Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington

Last Update:
4:49 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:48 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Leona Dombrowsky
Progressive Conservative:
Barry Gordon
New Democratic Party:
Ross Sutherland
Green Party:

Leona Dombrowsky

Federal MP:
Larry McCormick

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction 7

20395 46.74%

18553 42.52%

3008 6.89%

576 1.32%

524 1.2%

382 0.88%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality3 769
Larry McCormick
16 996 39%
Sean McAdam
13 227 30.4%
Daryl Kramp
10 231 23.5%
Tom O'Neill
2 200 5%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation62.50%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born93.30%
Ontario Born85.15%
Visible Minority0.78%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$120131

College/Trade School22585

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01/10/03 Sparky
Just this evening I was asking a staunch conservative, Who do you think is going to get in tomorrow? Her reply was, "The one who has been doing her job at Queens Park and at home in her riding. I speak from experience she quoted I tried for several weeks to get a birth certificate for my son.It was a federal matter, she did not shrug me off. I had it in 2 days after contacting Leona. I was very impressed . To her credit she has complimented herself with fantastic staff. I wish her all well because she has earned her seat.This from a conservative. Unheard of in these thar hills.
29/09/03 r.r.
This has been predicted to be a 5,000 plurality, by rights it should be closer to 10,000 as major papers predict the sitting member Dombrowsky deserves a cabinet shot. However, old habits die hard and the old crowd will make it just 7,500 plurality. The Conservative is not connecting. The NDP to be left without a Rae of hope, they would need Elmer Glue to reach 15%.
24/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Given that Dalton didn't screw things up in yesterday's debate, HFLA will almost certainly stay Liberal. Leona Dombrowsky has been a good representative, and will give the riding a strong voice on the government side.
23/09/03 Madoc Township
Barry Gordon did not bother to attend the All-Candidates meeting at the High School in Madoc. That says it all about his chances in this riding. I suspect that Leona Dombrowski will win, as part of the overall trend to the Liberals across the Province. Too bad. Ross Sutherland of the NDP had the most coherent ideas on how this Province should be governed.
23/09/03 Mr. Plow
Should the Liberals hold on to their lead and win the election, Leona Dombrowsky is a shoe-in for the provincial cabinet. Her campaign team is using this bit of information to make sure Leona wins her riding by a bigger gap than she did in the 1999 election. Barry Gordon and the Conservatives are nowhere to be found and may have a problem beating out Ross Sutherland and the New Democrats for third place.
11/09/03 Fiddle Head
Since I'm new to this site, I'm not sure how you go about deciding what ridings are going to be close and which are not. I have to say that Leona Dombrowsky is very safe for the Grits in this region. If Leona could win in 1999, there's no chance in heck she'll be losing this time to Barry Gordon. Gordon could walk down the street on fire and people wouldn't notice him. I think Leona will win by 5000 votes.
22/07/03 Spindoctor Barbie
Email: barbie@matel-toys.com
Nobody throws mud like Panther and the Conservatives do and he knows it. Leona doesn't need to get in the gutter with Barry Gordon because she knows she's got this election won already. Even Panther can't bring himself to say anything good about the Conservative candidate in this riding with the long name. When Harry Danford blew the 1999 race with Leona, he gave her a chance to keep this riding for a long, long time.
19/07/03 jackson
I must disagree with the last person who posted saying that Leona has been a "dismal failure". Nothing could be further from the truth. Her work on local environmental concerns and water-taking permits has been outstanding. She has worked hard and has been seen all around the riding over the last 4 years. You only need to look to the recent column by Christina Blizzard (The Toronto Sun's standard bearer for the PCs) who mentioned Leona as an impressive first-termer and Cabinet material. Look for Leona's hard work to have paid off over the past 4 years -- voters in HFLA would be wise to re-elect her to a second term.
19/07/03 Paint My Fence
I don't know anything about gutter politics and I'm not a Liberal. I do know that Leona Dombrowsky is going to win her riding big. Barry Gordon is just not in the same league as Leona who built a powerful campaign team in 1999 that's even bigger and better for 2003. Leona will take this election by at least 5000 votes.
18/07/03 Andrew Walton
Email: andrewpw@canada.com
If the Tories come up a few points across the province, this riding should be Barry Gordon's. His fight against the Richmond Landfill has pushed Dombrowsky to the sidelines on the issue. Her attacks are looking bitter and may shatter her image to her constituents. But most importantly, the Tory platform (anti-gun registry, more funding for rural schools, and doctors) speaks to rural ridings far better than the Liberals (pro-gun registry, scrap equal funding for rural students).
15/07/03 Panther
Why is it everytime the Liberal posters struggle to find a qualified argument against a Tory they turn to gutter politics? Calling someone an adulter and a racist are pretty strong accusations and it would be in Ms Plinker's best interest to back them up with some facts, otherwise she looks pretty pathetic. Speaking of the facts, lets look at some. Fact one: Gordon is very popular throughout the riding, not only because of his political background, but because he is one of those people that EVERYONE knows. Fact two: Gordon is working and campaigning hard throughout the riding already. Fact three: he has already brought a number of cabinet ministers and the premier into the riding, a testament to how much the Tories want this man in their government. Fact four: Leona has been a dismal failure during her one term. She has produced virtually nothing for the people of this riding. It will be close but I predict Gordon will win this riding in a squeaker.
13/05/03 Grizz
The Liberals have a hard working candidate that won last time on her hard work and dedication. This will ensure that she wins this riding again, plus the help she'll have now that the Liberals are up in the polls.
04/05/03 ME
I think if Avril Lavigne runs, she would do it for the federal Liberals. Didn't you see the pictures of her making funny faces in the Prime Minister's Office? She would be more interesting than Larry for sure...
02/05/03 Craig
Any Liberal gains from the Tories in 1999 are safe with the fast-declining Tory fortunes and the lack of an NDP base here. Maybe if Avril Lavigne (she lives in this riding) ran for the Tories, they'd have a chance...but that isn't going to happen, so the Liberals will easily hang on here. Predicted results: LIB 52%, PC 32%, NDP 8%, Green 3%.
26/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Leona Dombrowsky to win Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington. In order to have a horse race you need two horses. The LIBs have a strong one in Leona. The PC's can't seem to find anyone to line up and run against Dombrowsky. Leona will take this race by default. This is an easy bet. Take it.
24/03/03 Jill
This riding will go either Liberal or Conservative. As a general rule, voters in this area are not as concerned with provincial-level actions - rural Ontarians have long felt forgotten in terms of representation at a higher level. As a result, voters look for members that will be visible and available in the community. What is more, Dombrowsky has established herself as a go-getter within the community, and many feel that there is a significant likelihood that she could become more powerful within the provincial Liberal system - a definite bonus over older, conservatively minded and less motivated folks. This riding has been destroyed financially and otherwise by government mismanagement, and many are disillusioned...voter turn-out has been a serious problem in the past. That said, many in the more rural areas of the riding are thrilled that Dombrowsky is out and about in the community. Barry Gordon who? The Tories still haven't nominated a candidate. He doesn't stand a chance.
23/03/03 Allan Spenker
Leona will be reelected because she speaks for the people of her riding in Toronto, and has the respect of her caucus members in Toronto. It's a VAST Improvement over those old fuddy duddys who are Mayors or Reeves, by the time they are Mayors and Reeves they should go retire. People want ACTIVE members, not ready for the retirement home. PC's would be wise to elect younger , more active candidates and successful business people, opposed to the old fossils. That's why Liberals will rewin this one. Harry Danford forgot where he came from last time, arrogant, and too important to remember the people who got him elected, well it was the people who got him elected the first time, who kicked him out the last time.
26/02/03 El Predicto
Nobody gave Leona a chance here last time but she surprised us all and won the seat for the Liberals. She won because she outworked the Tories plain and simple, Leona won it the old fashioned way. I have a feeling that Leona is going to win this seat again through hard work and a good local campaign. There are still ridings in this province where a strong local candidate can win on their own. This is one of them. Mark this one down for the Liberals.
13/02/03 B. Freeman
Email: daCanadian@Canada.com
In a riding which underwent major reconfiguration the incumbent PC was largely unknown in much of the constituency and Dombrowsky won in 1999 on spunk and smoke and mirrors -- and the fact she took many months to go door-to-door in the parts of the riding new to PC Harry Danford. This tipped the scales in her favour. However, she has since come off as aloof, arrogant and "above" her constituents, pontificating rather than listening. People have tired of her sass and seen few of her campaign promises reflected in her actions. Well-known former area Reeve Barry Gordon is widely expected to win the PC nomination this go-round and take this one back for the Tories.
03/02/03 PMK
Dombrowsky snuck in thanks in large part to a bitterly divisive PC nomination battle last time out. With a strong candidate, potentially former Reeve Barry Gordon, this is a prime candidate for the Tories to retake.
14/01/03 A. Hudson
In this riding,the Liberal Association membership outnumbered the Conservative Association membership during the Vote-For-The-Next-Premier event last March. That doesn't bode well for the PCs. Also, no Conservative candidate has been nominated yet, and the rumour mills have had a number of "maybes" back out of the running after evaluating the chance of a PC win. A seat that will return to the Conservative fold? Doesn't look that way. If the current Liberal MPP works hard during the next campaign, this seat will stay Liberal.
19/12/02 Marto
Leona is done. She has not voted for her constituents - she has only done what she is told by the her "leader". Voting against the double hatter bill and voting against a bill that will prevent the family farm to unionize will finish off. If the Tories can expose her voting habits in Toronto she will have to move to Toronto to have a chance of getting re-elected.
12/12/02 S. Webb
Well... yesterday, Dombrowsky voted against "Double Hatters", where professional firefighters double as volunteer firefighters in their home towns. This will not be forgotten on election day.
16/11/02 S. Webb
Could be very close, but at this point, it should go Tory. It has all the earmarks of a Tory stronghold but went Grit last time due to strategic voting in Napanee. Like many rural ridings, the city can out vote the country and that is what happend last time. If the PC's can hold their own in Napanee they should re-take the riding. Same goes for Prince Edward-Hastings and Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburgh.
13/11/02 Andrew Cox
Too close to call. Reasons. 1) Dombrowsky was a surprising win in 1999. 2) A little background. This riding is legendary in Ontario history as the sight of "the Battle of Hastings" in 1936. Liberal Premier Mitch Hepburn staked his plan to extend funding to Catholic education on the result of a by-election held when a Liberal MPP died. The Conservatives used the ultra-Protestant Orange Lodge to rev up anti-Catholic bigotry, setting up more than 50 Orange Lodge meetings in the riding and distributing 16,000 anti-Catholic Orange pamphlets. A religious war ensued. Barns were burned. Mayhem reined. The election's crescendo was a speech by Tory campaign manager (and later Premier) George Drew in which he called French-Canadians "a defeated race. The Tories won. In what was widely seen as a victory for Protestantism and the Orange Order, Hepburn withdrew his bill to fund Catholic education. (And people think Canadian history is boring.) The anti-Catholic sentiment this election stired still rattles around these parts. 3) While Dombrowsky - the former head of the Catholic School Board - is a hard working constituency MPP who is moving up the ranks of the Liberal Party, history makes this an uphill battle. 4) The Tories haven't nominated yet here, a large, rural riding where an early nomination would be a major boon. That speaks to disorganization or lack of interest. 5) This is another riding where a Family Coalition candidate could see a vote jump as social conservatives leave the Eves-led PC Party. 6) The lack of a local media market or urban centre means the election must be fought door-to-door. Whoever works harder will win.
10/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
One of the sweetest Grit victories of 1999; in what should have been a hopeless cause for the Liberals (much of the riding consists of where they lost their only 1995 deposit), Dombrowsky brilliantly pole-vaulted her way into Queen's Park, vanquishing the "safe" Harry Danford. Thus, if there's a tempting Tory takeback target anywhere, it's this one...

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