Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Mississauga Centre

Last Update:
3:18 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:30 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Harinder Takhar
Progressive Conservative:
Rob Sampson
New Democratic Party:
Mike Miller
Green Party:
Jeffrey S Smith

Rob Sampson

Federal MP:
Carolyn Parrish

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

18688 51.63%

14572 40.26%

1820 5.03%

1117 3.09%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality17 738
Carolyn Parrish
24 381 64.1%
Harry Dhaliwal
6 643 17.5%
Nina Tangri
5 077 13.4%
Gail McCabe
1 404 3.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation71.10%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born50.36%
Ontario Born42.85%
Visible Minority40.72%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$233730

College/Trade School23395

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30/09/03 doug h
Fortunately for the PC's Takhar is a complete unknown except for his signs which are all over the place. Unfortunately for him, winning a riding is more than plastering the neighbourhood with signs. If the Liberals had fielded a more prominent candidate, they could have taken this riding but miss centre constituents are smart enough not to elect some guy who simply wants another job to go with the several he has already.
30/09/03 Bar Habour
I can see Carl Difara losing Mississauga East because he's just not very good, but if anyone in the Conservatives keeps his job it's going to be Rob Sampson. Sampson will get a lot of help from a below average Liberal candidate in Harindar Takhar who is still unknown in Mississauga Centre. Sampson has a personal appeal that other Conservatives in Mississauga don't. Even the Liberal campaign seems to stay away from attacking Sampson personally and has gone after the government instead. The Tories will probably hold on to about 25 seats on election day and Mississauga Centre will be 1 of those 25. It might have been different if the Liberals had run someone else but we'll never really know will we.
29/09/03 Fearless Forecaster
Mississauga Centre has traditionally been a bell-weather riding. While the Liberal candidate Takhar may not be as well known as the incumbent Sampson, I think the Liberal swee will push Takhar in. In our neighbourhood, we see nothing but red Takhar signs. Where are the Tories? Are they too complacent?
28/09/03 Robert
I do not see how Rob Sampson can hold on to this seat. His campaign in our neighbourhood is almost non-existent. Tory blue dominated our subdivision in 95 and 99. This time even previous Tory supporter's want change. I see a Liberal victory Oct. 2nd.
28/09/03 TM
This is not a tory riding. This is a bell weather riding that swings with the majority. Miss. Centre will go Liberal along with the rest of the 905 belt. The tory vote is falling apart.
28/09/03 Jahan
Mississauga Centre has been a solid PC riding in the past, but as the demographics of this region change, so will voting. Although Sampson has an advantage being the incumbent, I think this vote will be closer as the Liberals are predicted to win provincially.
26/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
This is one of the most vunerable 905 seats. I am amazed by the amount of Tory support on this website. Anyway, considering the polls are showing that the Liberals are LEADING in 905 they have got to win (at least): Bramalea-Gore, Vaughan-King-Aurora, Thornhill and 3 of the 4 Mississagua ridings and this riding ain't running Margaret Marland.
25/09/03 Woody
It's interesting to see all the new Tory signs mushrooming in this area - I think Tories were upset at seeing Liberal red. I heard Takhar at Credit Valley Hospital last night and was amazed at how poor a speaker he was - deer in the headlights look, playing at being a politician. Tories voted big-time last time, but I thought they'd stay home this time. Sampson seems to be rallying support. If they vote, PC's will hold onto this seat.
12/09/03 Frozen Toast
The Liberals I talk to tell me that they're moving campaign workers from Mississauga Centre to Mississauga East and the Peter Fonseca campaign. Local Liberals think they have a much better chance of knocking off Carl Difaria than Rob Sampson. They're right. Harinder Takhar has not expanded his base of support to the point where he's any threat to Sampson.
10/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
This was one of the predicted Liberal pickups the last time, and Sampson took a majority of the vote. Again, like most 905 ridings, the Tory platform reasonates here the strongest, and there is no NDP support to collapse. If what other posters are saying is true, that Winters would have been the stronger Liberal candidate, then if anything, Sampson should win by the same or even bigger margin this time around. The Grits should be almost shut out of the 905/GTA belt surrounding Toronto.
18/07/03 Hi Tech
Here's three letters that Dr. Kular doesn't like to hear. They're OMA. You'll be hearing more about this during the campaign. Rob Sampson is going to be re-elected and he should be. He's the better man.
15/07/03 Irene Edwards
Email: ie99@rogers.com
I believe that Sampson will win because he is a more honest and gracious man in business. Alot of people out there know some grave truths about Harindar's Business Practices - namely in how he treats his employees - and eventually it will hurt him; like now ...in this election. Larry Ellison of Oracle is a pussy cat compared to Mr. Takhar.
12/07/03 Hop on Pop
Rob Sampson is getting a lot more attention these days as he's taking the lead on the auto insurance file. You can't buy the kind of coverage Sampson is getting and it makes me more convinced than ever that Harinder Takhar is not going to win this time. He's just not well known enough in Mississauga to beat Sampson.
04/07/03 Hotdog
The Liberals made a mistake not running George Winter again this time. Winter could have built on the support he had last time while Takhar had to start from nothing. This gives Rob Sampson more than enough of an advantage that he'll win it.
17/06/03 Mambo King
Email: Everybody Mambo!
The Tory platform is aimed right at ridings like Mississauga Centre. Voters here like the idea of being able to deduct part of the interest on their mortgage payments from their taxes. Seniors in Mississauga tend to own their own homes and like the idea of a property tax cut that's coming up this summer. Don't forget all that money for improved GO service. That will make a lot of voters happy. The Tories have just too much in the way of policy to lose this riding. It didn't help the Liberal cause to have Harinder Takhar as their candidate either. Rob Sampson will be the one smiling on election night.
22/05/03 Hammer
Rob Sampson is in no danger of losing his riding to the Liberals. Mississauga is still the Tory heartland and that hasn't changed enough to make a difference. The Liberals tried but couldn't come up with a big name candidate so they gave up and let Harinder have the nomination. Sampson will win by 9,000 votes.
28/04/03 Kevin
There is slight possibility that this riding may go to the Green Party. Sampson was kicked out of the cabinet not once but twice. He is not close to Eves and Dafaria is personal friend of Eves. Sampson does not even know what he wants. He is very frustrated and is looking for a job. He had indicated to his friends that he had no desire to run. Beacause he cannot find a suitable job he has decided to run. Rockie new candidate from any party has a great chance to win this riding. Green party has a excellent chance to win this riding.
12/04/03 El Predicto
Of the three current Tory members in Mississauga, Rob Sampson is without a doubt the strongest. Sampson has the high profile and a very good campaign team on the ground in the riding. Harinder will have a lot of explaining to do about his record at the school board. That's going to hurt his campaign. Sampson will hold on to his riding.
07/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
"Damn Tories, I hate those bastards"? Well, actually, there isn't necessarily that much trickle-down/trickle up between the provincial and federal Liberals--and besides, in this racially/ethnically polyglot dead centre of Misty Sog, Carolyn Parrish's comments might as well be a "give'em hell" plus. A lot depends on what Rob Sampson might decide; but it's still, with BGMS, Peel Region's most likely Liberal-shifter.
13/02/03 John
Email: 123go@hotmail.com
Sorry to hurt my liberal friends feelings (they're a touchy bunch). If you think Takhar did a good job handling the Peel Board finances, how do you explain getting over $50 million INCREASE in their Operations budget yet could not balance the budget if their life depended on it. Hopefully they don't have to organize a two car funeral!?!? Takhar is no magician when it comes to finance and spending taxpayers dollars wisely. Sampson's financial credentials are far better
30/01/03 JJ
Over questions around Takhar's nomination, a serious Independent Liberal candidacy is threatened. En garde!
14/01/03 Laurie
Rob Sampson, as Minister of Privatization, was responsible for the largest privatization project in Canada - HWY 407. Originally funded by the taxpayer, this HWY was supposed to lighten some of the traffic congestion in the GTA. With six toll increases, it has become a huge rip-off for the consumer, and similar to other Rob Sampson privatization schemes, (Hydro and Correctional Facilities), is doomed to create huge voter backlash for the Tories. On the other hand, Liberal candidate, Harinder Takhar's managerial and accounting strengths have been proven repeatedly. He has managed to keep the bottom line clearly in site, while leading and supporting the growing community needs of such critical facilities as the Credit Valley Hospital, the Peel District School Board and the United Way of Peel.
11/01/03 Steve
Email: csi35@excite.com
Mississauga Centre will go liberal this time because liberal's have a very very strong candidate because a) well known in community b) great community worker, dedicated and committed c)ethnic star candidate d) successful business man e) very organized with a strong team . Liberals will win this riding for sure!
31/12/02 sshaw
The situation of Mississauga Centre is very different this time around. Harinder Takhar is a very strong candidate. He is well known in the community. He served as a Chair of the United Way of Peel at a very diffcult time and currently serves as a Vice Chair of the Credit valley Hospital. He is a very respected executive of the Peel District School Board. He enjoys enormous amount of respect in the ethnic community. He knows this community well and has been actively involved various community fund raising initatives. With his business background he will certainly be an attraction to the business community as well. Even if Sampson decided to run liberals will win this seat for sure. Harinder Takhar is among one of the very strong candidates that Liberals have so far nominated in the 905 area. Conservatives are for a big surprise in this riding.
16/11/02 Amanda
Rob Sampson will win this riding again. He is a high profile backbencher that has had a lot of positive media attention lately regarding the Private Member's Bills that he has introduced, as well as bridging a gap between the private sector and government during the recent round of auto insurance consultations that the government held. He is a very intelligent M.P.P. and will have no problem winning here.
07/11/02 Andrew Cox
Reasons: 1) I disagree with Bryan about the candidates for the Liberals. Harinder Takhar is a stronger candidate that Winters, who got a bad rap as not a hard worker. 2) The demographics of the riding are rapidly shifting away from lily white to a multicultural tapestry more prone to vote Grit. 3) Strong rumours Sampson won't run again after being removed from cabinet by Eves. 4) This is a reasonably close margin for a 905 seat, so its one in which the Liberals will concentrate resources. 5) Until the Sampson rumours are sorted out and we see the PC candidate nominated, nobody can tell what this riding will do.
28/10/02 Andy
Email: andyk8123@hotmail.com
Is Rob Sampson quitting politics? I think I read in the Star that he is considering quitting before the election, along with John Snobelen and Frank Klees. If he does then it could be a PC/Liberal battle that will be close since the NDP has no chance in hell of winning here in Suburbia.
21/10/02 Bryan
Email: 0bgc@qlink.queensu.ca
Had the Liberals nominated George Winter here this time, they would have been competitive. Winter was a good candidate last time around. The controversy surrounding the nomination this time around will play right into the PC's hands. Sampson is a much more public figure this time around and should win this seat fairly easily.

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