO the only chance the NDP have to hold this is if Horwath says yes and Kelly says no to the Liberals
31/12/02 IanB
Now that Dave Christopherson has decided not to run, this puts this riding up for grabs. He's done a good job as MPP and I think he would make a good mayor if he wins (he'd beat Wade, but there are others who might want to take a stab at it -- Morrow, Cooke, et al). I'd have to agree with Mr. Ensley that Andrea Horwath will stay at City Hall. The NDP has traditional strength in Hamilton from the old Bob Mackenzie-Richard Allen days, but the city has changing somewhat, with Ham. Mountain, Ham. East, and ADFA all Liberal, and Stoney Creek probably going that way as well. The NDP, with its low number of seats at Queen's Park, will try its best to retain this riding, and the party's concentration on issues like Hydro (where they were proved to be right) will help them. I doubt the Tories will have much of a showing here (their 1995 victory was a fluke), so it will come down to NDP-Liberal, and it could go either way.
21/12/02 Peter Cassidy
Email: peterjcassidy@yahoo.com
Now that Dave has announced he will not run again,(starting to run for Mayor) it may seem this race is too close to call. Yet a few thing to consider. The NDP will put major resources into holding on to this riding and may no mistake, the NDP does have major resources when it chooses to concentrate them. Expect to see some of the best organizers in the province concentrated here, backed up by hundreds of experienced canvassers from across Hamilton-Niagara, one of the NDP bastions in the country.Expect to see a highly sophisticaed sign campaign. Exepct to see a bright, attractive popular candidate named Andrea wins the hearts and minds of the voters. Expect to see local liberals and conservatives throwing away resources here they could better use elsewhere. The NDP will be leading in this riding from the day the writ is dropped until the last ballot is counted.
18/12/02 Michael W Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Christopherson has decided not to seek a 4th term as MPP. There will now be immense pressure on city council person Andrea Horwath to run in his place. Horwath's Ward 2 overlaps with part of the riding and she did run in 1997 coming in second against Stan keyes. However, the wins by Christopherson are personal victories not related to party strength in the riding. It is very unlikley Horwath has the same degree of personal support in the riding. Christopherson has done the best for himself and the city of Hamilton. Thus, this riding is now up for grabs by the party which runs the best candidate. IMHO Horwath will not run and will work with Mayor Christopherson in the future.
05/12/02 SM
The NDP will hold onto all of their seats, thanks in no small part to the Hydro campaign. They've gone from doomsday-prophecising loonies to having been right all along in less than a year, and the people of Hamilton are not about to forget this, and vote against the party they've been consistently electing provincially. If anything, Christopherson's bid for Mayor would help the NDP, I believe.
29/11/02 Michael Ensley
The Liberals in Hamilton West are having trouble finding a star to run. D'Amico is not going to run this time. The NDP will increase their plurality with Horwath taking the seat. The current MMP will win the Mayor's position defeating Wade
27/11/02 Michael Ensley
The current sitting MPP has about decided to run for Mayor. The law is being changed this January to allow for current office holders to run for Mayor. So, he can now remain a MPP and campaign for the Major's position after January 1. So, I suspect he will hold his seat and still campaign in 2003 for the office of Mayor. Thus, timing is important. However, even if he decided not to contest the seat in the next provincial election the NDP with a high profile candidate in the riding and with the Mayor's race taking so much attention will hold the seat with an increased plurality. The 18% NFP strength in the polls indicates a recovery of traditional NDP support which will impact this riding.
18/11/02 robert e
The New Democrats will throw lots of resources into this riding to keep it orange - especially if Christopherson runs for Mayor instead of MPP. It is urgent for the NDP to hold onto this riding. Hydro campaign has solidified support and the ND's are the only party consistently up in the polls.
02/11/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
There is no doubt a Morrow run would threaten the NDP hold on this seat. However, if D'Amico runs either the present MPP or Horwath can keep this seat NDP. Horwath's ward which she won since her last defeat largely overlaps with Hamilton West. She is popular in Ward 2 and she can hold the seat against D'Amico.
26/10/02 AL
The NDP NEED this seat and will commit their resources accordingly! If Chirstopherson stays this is an NDP win! I dont think Morrow will run for the Liberal Nomination since he wants t run for mayor again in 2 years! This willl be an NDP hold!
25/10/02 IanB
Close. Although Christopherson has done a pretty good job as MPP, rumours of his running for mayor persist. Rumours also persist that former mayor Bob Morrow (who is still locally popular) is quietly seeking the Liberal nomination. Despite Horwath's candidacy, she has run before in this riding federally and lost. And Hamilton is a pretty strong Liberal town these days -- MP Stan Keyes has been elected with over 50% of the vote in the last three federal elections, while Christopherson barely eked out wins in 1995 and 1999. If Christopherson vs. D'Amico, Christopherson will win. If Christopherson vs. Morrow, it will be close. If Christopherson leaves, the riding will go Liberal.
23/10/02 Michael W Ensley
Email: menaley@yahoo.com
If Christopherson does stand down to run in the Mayor's race the NDP could keep the seat if Andrea Horwath runs. Horwath is a city councillor for ward 2 in the downtown. There's a significant geographical overlap between the lower part of the riding and her ward. The liberals are planning to run Frank D'Amico who lost last time. If Horwath runs the NDP could hold this seat.
21/10/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The NDP can hold this IF the current member decides to run. However, at this time he is considering a run for the Mayor's job in Hamilton. If he leaves the seat will be lost to the NDP

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