Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
4:45 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
3:17 PM 01/10/2003

Political Profile:

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Chris Topple
Progressive Conservative:
Jerry Ouellette
New Democratic Party:
Sid Ryan
Green Party:
Karen Tweedle
Freedom Party:
Paul McKeever

Jerry Ouellette

Federal MP:
Ivan Grose

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

18915 46.75%

11740 29.02%

9154 22.62%

651 1.61%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality5 316
Ivan Grose
16 179 42.9%
Barry Bussey
10 863 28.8%
Bruce L. Wright
5 675 15.1%
Bruce Rogers
4 203 11.1%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation64.70%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born83.44%
Ontario Born72.94%
Visible Minority4.83%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$141060

College/Trade School26810

Authorized by the CFO for the Oshawa Provincial Freedom Party Association
01/10/03 Eric
Contrary to comments that Smith is a parachute candidate, she and her family have deep roots here that show. And her ability to speak French will regain the local Francophone vote for the Liberals. They had swung over to Harris, not out of political conviction but convenience - he was the premier. McDonald has done a lot of hard work and is probably deserving of re-election, but in the face of an uninspired campaign by O'Connor and a rising Liberal tide, I give this close one to Smith.
01/10/03 GB
Email: garth_7ca@yahoo.com
This seat should be very difficult to call. The PC's won last time because of the vote split. That means the NDP vote is more solid here than it is in most other ridings (less strategic voting). However, that cuts both ways in that the sharp increase in NDP vote in recent polls doesn't translate into a 35-50% increase over last time, but rather something smaller. The PC vote can be assumed to go down about 10% but that would still mean they have a chance to win. This means the strategic voting option might appeal to some of the NDP'ers again this election. I suspect however that they will view the provincial polls as evidence they don't have to worry about a Tory government so they will vote with their hearts this time. I would guess a narrow NDP win.
01/10/03 lrs
Ryan got quasi endorsemnt from SUN today-good for getting auto workers to follow union leadership-but could be one of few three way races in Province- as late as 1990- we used to have 15-20 of these races each election-- I would think this is most important seat for NDP- they are doing lousy in Windsor by all accounts- so have to prove they can take one new urban working class seat outside of Toronto-if NDP loses- then this should be seen as only a sign of weakness of Hampton's leadership- if he started to attack Liberals in second week- then perhaps we would be looking at 20 NDP seats
01/10/03 Judi Bud
Chris Topple is not as weak as the NDP would like to think he is. Topple has run before and has some name recognition. Oh and one other thing. Topple is a Liberal in an election where his party is going to form a government. Topple is going to take a lot of votes from Syd Ryan and might even finish second. Jerry Oullette is going to be the candidate who benefits from the Liberals and the NDP fighting it out and quietly hangs on to most of his traditional support. That will be just enough for this riding to stay with the Tories. I'm willing to say that Ryan finishes third.
01/10/03 Darcy
Email: darcyhiggins@canada.com
Ryan win - Hampton has visited many a time with lots of support. Oulette doesn't seem to have much steam & Environment Voters working in this riding for Ryan.
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
I distinctly remember people on this forum calling Oulette an 'accidental Tory MPP' four years ago and he won this seat with a near majority of the vote. The naysayers will be wrong this time around, too, thanks in part to McGuinty, who will boost Topple enough to keep Ryan down. Durham will be solid Tory blue no matter what happens province wide.
29/09/03 905er
NDP gain. Topple is weak, to say the least, and the Tories are in a free fall. Ryan has run a strong campaign and should pull it out with a strategic vote working in the opposite direction as elsewhere. Only seat to break the Tory hold of Durham unless a massive upset happens in Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge (which will happen if the Liberals cross 65 seats).
28/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
A classic three-way race. Any of them could emerge victorious. Topple because of the red wave, Ryan because he is Sid Ryan and Oueltte because of the vote split. If Sid Ryan wasn't running, Chris Topple would win for sure but alas Sid Ryan is running. And I think he'll squeak out a victory for the following reasons: A) Tory support in 905 is in free-fall. Down 15% from last time. That leaves Ouelette at 32%. While most cabinet ministers experience an upward swing, Ouelette's extreme obession with guns has prevented Oshawa voters (my uncle is one) from saying "Ah! Isn't he representing us well." B) There is also the problem of the Freedom Party. Normally this wouldn't matter but in such a close race it might. C) After being humiliated in '99, Ryan is working much harder this time. The fact that he lives in a neighbouring riding helps. "Oshawa first" sounds more realistic coming from him than "Scarborough Centre first". D) The NDP won't win many ridings on e-day. They will put their ground crew into the ones they can. E) The Liberals really don't care about this one. They'd rather put their Durham crew into defeating Ecker and Flaherty (and I think they will). F) I visited this riding today, starting in the South and going North. I must admit I have no idea who will win based on signs as they are inconsistent depending on where one is in the riding so we must look at this riding from other vantage points. Ryan=33%/Ouelette=32%/Topple=31%/McKeever=3%/Green=1%.
28/09/03 WY
Unlike others who seem to know this riding, I live here and I have followed the election. This is a dogfight, but not PC and NDP but Liberal and PC. Sid Ryan may take just enough vote to keep this riding PC but it could also go Liberal. If Topple runs 10% behind his party, he still wins. Prediction. Liberal 36% PC 32% NDP 29% others 3% With a possible change of 5%,this could still go down to the wire.
27/09/03 Bernie
Nick: There is no such occupation as "autoworker". No official stats will tell you how much "autoworkers" make as compared to physicians, airline pilots, electrical engineers, university professors, registered nurses, or taxi drivers. Automobile production is an industry, not an occupation. I take it your definition doesn't include "professionals" in the industry, like managers and engineers, who make the most and are generally anti-NDP, for obvious reasons. At the next level down are the "elite" working class occupations, the highly-skilled folks like electricians and tool and die makers, as well as first-line supervisors (aka: "foremen"). They generally do make quite high incomes, probably average around $60K. Below them are assemblers, who make far less per year. The assemblers outnumber the skilled tradepeople and foremen probably about 4:1, so it's a little hard to believe that "autoworkers" make what you suggest, you're really talking about the very top of the payscale. Yet it is because of unions that the skilled tradespeople make what they make. Given the anti-union record of Harris/Eves (60-hour week, the allowing of scabs) it's hard to believe that the skilled tradespeople and the assemblers below them would be as Tory-leaning as you think. Oshawa is a strong union town, and I believe Sid Ryan will prevail in this election.
26/09/03 Darcy
Email: darcyhiggins@canada.com
Liberals going up, NDP going up - apparently. With a strong candidate getting grassroots union support and strategic voting going to him, should be a NDP gain here. Environment Voters is also campaigning here which should be noted - for Sid.
25/09/03 WD
McKeever's effect is vastly overstated by Blizzard who is a). A Tory apologist and B). Not from this riding. While the Green Party IS running a weak candidate here (I rescind my comment below) they have a much greater cross-province presence than Freedom, so the local candidate is off-set by the higher Q rating of the party. Bottom line: Freedom and the Greens run at 1 and 2% respectively in this riding, so not enough to affect the outcome. Ouellette up the middle in a squeaker, still, by virtue of the fact that there are a lot of people in central 'Schwa who wouldn't vote Dipper if you threatened to light them on fire, splitting the anti-Tory vote. The Tories won't lose every seat, folks, but it's going to be darn close in seats like this one.
25/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
This is a truly weird riding, and perhaps the only place in the province where the Liberal surge will actually *benefit* the NDP. Regardless of local issues or local personalities, the Liberals seem poised to take a fair number of votes away from the Tories. This works to Ryan's benefit. A year ago, I wouldn't have guessed that the NDP had a prayer of taking back Oshawa -- now, Ryan could prove that supposition wrong.
25/09/03 kd
It is E minus 7 and I see where Howie is ending his day at an Oshawa event. There is nothing like the last week of a campaign to help focus priorities. The push into Oshawa means that the party's internal polls shows that it is either in their grasp, or they want to put a lock on a winner.
24/09/03 Hawkeye
The last few days have been very interesting at the candidates debates in Oshawa, and in the papers. The local paper (This Week, owned by the Toronto Star) has upped its coverage of the PCs, NDP, and Liberals (not a lot of room in its pages to discuss the existence of the other candidates, with the possible exception of McKeever in today's edition). Ryan has generally taken the whoop-up-the-crowd approach...made easier by the fact that he has planted an NDP cheerleading team at various points within each debate's audience. For those who like socialism, he gives a truly heart-felt and inspiring speech: he believes in what he says. Topple sounds a bit over-rehearsed: sort of like being talked *at* by an infomercial, but he is likely to pull a lot of the soft, red-Tories to his camp sheerly due to the expected success of McGuinty. Ouellette has been attacked by several constituents. Sometimes he has weathered the attacks well, but things went badly for him at McLaughlin last night when a cottager (well dressed and clearly monied) blasted him essentially for expropriating his cottage with Parks legislation: the guy accused Ouellette of lying, and marched out saying so. It looked very, very bad on the incumbent. Christina Blizzard summed up McKeever pretty well in last Friday's Toronto Sun: while Ryan is attacking Ouellette from the left, McKeever is an Oshawa counterpart to Whitby's "common sense revolution" Flaherty, "torpedoing" Ouellette from the right. If word spreads quickly enough (doubtful, given there are only 8 days left), McKeever could do serious damage to Ouellette: what Ryan does for those who like socialism, McKeever does for those who oppose tax and spend governments. Tick tock. Finally, the Greens: dead in the water in Oshawa. Tweedle admitted that she got "thrown into this" at an all candidates debate: greens have tried to grow too quickly, and it shows (dramatically).
22/09/03 Nick
Email: spamgoeshere@cogeco.ca
Times have changed. While the NDP have usually been associated with unions and the like the CAW is nothing at all the kind of people that the NDP is trying to represent. Auto workers make $60,000-$80,000 a year and are in the highest tax bracket. While Syd may have a big campaign that looks good in the media I have a very hard time believing that the over-taxed auto workers in Oshawa are going to elect a socialist member to the legislature who is going to further tax them into the ground. Liberals or Tory's in Oshawa are one thing, but this is not going to be an NDP riding. I see the incumbant getting elected here.
22/09/03 M.S. from Durham
This M.S. works in the riding and I see more Oullette signs in front of the local gun/sporting goods store than in the rest of the riding put together. Oullette seems popular with the hunting and gun lobby but it seems not any one else - he is regarded as a do nothing MPP and a weak minister. He is being outsigned by Ryan even in the more affluent North of the riding. The gun lobby is not nearly enough to save Jerry, when Eves numbers are in the mid 30's and dropping. Ryan's name recognition is more than carrying him here.
22/09/03 Hot Shot
Syd Ryan's CUPE friends are working overtime (and getting time and a half for it) filling this website with dreams about Ryan winning Oshawa when his party is going down the drain. Oshawa is no different than the rest of the eastern section of the 905 belt. Lots of commuters and people in big houses who supported the Tories in the past and will again. I don't know how many times people have point this out but I'll do it again, the CAW workers will NOT be voting for Ryan and the NDP. These guys make a lot of money and don't want to pay any more in taxes. Ryan is living in the 70's if he thinks he'll get any support from the auto workers. The Liberals don't really matter in Oshawa that means the soft Liberal vote will go to Ouellette. This riding is solid Tory and that's the truth. Ryan will finish third.
20/09/03 M.S.
I'll admit, I don't know much about the 'shwa and I don't live there. But I was talking to a friend of mine about the election the other day, and he mentioned that if there's one riding for the NDP to pick up, this is it. Apparently the Ryan's signs are everywhere. And with the PCs sinking and the Liberals running the same lacklustre candidate, this is the perfect storm for the NDP.
20/09/03 The Noodler
Sid Ryan knows something about running campaigns. One thing he knows is that you win on local issues. Ryan's "Oshawa First" campaign is working and winning. His signs are everywhere, his campaign is well organized and well-staffed. He is out in the riding campaigning hard. And he understands the local issues. Oulette's team is riding high on complacency and after eight years shows it knows nothing about local Oshawa issues. And PS, as for William De Bruin's comment that Karen Tweedle is a "smart" candidate that will expand Green's base in Oshawa, forget it! She knows nothing about the issues and doesn't appear to have the wherewithal to do her homework. She will hurt the GPO in Oshawa for years to come.
20/09/03 Grant S.
Jerry Oulette doesn't seems to know his seat is up for grabs - maybe he doesn't know where Oshawa is! If Paul McKeever gets to enough doors, he will steal a lot of Tory-Reform votes: he's smart, he talks a smooth right wing game, he sounds good for those that like the old Reform crap. Chris Topple isn't a bad candidate - probably stronger than Sid would like. Fortunately the Greens have stuck a know-nothing in the riding - she is not likely to pull any serious vote from the NDP - at least not anyone who hears her babble. Saw her at an all-candidates meeting the other night and she barely knew where she was. An embarrassment to what should be a serious party.
19/09/03 Spice Girl
Let's settle one issue right off the bat. The NDP are stuck at 12 per cent and are going nowhere in this election. That means Syd Ryan will end up in third place just like he did in Scarborough Centre in 1999. Howard Hampton's tour looks like it's run out of public power and looks like the end of the road. Chris Topple will increase his level of support in this election but he won't be able to close the gap enough to get close to Ouellette.
19/09/03 Peter Misiaszek
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
Tories are toast. It's not just the signage, it's a general feeling among people I've spoken with that this riding will go NDP quite comfortably. I suspect the CAW set will return in droves to the NDP not wanting to support the losing side. NDP has this one in the bad.
19/09/03 Hawkeye
Anyone who has looked at the polling data in this riding knows that election signs are no guide to success in this riding. The Oshawa voting pattern is horseshoe-shaped, with the two points of the horseshoe facing the lake. Over fifty percent of the voters in each poll in the horseshoe vote low-taxes, and social conservatism. The gap in the middle of the horseshoe is filled with polls almost all of which were won by Ouellette in the last election, but in which he did not get at least 50% of the votes. NDP won in only a few polls (about 3), but not by over 50% of the votership. The Libs won in slightly more polls than the NDP but, again, not by 50% or more of the votership in each of those polls. Bottom line: Oshawa is opposed to taxes. Being the National and the provincial headquarters of the Seventh Day Adventist church, and home to many Catholics (Roman or otherwise), this is a choice-in-schools stronghold, with a tendency against spending taxpayer dollars on abortion. Union workers report being TOLD to vote NDP in this riding. That intimidation may get signs on lawns, but I'm hearing that there will be an f-u response in the voting booth. The real question in this riding: how will the blue vote go? Ouellette's tired. He's got signs on the front lawns of party members, not the general electorate. His other signs are destroyed or stolen on a steady basis. Many who voted for him because of Harris will not vote for him because of Eves. McKeever, who is running blue signs, is well known in town. Probably because he is the leader of a political party (Freedom Party) he has CTV following him wherever he goes with a camera (e.g., in Dnipro hall the other night). He also came on strong in last night's Rogers candidate debate, saying that Ouellette takes his marching orders from Eves, and that he is the "true blue" candidate. He is definitely the only candidate running a 'common sense' campaign (wisely or unwisely). Dark horse. This riding is way-way-way too complex to call.
18/09/03 David
Email: penyberth@hotmail.com
NDP in a close race. Sid Ryan can win this in a three way battle. The NDP support in this riding goes way back. The Liberals have not won in Oshawa, since, wait for it...at least since the Liberal government tried to smash the autoworkers strike in the 1930s. Since then it has been usually NDP, ocasionally Tory. Time for the Oshawa voters to come back home.
16/09/03 David Wallbridge
I recently spoke with an Oshawa resident who is not associated with any political party and the first thing she said about the election was that she is in Sid Ryan's riding. It is as if he has already won. With the Liberals virtually non-existent here all those 'choosing change' will vote NDP. Sid Ryan is well known as a hard worker who represents the members of his union very well. This will be another win for the NDP who will remain low in the polls heading into the election but will fair much better than expected in terms of seats.
13/09/03 Peter Misiaszek
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
Simply based on signage this riding is too close to call. South of Bloor Street is virtually all Sid Ryan (80%) on private property. Ouellette is on about 15% of property and the Liberal candidate on about 5%. I didn't see a single McKeever sign on private property. North of Bloor Street to about King Street its a virtual split in signage between the Ryan and Ouellette. North of King Street is the flip-side of south Oshawa with Ouellette signage in abundance on residential property. In all I'd give a slight edge to Ryan. I suspect the evidence of significant singage by Ryan owes to good organization in the months prior to the writ being dropped. The Liberals and Freedom Party are not a factor here.
11/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
I know most of you will think that I've gone bananas with this prediction but I have a feeling it could be a liberal steal. My reasoning has to do with the traditional swing between NDP and PC in this riding. I feel that there currently is a swing from PC to NDP in Oshawa but not enough to allow the NDP to win it, resulting in the Liberals coming up the middle. Probably a controversal prediction, but it's where I stand as of now.
10/09/03 Reality Check
Wow, if I actually believed the last four posts on this riding, I'd think Syd Ryan was going to win. Sorry to all the NDP gang but it just doesn't wash. There is no swing to the NDP anywhere in this election. Hampton already looks like he's on a death march across Ontario and we're only in the second week. You have to understand that this isn't Ed Broadbent's riding any more. The guys on the line at the auto plant vote Tory as a block and see Syd Ryan as some kind of radical left winger who'll raise their taxes. Jerry Oullette understands this and is running a tax fighter campaign that will work again in Oshawa. Syd can spout all the lefty lines he wants but nobody is buying in Oshawa. Jerry Oullette is going to be re-elected.
05/09/03 J.F.
Having lived in Oshawa 48 years i've witnessed huge swings back and forth in voting patterns over the years between the N.D.P. and the P.C. party. This time around i sense another big swing here in Oshawa. Sid Ryans high profile and ability to put more than 2 sentences together coupled with a weak cabinet minister that is caught up in the meat scandle will put Sid Ryan over the top.The Liberals have all but conceded this riding.
05/09/03 Craig
I've decided to call this one NDP. The Liberals are not expected to be a real factor and Hampton is working hard here to get Oshawa back. The unions seem to be strongly backing the Sid Ryan campaign while Ouellette is nowhere to be heard. The NDP have to be thankful that there is a limit on population in ridings, since it leaves the suburban parts of Oshawa out of this riding. At this point, I feel the NDP have the edge, also because the Liberal support seems to be eroding. Current prediction: Ryan 40%, Ouellette 35%, Topple 18%, McKeever 3%, Topple 3%, others 1%.
05/09/03 BB
Well the election is finally on and to no one's surprise Ryan is off to a very strong start, he is all over the tv , radio and print media and Ouellette is no where to be found. Ryan's signs are popping up across Oshawa and not on public property as the other two candidates are, a sure sign of who has the organizational strength on the ground which is necessary to win Oshawa. Ryan wiped the floor with both Ouellette and Topple at debate to discuss mental health in Oshawa.The NDP are back in Oshawa politics.
02/09/03 J.S
Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
Oshawa is not an easy one to predict. In many respects it is very similer to British Columbia(ie: a tendency to do more than slightly un-nearving electoral gymnastics), and as a result a big swing can just suddenly turn up from nowhere. No one is safe here(electorally at least). Ouellete has just got caught up in a scandal of some description(sorry to say I'm not sure what, but I think a Grit MPP wants him to resign), and I think that it might just give the edge to Ryan, but of course, I canna be sure. Whether Auto-Workers will continue to vote PC is certainly open to debate, and I don't know the answer to that question. But neither does anyone else. Also of interest is the fact that Oshawa is the only riding in the immediate 905 that the NDP has a chance in(Hamilton-Niagra don't *really* count). One to watch.
01/09/03 AD
Email: casnio@aol.ca
As weak an MP as Jerry O is he will go back in. Oshawa is know where near the union town it once was. Their are people who do not normally vote who will come out to vote against Sid Ryan. Sid Ryan's biggest plus is always his biggest weakness and that is his reputation. Jerry O is seen as one of the boy and while he may not be able to string two sentence together he will get re-elected.
29/08/03 Craig
This is a unique riding in the 905 surrounded by suburban areas that still has a union base (the outer suburban areas of Oshawa lie in the Durham riding). I feel that this will become a PC-NDP race now, the Liberals will probably conceed since they don't want to waste resources when they are poised to form government. The hard-right spillover to the Freedom Party is not likely now (which would have only been about 5% but could be the difference), since Eves responded with a very right-wing platform. Still, the unions are sure going to be backing Sid Ryan, so it will be a tight race between the two. Current prediction: Ouellette 36%, Ryan 34%, Topple 23%, Tweedle 3%, McKeever 2%, others 2%.
29/08/03 El Predicto
A lot has happened since May. Alright, Syd Ryan decided to run in Oshawa because he thought the CAW would support him. My question is, why do the Tories take Ernie Eves on to the shop floor of the big auto plants in Oshawa and Oakville so mush? It's because the auto workers are among the strongest supporters of the common sense revolution. In Oshawa the membership of the CAW will put Tory signs on their lawns and vote for Jerry Oullette, just like they have in the last two elections. The Liberals have figured out that they can't win in Oshawa and that's why they're just running Chris Topple again. Oshawa will stay Tory in this election, end of story.
21/08/03 M.S.
The anti-Tory wave will sweep through Oshawa, as it will the rest of the Durham ridings, but the combination of Sid Ryan's high profile and the labour/union influence still being substantial (although diminshed from 10 years ago), will carry the NDP here. People in Oshawa are upset about the mismanagement of Hydro, education, and health care. A weak cabinet minister like Oullette is the best bet in the Durhams to go down.
23/07/03 Bottom-feeder
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
While much could be said whether Eves deserves to be elected, the truth is that in Oshawa, the PC's are a shoein for re-election. Don't kid yourself, Oshawa is no longer the die-in-the-wool union town that it once was. Even if Sid Ryan captured every single union vote up for grabs he'd still be far off from winning. The reality is, and Sid should know this, the rank and file are far more conservative that their union leadership. When push comes to shove, these guys are as interested in tax cuts, crime and (dare I say) declaring education an essential service as the average Tory voter. I've read the tea leaves and I just don't see how any party can dethrown the PC's in Oshawa. BTW, the guy who suggested that the Freedom Party might garner anything close to 5% of the vote here is truly uninformed. Fringe parties have never done well in Oshawa. The city is rather multi-ethnic and multi-religious so the likelihood of a mass coalescence to a party of the hard right-wing is dubious at best. The FP will be lucky to get 1% of the vote even if Mckeever is a home boy.
15/07/03 WD
Why in the name of all that is holy is Oshawa listed as in play? Mambo King is dead right. The anti-PC vote split keeps getting more interesting as more strong candidates hop into this riding, which means that Jerry's lead is widening. The the hard-core hydro and GM union nuts will vote with the NDP, the teachers and Toronto Star readers will vote with the Liberals, the Republican wannabees and National Post readers will vote for McKeever and dopesmoking women with sensible shoes will vote for Tweedle. That means everyone else -- all the people who "read" the Sun(and that's a big group in this lunchbox and commuter-paper riding) -- will vote for Jerry. We're not talking about a 10% spread here on account of the Ernie factor, but still a win.
07/07/03 Sluggo
I don't think Jerry Ouellette has been given enough credit for taking care of the constituents in Oshawa. Not everyone is going to sit at the cabinet table but backbenchers hold their ridings by working hard to serve the voters who elect them. Jerry is one of those backbenchers.
04/07/03 Piggly Wiggly
Oshawa gets more and more like a typical 905 riding everyday. The riding is filling up with commuters who've bought big houses. I a few years you won't be able to tell the difference between Oshawa and Mississauga. For that reason, Syd Ryan and the NDP are not an option any more in this riding. This is a two way race between Topple and Oullette. Topple ran a bad campaign and lost in 1999. There's no reason to think he'll be better in 2003. Oullette is your winner.
03/07/03 Nomad
In response to the posting by BB. I agree with him that people in Oshawa vote with their wallets in mind. That's why Syd Ryan doesn't have any chance of winning. Syd is a honest to goodness left winger who longs for the days of ten billion dollar deficits and annual tax increase like the ones Bob Rae used to bring in. The CAW members who Syd thinks will be behind him, don't want tax increases and they like workfare. Syd might be able to finish a distant third because the Liberal candidate as many have said is just there to carry the flag. In the end Ouellette will run on the Tory platform of tax cuts and win.
27/06/03 Mambo King
People just don't get this riding. The Liberals will end up with 30 per cent of the vote, the NDP will get 30 per cent of the vote and Jerry Ouellette will win the seat with something like 38 per cent of the vote. It's called vote splitting folks. Look it up. This seat stays Tory.
17/06/03 BB
Having read "grandpa's analysis of the voters in Oshawa I really wonder if he has been smoking some of that funny stuff the federal Liberals have just decriminalised. Oshawa has been swinging between the NDP and Tories for the past 60 years. This is a classic swing riding where pocket book and local issues dominate. Harris appealed to the pocket book of voters in 1995 just as Bob Rae did in 1990 with public auto insurance. Ernie Eves is no Mike Harris in that he has broad appeal in terms of convictions. Ernie sells out at every opportunity in order to buy peace. Jerry Quellette coat-tailed on Mike Harris in '95 and again in '99 but Ernie's coat tails will not be long eneough this time round for Jerry. He has zero profile in Oshawa and worse ...he has no track record of any accomplishmnets for his 8 years in office. I agree with "grandpa" on one score and thats the Liberal candidate has no hope. He lost last time out and he has done nothing to build his base of support since the last election. In this election the Liberal will not receive any of the so called "strategic vote" which bumped up his numbers last time. Watch for this riding to swing back to NDP . Ryan is already setting the agenda on local and provincial issues. The all candidates debates will blow this election open for Ryan.
07/06/03 Grandpa
What the heck are these people thinking if they really believe Syd Ryan has any hope of doing anything but finishing third in a town like Oshawa. A long time ago, Oshawa was Ed Broadbent country, but times have changed my friends and it's now a very conservative place where the NDP just don't matter any more. As far as the Liberals go, they're going with the same guy who lost last time so you can't take them seriously either. Ouellette is no great MPP but people will vote party lines in Oshawa and return him to Queen's Park.
31/05/03 robert e
Justin, many, if not all, the items you criticize the Freedom Party about sounds like Tory ideas also - maybe Jim Flarety belongs in the Freedom Party as one example. If anything, the Freedom Party will take votes from Tories - that is a fact - just like the Chritian Heritage Party takes votes from the right. Will it effect Oulette's chances at re-election. I say yes - but only partly. The other reason is that Sid Ryan is the type of politician that many in Oshawa can relate to.
McKeever is a far-right egomaniac, and an avowed anti-socialist. It is possible that enough right-wingers are fed up with the Eves government, might use him as a protest vote. It would be classic if an avowed anti-socialist let in a socialist. But it looks increasingly possible.
30/05/03 Political Hack
More NDP Spin from Jay Bird. Try all you want to play with the numbers but they still have the NDP in third place, going nowhere. The only chance Syd Ryan had in Oshawa was for the NDP to stage a miracle comeback and finish somewhere around 25 per cent or more on election day. Other than a few NDP shills, nobody believes that's going to happen. Much more likely is that Ryan gets enough votes to let Ouellette get re-elected.
28/05/03 Jay Bird
The Compas poll had a tiny sample and a similar poll with a simlar sample earlier in the week by Vector had the NDP at 19%. Suffice it to say, it's not the be all and end all. Sid will run hard, he will have a lot of support, and I think he can take it. How many votes will the Freedom Party cost Ouellette?
26/05/03 Justin Leonard
Now what would it take for the Freedom Party to get elected in Oshawa? Hmmm let's see. Here's what Ontario would look like if the Freedom Party ever formed government: massive privatization of health care - those who can afford an MRI get it while the others languish; vouchers for public education - inner city schools languish to the benefit of the suburbs, elimination of separate schools, and a ban on teacher job action; a user pay system for roads, bridges, ferries, and air ambulance; elimination of welfare - you think we have a crisis in homelessness now, just wait; flat tax - rich get really rich and the poor don't matter; incursions against union membership; elimination of environmental regulation and creation of private sector monitoring with little or no enforcement; privatization of lcbo and tvontario; sale of liquor in corner stores, elimination of Ontario film review board; elimination of subsidy to farmers, marketing boards, entrepreneur capital, magazines and printing houses; wide open sale of pornography because there is no censorship, legalization and regulation of prostitution; complete legalization of pot - in fact, even hard core narcotics are available in controlled environments; reintroduction of the posse to deal with judicial matters.
The end result is the creation of a plutocracy - government by the rich for the rich. There is no place for the less fortunate. Their relief would fall exclusively to the responsibility of private charity. A vote for the Freedom Party is a vote for governance pre-Alexis de Toqueville and John Locke. It is a quest for unbridled liberty to the point where utter chaos is created because there is no government, no regulation, no letimacy only fear.
And a vote for the Freedom Party is ultimately a contradiction. Because Libertarianism, while it seeks to limit government under the facade of freedom, actually maintains a government mechanism that benefits only those who possess power, money or status. Only those who possess the latter could afford to the "luxury" of governing, the rest of us would spend our days foraging for even a morsel of food.
26/05/03 Craig (Updated prediction)
Out of the blue, the leader of the Freedom Party is running here, which will snare some votes away from the Tories (although not nearly enough to contend themselves, in a tight three-way race that will really hurt the Tories). I would put the Liberals as the front runner right now, but the NDP are still going to contend, and the Tories might too if they can rise in the polls to overcome the loss. Revised prediction: LIB 33%, NDP 29%, PC 25%, FPO 5%, Green 3%
23/05/03 Grizz
At this point in the game, Oshawa seems like a Hail Mary shot for the NDP. Yeah! Yeah! I know the NDP past that this riding had, but that was the past. Unless things change drastically in the polls I can't see an NDP win here. Liberals perhaps but this time I'm saying the PC will keep it.
23/05/03 Crystal Ball
I would have to say I was surprised when Syd Ryan decided to run in Oshawa instead of putting his name on the ballot in Scarborough Centre again. I thought he would have a chance to improve his results in Toronto rather than run in a very conservative riding like Oshawa. Looking at the National Post today and seeing the NDP dead last with only 11 per cent of support, it obvious that Syd will not challenge in Oshawa this time. I would think that the race here is between Chris Topple and Jerry Oullette. The Tories seem to have some momentum right now so I see Oullette winning again. Syd should have run in Scarborough Centre again.
20/05/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Third in one riding/election, winning in another riding/next election? Let's see, taking a couple of examples. Anne Swarbrick, NDP (3rd Markham 1987, 1st Scarborough West 1990). Carl DeFaria, PC (3rd Cambridge 1990, 1st Mississauga East 1995). And in the earlier elections, either candidate did Sid Ryan one worse--they lost their deposits. And DeFaria did it one *more* worse, ending up 3rd w/lost deposit federally in Mississauga East in 1993...
15/05/03 Number Cruncher
Despite a great deal of research, I was unable to find any record of a candidate finishing third in one election and then moving to another riding an winning the next time. That fact must be taken into consideration when looking at possible results for Oshawa. The key numbers for this riding are the percentage of the vote each local candidate got in 1999 compared to what their parties received province wide. Ouellette received 46 per cent of the vote while his party received 45 per cent province wide. So the Tory candidate performed to the same level of his party. Chris Topple received only 29 per cent of the vote compared to the province wide 40 per cent the Liberals received. Clearly the Liberal candidate drew a lesser amount of support than his party did. Collen Twomey received 22 per cent of the vote locally which was almost double the province wide result of 12 per cent that the NDP received. Clearly she out performed her party. This time provincial trends point to the Conservative percentage of the vote being reduced. Since Ouellette did not out perform his party numbers, it is reasonable to conclude his percentage of the local vote will go down. With the provincial numbers showing an increase in support for the Liberals, that should translate into an increase in Topple's numbers but since he ran almost 10 percentage points below his party last time, that will not be enough to win this seat. For Ryan to win this seat he will more than likely have to out perform his party's province wide result by more than 24 per cent. Not impossible but highly unlikely in a riding where all three parties have base support over the 20 per cent mark. The numbers point to the Conservatives winning Oshawa with a reduced margain of victory.
12/05/03 J.S
Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
A classic three-way marginal will all the ingrediants of a very close result. An unpopular Tory government and split opposition. If the NDP voters vote tacticaly for the Grits(or vice versa), this will be another Tory loss. But if the left is split as it was here in 1999, the Tories might just squeak it. I would put the NDP narrowly in front but...
10/05/03 bb
I have just read the profiles of the three main party candidates from the local newspaper. If anybody needs any convincing that Ryan is going to win this election just read what the Tories and in particular the Liberal candidate is saying about Sid Ryan. Mr Topple all but has conceded the race to Ryan and Mr Quellette demonstrates why he is not a force in the Tory government by acknowling he is unable to do much about issues such as the pollution on the lakefront lands in his riding. Ryan is setting the agenda again this past weekend by laying out a clear and concise plan on how to revitalize the downtown core of Oshawa.
This will be very intersting. The tory MPP is far right from what i've seen and the Grit is a through-back from the last election, and the NDP has an amazingly well know candidate in a traditionally tory/ndp riding. As a New Democrat i have s huge amount of respect for MR. Ryan for when he stood up to the ndp after the notoriously horrible social contract. He stoop up and said that he wouldn't vote for us anymore. Now he has seen that of all the parties we are still the most worker friendly and ideologically pure. I think that he has a really good shot at taking oshawa.
01/05/03 Craig
Chris Topple again for the Liberals (the last variable remaining) - this will be VERY interesting. Tory support has eroded province-wide, down about 15-20 percentage points from 1999. A vote split might be created once again, but on which side is the question. (a PC/Liberal split or a Liberal/NDP split) My gut feeling is that it will be a split on the left, but with Tory support continuing to fall, I think a narrow win for the Liberals since the NDP is too concentrated within the union population (large, but not large enough). Still too early to make an official decision, it could go to any of the parties. Predicted results: LIB 34%, PC 31%, NDP 29%, Green 5%. Too close to call though.
19/04/03 Tom Sch
I think the Tories are cooked in this election. Not only is it bus driving moms who are looking to Sid Ryan for change but also the talk on the line in GM is all about Ryan. He is regarded very highly as a straight shooter who is already raising the issues of importance to people in Oshawa. The Libs and Tories have done absolutely nothing to address the waterfront problems of pollution and lack of access to waterfront. Ryan on the other hand is front and centre in the debate doing what he does best..offering solutions to a long standing squabble between all levels of government. We love it when the other two parties try to dismiss Ryan based on results from 4 years ago..Ryan will continue to set the agenda in Oshawa and reap the benifits on election night.
17/04/03 Reality Check
The NDP need to wake up and smell the coffee. You got 13 per cent of the vote in '99 and your number of seats went down. This year the NDP are running at 11 per cent and after this election won't even have official party status in the Ontario legislature. So this idea that a party at 11 per cent is going to pick up a seat like this makes no sense. Sid Ryan can hand out brochures to Bus Driving Moms til the cows come home but he's still going to finish third.
13/04/03 Oshawa Bus Driving Mom
I don't know much about provincial polls and what they really mean but I know what I see. From what I see, this riding is going NDP. Sid Ryan and the NDP are all over the place here in Oshawa. I've gotten a leaflet already delivered to my doorstep, I've seen Sid on a number of local TV shows and heard him on the radio yesterday. And just today, I got the chance to meet him when he knocked on my door. This guy is the real deal. I say this riding goes NDP. The Liberals have never been a force here in Oshawa. They talk a good game but this is still a two party town. I know from listening to the people on my bus route that they want the Tories out. Sid and the NDP are the best bet for us here in Oshawa to do that.
11/04/03 J S
I think there is a real chance for change in this city. Everyone around town seems to know who Sid is, while few can name the others (even our twice elected mpp.). Sid has put out some adds and people like the portable pension plan and the stand he has taken on hydro. He seems to have a plan for Oshawa. There has been a void in this city for 8 years and even a die hard Tory would have to admit that Oshawa has been invisible on the Harris - Eves radar. The Liberals have not elected a provincial member here since the early 40's. Topple got the vote he did because of vote splitting in 99 and Liberal lies and poll manipulation from their riding executive who put the Liberals way out ahead of the NDP near the end of the election, convincing NDP supporters they had no chane to win (a poll conducted for the local paper by a company owned by the liberal party president). The polls till that point had the Liberals a distant third. With the PC's and NDP you know what you will get in their candidates.
10/04/03 bb
I would caution Scotty about feeling too cocky over a pre-election poll shwoing the Liberals at 50+%. I would remind him of Peterson in 1990(57%) McLeod in 1995(54%)and McGuinty in 1999 (53%). The Liberals received the benifit of strategic voting in Oshawa last time out.They will be lucky to get their deposit back this time around.
09/04/03 Scotty
April 5 EKOS poll results. Liberals 53% Tories 34% NDP 11%. The NDP are fading fast and that means Syd Ryan has no chance of winning this seat. The Tories will hang on in Oshawa.
04/04/03 bb
It looks like Sid Ryan has an excellent chance of winning this riding based on many factors. He has a high profile in this region, he has lived here for 24 years and is a nationally known figure on tv and radio talk shows. He led the fight with the support of his union to take on the Tories privatization of HYDRO, saving ordinary rate payers thousands of dollars in the process. He is starting the campaign with an enormous amount of support from the thousands of unionised voters in the riding. He more than anybody, will be able to organize them into a large voting block.The membershipship from his own union is huge when you consider all the CUPE memebrs working in Durham region but live in Oshawa, employees from hospitals, schools, municipalities, social services, etc. In addition to his organizing potential he is by far the more skilled debater and public speaker. He will win the public debates hands down. He has great appeal at the door step, voters in Oshawa know he can deliver on promises ..just look at the job he did on the sale of Hydro. The last and probably most important point to be made is that this Riding has only gone Liberal once in 60 yrs and that was not long after ww2. This is your classic swing riding,it either goes NDP or Tory and my bet is on Sid Ryan for the NDP.
01/04/03 Stelco Steve
My brothers and sisters in the CAW will make sure Sid Ryan wins Oshawa.
31/03/03 William De Bruin
Don't be surprised if this is one of the ridings that reacts strongest to recent Tory flip-flops. There are lots of people employed by Ontario hydro here ... and although there's a strong undercurrent of Flaherty-style Toryism in the riding, there is enough anti-Eves sentiment here to allow the NDP and Liberals to make significant gains ... if only because many right-wing Tories will sit on their hands in this one. However, I think the riding is too fundamentally conservative to vote NDP. Ouelette by a nose. Incidentally, the GPO candidate is KAREN Tweedle ... not Kevin. She's a smart, photogenic local businesswoman who will probably help the GPO expand its base here. She'll probably pick up votes from all three other parties, however, and her presence likely won't help any of the other parties out terribly much.
21/03/03 Craig
This riding could go to either the Tories or NDP, depending on the political conditions. A strong Liberal candidate would definitely create a Tory hold like in 1999 due to vote splitting. If the Liberals nominate a very weak candidate, however, this riding will be very close since there is a strong union base here and they will be pushing strongly to get Sid Ryan elected. If the NDP can poll over 20% again then they should win with a weak Liberal candidate, if they poll under 20% then too close to call.
18/03/03 RWA
Email: radams2@uwo.ca
Ouellete seems to have a lot of room to work with in his lead. The nomination of a strong NDP candidate will probably serve to further split the vote. As someone else mentioned, the union members in Oshawa are more conservative than in say, Windsor. I believe the Alliance had its best urban result in Oshawa in 2000. It may be a reduced plurality, but the Tory will hold.
14/03/03 El Predicto
Syd Ryan picked the wrong riding to run in again this time. Syd thinks the CAW in Oshawa will support him as the NDP candidate. The reality is that today's CAW member makes a lot of money and is more interested in tax cuts than social programs. The NDP were a bad third here last time and Syd won't do much better. This means Jerry Ouellette will keep this seat for the Tories.
11/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Jerry Ouellette to win Oshawa. I don't like Syd Ryan's track record for the NDP. He ran in Toronto last time and limped over the finish line in third place. Besides, Jerry will have the home court advantage and in Oshawa that's important to coming out on top. Syd will come up short again.
10/03/03 Peter Misiaszek
I'm still not comfortable with the idea that the NDP could win in this city - but I' won't rule it our altogether. As an erstwile Tory, I believe that Eves is in big time trouble. He has several things going against him: 1) Tainted with the shortcomings of the Common Sense Revolution of which he was a leading stalward;2) A slick Bay-street image -he doesn't look trustworthy; 3) He is the bane of social conservatives within the party, he has demonstrated no interest in appeasing their interests and from a moral point of view his marital relationship is a target of ridicule and draws attention to why he is not a desireable leader; 4) His flip-flop on the energy and tax issues - he used to be all in favour of privatization and tax-cuts, so what happened; 5) Oshawa is not a traditional bed of neo-conservativism. Having said all this, I don't think the folks in my hometown will necessarily jump ship to the NDP. After all, it has oft times been said "better to vote for the devil you know than the devil you don't know."
08/03/03 SM
I have to agree with JD. This is probably the NDP's best chance to pick up a riding, save for Ottawa Centre, or a Windsor or Northern Ontario seat. Sid Ryan is a fantastic candidate and labour leader, and I think it's not too daring to suggest he'll be able to really rally the troops.
28/02/03 J. D.
I am sure this riding can swing back to the NDP. The biggest factor no one can ignore is that people do vote for the leader. Without Mike Harris, things are up for grabs. People will not be polarized by any of the three party leaders. Now I know I said people vote for the leader but Harris has left a large void for the Torries. With Sid Ryan the Oshawa NDP have a credible candidate who put great effort into fighting for public Hydro. CUPE got the court injunction and put resources into organising the hydro coalition with the NDP. Many said it was too late. The Liberals voted with the PC's. With Eves as leader many are vulnerable. No person in Oshawa can name a single issue Jerry has taken on or done for our city.
14/02/03 Peter Misiaszek
The selection of Sid Ryan as the NDP candidate for Oshawa is a new twist for voters in Oshawa. A long-time NDP town where the working-class are now firmly established as middle class should play like a game of chess come election time. If the NDP are ever to stage a comeback in Oshawa, Sid is the best bet. The problem for the NDP is that many of the folks living here - I for one - don't consider Oshawa to be a factory town anymore. Our fathers paid their dues of years on the picket line, but now that their wallets are flush with cash, the mantra of tax cuts resonates well. The NDP's preoccupation with special interest groups is a turn off for many here and their dismal performance in government from '90 to '95 is still remembered. I suspect, however, that the NDP still has some loyal supporters here and that could split the vote to the Liberals advantage.
14/11/02 Andrew Cox
1) As AS mentioned, the Liberal/NDP vote split here is absurd. United behind one or the other, the anti-Tory vote could beat Ouellette. But it will be divided again and Jerry will sail up the middle. 2) Ouellette is actually a weak candidate. His gun obsession makes him vulnerable to an attack aimed at pushing middle-class women away from him. He hasn't worked the riding as hard as he should. He's a non-entity as Minister of Natural Resources. 3) The riding's high NDP numbers will likely entice the NDP leadership to spend a lot of time here. But unless they nominate a superstar, it probably won't be enough to overcome the vote split. 4) That said, if Eves tanks, the loss of the PCs "average Joe" credentials could see a sharp decline in support. Most likely of the four Durham seats to change hands, but that's still an outside chance at best.
10/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
As a legacy from the Broadbent-Breaugh-Pilkey years, GM-fueled Oshawa is the only seat in Toronto's immediate 905 belt where NDP remains a factor, at least on paper. But Oshawa morphed into a blue-collar Reform/Alliance stronghold in the 90s, and that machine propelled Ouellette to a shock victory in 1995 and reelection in 1999. Still, he sits on the smallest 1999 905-Tory mandate--on the other hand, he's now in cabinet, and Jim Flaherty is next door. But Eves is premier, not Flaherty, and the seat's still technically weak. Except, of course, for the likelihood that Liberal and NDP will cancel each other out again...

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