Parkdale-High Park

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Parkdale-High Park

Last Update:
5:05 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
14 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Gerard Kennedy

Progressive Conservative:
Stephen Snell

New Democratic Party:
Margo Duncan

Green Party:
Neil Spiegel

Incumbent:

Gerard Kennedy

Federal MP:

Sarmite Bulte

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 10375

*GERARD KENNEDY

23022 54.92%

*ANNAMARIE CASTRILLI

12647 30.17%

IRENE ATKINSON

4937 11.78%

FRANK DE JONG

500 1.19%

DOUG BURN

325 0.78%

STAN J. GRZYWNA

289 0.69%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 12 729

Sarmite Bulte

20 676 49.4%

Paul Schmidt

7 947 19%

David Strycharz

5 681 13.6%

Vicki Vancas

4 882 11.7%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 107968

1996 105740

1991 104159

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 21305

20-39 40780

40-59 25745

60+ 17925

Avg Household Income
$58020

Labour Participation 67.00%

Unemployment 10.50%

Canadian Citizen
83.59%

Canadian Born 53.18%

Ontario Born 43.82%

Immigrant 44.95%

Visible Minority 24.86%

Aboriginal 0.56%

First Language

English 55785

French 1775

Polish 9340

Ukrainian 3875

Chinese 3330

Vietnamese 2820

Portuguese 2545

Residence

House 35.99%

Apartment 63.45%

Owned 36.33%

Rented 63.67%

Avg Dwelling Value $246451

Education

University 34010

College/Trade School 19420

Secondary 24905

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	01/10/03	Bonnie Email:
I am really disappointed by the PCs and NDP in this riding: no attempt to reach the voters, no flyers, no information, no phone calls. They don't even warrant a thought, never mind a vote, after the effort they DIDN'T put into this campaign. They rolled over and played dead, and they'll be buried tonight.
	24/09/03	glendonwynnite Email:
One of the easiest ridings in the province to predict. Even in the really affluent areas, such as Bloor West Village, the Kennedy signs far outnumber anyone else's. There is a great deal of middle-class anger because of the way great old Toronto schools such as Humberside and Runnymede elementary have suffered due to Tory education policies. The only real questions for election night are how high will the Liberal vote be and will the Tories win a single poll?
	23/09/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
P-HP not only doesn't "end at Lansdowne", it encompasses all of Parkdale; its E boundary follows the arc of the railway tracks. But I agree that Kennedy's headed for a monster mandate, and both PC and NDP could be headed for historic lows. (The tardy near-invisibility of the NDP campaign may be in part because Margo Duncan was prepared to abandon her candidacy on behalf of a municipal bid--unfortunately, the writ was dropped before she could do so.) Not only that, but judging by signage, PC, NDP, and the Greens could be battling it out for 2nd...
	21/09/03	ML Email:
Anybody predicting an NDP victory is clearly unfamiliar with this riding. In 1999 every single factor was working in favour of the NDP - Irene Atkinson was well-known, and popular, and had more than the token campaign Duncan has been running (very few signs here). As well the Liberals are more popular overall than in 1999 - this does not bode well for the NDP in this riding. People see "Parkdale" and think NDP - the problem is that most of the Parkdale area is actually in the Davenport riding (Parkdale-High Park ends at Lansdowne), while the part that is in High Park - Parkdale is the Roncesvales village neighbourhood, which is socio-economically NOT Parkdale (south of Queen does fit the Parkdale profile, but is definitely makes up the minority of the riding, especially considering the tendency of poorer voters and renters not to vote). As for the Tories, 1999 was also their last best chance. They had a former liberal cabinet minister, and made significant efforts to keep the riding. With a strong NDP candidate to help them ride up the middle, things couldn't have stacked up better for them (well Castrilli could have become Polish). Frank De Jong running for the greens also helped cut the left vote.
	16/09/03	M.S. Email:
The question seems to be in this riding, not will Kennedy win, but will he take over 70% of the vote. If McGuinty's numbers hold (49% today), its possible, and he becomes the next Education Minister. If the party numbers don't hold, Kennedy might be the next Liberal leader. Either way, this is one of the easiest picks in the province.
	06/09/03	Craig Email:
Gerard Kennedy is still in a position to steamroll over the field here, with a very strong profile and no real strong Tory or NDP opponent this time around. The voters here will know Kennedy will likely be in a major position whether the Liberals win (he will likely be Minister of Education) or lose (he will likely be the next Liberal leader) and that will set up an enormous landslide win here. His left-of-centre position precludes any real NDP base from forming here, and the Tories have died off, meaning his opponents will likely all lose their deposit. Current prediction: Kennedy 72% (second largest margin of victory in Ontario), Snell 12%, Duncan 12%, others 4%.
	05/09/03	Mr. Chachacha Email:
Mr. Kennedy has this riding locked-up. Why the Tories would even bother entering a canidate is beyond most people in the area. Every major Tory decision has affected the riding more so then most riding. The area has a high concentration of residential treatment patients walking the streets without service, high level of people living in rooming houses, decreased services of all kinds and during the big blockout most of the area was out of power for 40 hours.
	02/08/03	ML Email:
While old High Park remains a bastion of Toryism in Toronto, the riding will go strongly for Gerard Kennedy. With the retirement of Derwyn Shea, and the manipulation of riding boundaries from High Park-Swansea (where the Tories won 59% of the vote in '95) to High Park-Parkdale, the Liberal supporters in Roncesvalles village and Parkdale will slaughter the Tories. As for the NDP, if they couldn't win with Irene - the best possible candidate they could have - they can't win with anybody.
	09/06/03	Craig Email:
Gerard Kennedy, probably the next Minister of Education, should steamroll over the competition here. He is a very left-wing Liberal (almost should be with the NDP) and that will prevent vote losses on the left. A fairly right-wing leader will help gather old Tory votes as they collapse. This will be a dream result, the second largest majority in Ontario. Predicted results: LIB 71%, NDP 11%, PC 11%, Green 3%.
	30/05/03	Beanie Baby Email:
Too close to call. Kennedy seems to make one stupid statement after another. Not sure what I think of the Tory candidate, but their Campaign Team looks to be one of the best the Tories have put together. They alone may be able to pull it off. If they had a guarranteed blue chip candidate, this would be a slam dunk for the Tories. Either way, it could still go Tory blue in the next election.
	15/05/03	Grizz Email:
Liberal cake-walk here. Look at the numbers from last time. Look at Liberal strength in the polls. NDP or PS don't have a chance.
	25/04/03	Steve Email:
Snell, as I understand it, ran for the PC nomination in St. Paul's and lost (understandable that he would have preferred to run against Bryant than Kennedy). He is being served up by the party as the sacrificial lamb against Kennedy - no chance Kennedy loses - the only question is how big his margin of victory will be and whether he will be the education minister after the election or the next leader of the opposition (after a long and bitter leadership rematch).
	20/04/03	T.M. Email:
Just to let everyone know, the PC candidate is Stephen Snell. Never heard of him? Neither have I. Toronto banker, supposedly. Masters in Poli Sci from U of T. The moral of tonight's story? Kennedy will win. The rest is just details.
	15/03/03	larry skoog Email:
Kennedy would get a senior ministry position -Education and prev submissions right he would be likely leadership choice if LIBS lose- in 1999- well known NDP candidate ran poor third so probably only race will be for second place with NDP second if PCs not run a good candidate- he is on the left side of spectrum so NDP support gets crowded out here
	30/01/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Gerard Kennedy is a rarity: a provincial Grit attempt to out-NDP the NDP that worked (cf. Bob Hunter in Beaches-East York). And the 1999 result demonstrated how effectively that worked, especially given that much of this turf had traditionally swung PC-NDP--still, the exceptionally poor NDP showing in '99 was a strategic-voting fluke, and the local organization's such that it wouldn't surprise to see the New Democrats reassume second place. But defeat Kennedy? Only if the Dalton machine is steamrollered by the Howie machine, or if either Jack Layton (federally) or David Miller (municipally) shows extraordinary provincial coattails. Otherwise, this is one of those cases where a federal NDP takeover seems more imminent than a provincial NDP takeover. The Tories? P-HP may be more Evesian than Harrisian in its Toryism; but it is inner-city Toronto in the aftermath of the Common Sense Revolution...
	19/12/02	Marto Email:
It would take a big upset - But don't count the NDP out in this riding. I live in this riding and I have never received anything from Gerard. If the NDP keep moving up in the polls (or can at least hold onto 22% recently reported) they will take this in one of the biggest upsets in the province. To prevent losing - Gerard should do the right thing and cross over to the NDP where he would fit in more.
	05/12/02	SM Email:
I would say this is one of the safer Liberal seats. Gerard should have been the Liberal leader before Dalton, and constituents are well aware of that. He'll have plenty of oppertunity to take the leadership after he's re-elected while Dalton leads the party to an even more disappointing showing than the previous one in 1999.
	04/11/02	IanB Email:
Kennedy will win easily in this riding. He's established a high-enough profile as education critic and has been hard-working for his constituents. If the Liberals lose the election, expect to see Kennedy as Liberal leader after McGuinty steps down (or is forced out).
	11/10/02	Mike F. Email: m.foderick@utoronto.ca
Last election Gerard soundly defeated an ideal NDP candidate in Trustee Irene Atkinson (having been elected in the area for almost 20 years), and an almost ideal red Tory candidate (for the area) in Annamarie Castrilli, who is a local resident and former Liberal Cabinet Minister. The opposition won't be anywhere near as strong this time. Gerard is also a big constituency person who has been working the riding steadily since 1999, not letting his critic portfolio take him away too often. I predict one of the largest Liberal victories in the entire Province here.

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