Scarborough Southwest

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Last Update:
9:51 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
4:40 PM 28/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Lorenzo Berardinetti

Progressive Conservative:
Dan Newman

New Democratic Party:
Barbara Warner

Green Party:
Andrew Strachan

Incumbent:

Dan Newman

Federal MP:

Tom Wappel

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 2357

*DAN NEWMAN

15349 39.76%

ADRIAN HEAPS

12992 33.66%

MICHAEL YORKE

8962 23.22%

WIKTOR PAWEL BORKOWSKI

495 1.28%

BARBARA SCHAEFER

466 1.21%

LAURENCE CORP

339 0.88%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 16 215

Tom Wappel

21 466 60%

Ellery Hollingsworth

5 251 14.7%

Nabil El-Khazen

4 912 13.7%

Dan Harris

3 638 10.2%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 113616

1996 108178

1991 101551

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 27100

20-39 36370

40-59 25350

60+ 19365

Avg Household Income
$48899

Labour Participation 61.60%

Unemployment 11.60%

Canadian Citizen
84.06%

Canadian Born 55.43%

Ontario Born 48.66%

Immigrant 43.30%

Visible Minority 37.40%

Aboriginal 0.51%

First Language

English 68145

French 1070

Chinese 6255

Tamil 4685

Italian 2865

Pilipino 2345

Greek 2280

Residence

House 46.89%

Apartment 52.97%

Owned 49.19%

Rented 50.81%

Avg Dwelling Value $188854

Education

University 18805

College/Trade School 23025

Secondary 33735

Authorized by the CFO for the Scarborough Southwest Provincial PC Association


	30/09/03	Lisa T Email:
Liberal staff out in force here I see? ; ) With all due respect to Irs, the NDP is not fighting for official party status in this election. They are fighting to be the opposition against a Liberal majority. They're going to pick up seats for certain. I think voters are happy not to have an NDP government, but they're also happy to send Hampton as their watchdog to keep Dalton honest. A week ago I would have said this race was too close to call, but with the Liberals so assured of government now, I predict a lot of soft Liberal votes will head to the NDP. It will be close, less than 2000 votes I would say. But it will be NDP.
	28/09/03	lrs Email:
it would seem this should be Liberal gain- I cannot see NDP candidate coming on to beat the Liberal tide-unless voters want to make certain NDP gets official party status- - if NDP loses here - objective persons will have to say that Hampton's leadership is over- with persons wanting change this should be a type of seat that the NDP should win or lose by less than 5% in normal times
	28/09/03	JM Email:
Even though I kind of like Dalton McGuinty, I think this is the Scarborough riding which has a small chance of going NDP. Barbara Warner is running an extremely strong campaign. I have received three calls from their office, as opposed to two from the Liberals and none from the PCs. The NDP was the first to get the literature in the door, followed by the Liberals. The PCs have delivered no literature. I think the PC campaign in this riding has run out of volunteers. So all the anti-NDP votes will go to the Liberals, with a small Tory rump. But now we have anti-PC votes like we had in the 1993 federal election with a sense of PAYBACK TIME for Ipperwash, Walkerton and the other cuts.
	27/09/03	Walter Email: Walter_Gilbert@hotmail.com
I agree that Newman will run third. The Toronto Star released a poll today showing the Tories are behind the NDP within the 416 area code! (And 64% of people want public auto insurance!) I think that's just as big a problem for Lorenzo as it is for Newman. I think the number one reason people have been thinking of voting Liberal is to get rid of the government. But with Tories like Newman about to go down in flames, no matter whether people vote NDP or Liberal, it will free up a lot of formerly strategic voters to go with the NDP. Lorenzo and Warner have both been running strong campaigns, either could pull it off. But my money goes on Warner because of the NDP history in a large part of the riding, and because I think that even if people figure the NDP isn't going to be government, voters want a strong voice in the house demanding things like public auto insurance which the Liberals just aren't offering.
	25/09/03	Craig Email:
This riding will be dramatically different when it comes to the 2003 results vs. 1999 results. Newman will certainly lose this seat, in fact he will likely drop to third and lose so much support that the vote split means nothing. Warner is having a strong campaign and should gain on 2003 but Berardinetti should win easily riding the wave of red to Queen's Park. I don't think strategic voting will be an issue, since Newman will be lucky to top 25% this time and will likely be much closer to losing his deposit than winning. I don't see any Toronto seats going Tory. Current prediction: Berardinetti 44%, Warner 29%, Newman 20%, Strachan 5%, others 2%.
	22/09/03	Thomas Email:
Scarberians have learned from the vote split of 99 not to let the tories slide in again. Newman is in trouble here, and the weakness of the Warner campain will help Berardinetti. To respond to TK, Berardinetti is actually a big-name councillor who has been around for YEARS and is very popular in Scarborough. He is a much bigger name than both Newman and Warner. Everyone knows the NDP is no factor here. Its Liberals vs. Conservatives with the NDP trailing badly. The social contract, Bob Rae, and the Dalton momentum will keep the NDP at the low end of the totum pole. Remember, the NDP gained nothing last time. This is precisely because of the social contract, and with strategic voting sure to be in place, this time will be no different. In fact, the NDP may go down even more. The conservatives are praying for a vote split, but it just isn't going to happen. Left-wing voters are much smarter now.
	21/09/03	Wayne Email:
Do not underestimate Lorenzo Berardinetti. He has been a big name in these parts for YEARS. Barb Warner is not David Warner, and voters know this. Sure, maybe one day she could be and MPP, but this time, people will be going Liberal. These dippers just don't get it. The left wing has learned from the infamous 1999 vote splits which allowed the tories to romp last time. Its now 2003, and left-wingers have had another 4-5 years of tory nonsense. I am predicting Lorenzo Berardinetti to win this riding easily. The NDP campaign is not strong, and the ghost of Bob Rae's broken promises/social contract is still lurking around Ontarians homes.
	21/09/03	Yukon Pundit Email:
Geez, this looks like a tight one. However,despite some wishful thinking , it's safe to say the NDP won't be able to scoop up enough to take this riding. That being said, if the Liberals can hold on to their province-wide improvement that the polls may be indicating they could finally do (after four elections), they that increase in Liberal approval should be enough to push this riding into the Grit column. If the Libs blow yet another lead in the polls then Newman could hold onto this one.
	19/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
Dan will not win this riding. Though Warner will do better than the average NDPer, Tory votes switching to Liberal will be all the gap-closing Berardinetti needs. Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke North are lost. Even the Tories admit it.
	17/09/03	L Email:
Given that Stephen Lewis used to represent the area at Queen's Park and is a friend of the Warner family I don't think you can take his speaking at a fundraiser as anything but the riding association and Warner family cashing in on an old favour.
	17/09/03	Old Bruce Boy Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
Tight three way race here. Lots of people sick of the Tories and the mess they have left us in. Still the incumbent has the name recognition. Liberals are running a City councilor. NDP well organized and working hard. I predict the winner will get less than 38% of the votes.
	15/09/03	TK Email:
The Tories have abandoned Scarborough Southwest. They don't have the resources to prop up all their ridings in the GTA, and a seat hotly contested by both the Libs and NDP is not going to be one they focus resources on (and I've heard as much secondhand from a Tory strategist). So I consider Newman to be hung out to dry. (Plus people across the GTA seem to be pretty down on the Tories if you look at the polls.) The question then, is whether Warner or Berardinetti will pick up the pieces. Sure, the Warner signs were a little slow in getting out, but they've been growing at a steady rate now, and they've snagged some choice locations. I also saw a Warner ad on one of those three-in-one garbage/recycling bins, so I don't think you can say the NDP is asleep at the switch in the riding. But the big thing I think, was the huge fundraising dinner they had on Saturday, with Stephen Lewis himself. You don't get an international figure like Lewis, plus a ton of union sponsors, lining up for a riding that they aren't sure is going NDP. The Liberals aren't doing anything close to that kind of event, and they seem to be content to ride Dalton's coattails, which might work, but the fact is, they don't have the history in the area that the NDP has, and Warner is a legal aid lawyer who has actually worked for people in Scarborough Southwest. Berardinetti is a noname councillor from a different ward. So I'd say the Libs have got an uphill battle, unless Dalton starts to look a lot more attractive to people than he does right now. Warner by 5000 votes.
	11/09/03	My Spine Email:
This is a three way race and that's just the way Dan Newman and the PC's want it. Let Barardinetti and Warner beat each other up for the opposition vote while Newman works on keeping his Conservative supporters happy with more tax cuts. The only way Newman will be able to win is by the NDP and Liberals cancelling each other out. I think that's what's going to happen.
	10/09/03	Buffy The Liberal Slayer Email:
Barbara Warner doesn't have to run a big campaign here. All she has to do is make sure she holds on to the traditional NDP base of support and Newman wins. Barardinetti will come close but Warner will hold the NDP support and I can now predict that Newman wins by 2000 votes.
	07/09/03	A Email:
The big suprise so far in Scarborough Southwest is the apparent weakness of the Warner campaign. Barbara Warner has been campaigning for a year yet a drive through the riding finds plenty of Liberal and Tory signs but nary an NDP sign. Now, it's early and it could be there's just been some sort of organisational problems in getting out sign crews - Warner's had the nomination for some time and has money so it's unthinkable that the signs would not have been printed up and stacked in the campaign office weeks ago but there may just be a delay in getting vehicles and people coordinated for actual sign blitzes - but if by next weekend Scarborough Southwest isn't covered by a sea of orange signs in the same number as red and blue signs then that's a clear indication of trouble. If the NDP campaign ends up being weak in an area of traditional NDP support such as Scarborough Southwest the Libeals will benefit and be able to defeat Newman quite handily. If Warner's campaign is able to get up to full speed this week and if the central NDP campaign does well then this seat becomes a 3 way tossup. At the moment though it looks like it'll go Liberal.
	06/09/03	Frozen Toast Email:
Barbara Warner can't win Scarborough South-West. Then again, Lorezo Barardinetti can't win this riding either. The NDP and the Liberals are going to do the lame Dan Newman a favour and split the vote.
	03/09/03	Monkey Poo Email:
Heard that the Scarborough Southwest PC's did not have enough members so that they could send their full slate of delegates to the PC leadership convention. Can someone confirm? If that's the case, Newman has no organization on the ground. How well the NDP does will depend partly on whether Newman's vote totally collapses or not. There is an NDP history in this riding....NDP held it as Scarborough West from 1963-1995. So there is a solid core vote there of at least 20%. Berardinetti's municipal constituency only partially overlaps Scarborough SW. So question is whether this race will be decided primarily by the strength of the local candidates or by the province-wide trends.
	26/08/03	Frozen Toast Email:
Barbara Warner just may end up getting elected in Scarborough South West. She's had a lot of help in the past few months from Michael Prue and his campaign team. They've come in and help organize a very good campaign team behind Warner. With weak candidates in the rest of Scarborough, the NDP are moving all their troops into this riding to see if they can take the seat. Warner has also got two pretty weak candidates running against her. Dan Newman has not done well in his time and Queen's Park. The big surprise for me is what a poor candidate Lorenzo Berardinetti has turned out to be. He was supposed to be a star candidate for the Liberals and a sure thing to win this riding. Instead Lorenzo has spent little time going door to door and has had some serious problems with his campaign team. All Warner has to do to win this seat is take her support up from the 31 per cent mark to around 38. Newman and Bardinetti will each come in mid to low 30's and the NDP will have picked up a new seat in eastern Toronto.
	20/08/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Of course, the poll that gave the NDP 31% might also suggest that Newman's headed for a miserable third (as happened to Bill "Not Him" Davis in Scarb Centre in '87). Also remember that "core Tory vote" does not necessarily equal "those who voted Tory in 1999", and that PC's have pretty consistently underperformed in polls relative to 1999 (esp. in Toronto). It doesn't mean they won't perk up come election day. But look, all you "confident" PC predictors; vote split or no vote split, that's still a weak mandate Newman's sitting on, and if one extrapolates from current polls he could be headed for under a third of the vote this time, and splits are seldom precisely 50/50 for the opposition...
	13/08/03	Big City Politics Email:
A friend of mine in the polling business tells me that Barbara Warner is running at about 31% in Scarborough South West. That number makes sense if you consider the following. The latest public polls show the NDP running at around 26% to 28% city wide in Toronto. Now you know the NDP are running below that in ridings like Etobicoke Centre, St.Paul, Don Valley West and Scarborough Agincourt. You also know the NDP are running above that figure in their three held ridings. This 31% figure says a lot. First of all Barbara Warner has turned out to be a very good candidate for the NDP and she has a team that is making it happen for her in the riding. The Jack Layton has also given the NDP a boost city wide this year. Another thing this number says is that Lorenzo Berardinetti has failed to capture the anti-government vote in this riding. Warner running at over 30% is very good news for Dan Newman. It means he's in the driver's seat and by simply hanging on to his core Conservative vote, Newman gets to go back to Queen's Park.
	29/07/03	Blue Blood Email:
The previous poster seems to think that strategic voting is alive and well here in 2003. He's dead wrong. The NDP have staged a comeback in Toronto and the days of their supporters holding their noses and strategically voting Liberal are over. This is going to be even more the case as the Liberals continue to slide in the polls. This election is going to be more about vote splits than anything else. With the NDP on the rise, the Liberals fading as usual, it leaves Dan Newman holding the vote on the right and keeping this riding.
	24/07/03	Harold Email:
The comment about the Tories gainning three points in the polls means nothing. Three points when you factor in plus or minus the percentage point error margin is meanlingless. Secondly Dan Newman has been anything but a moderate. This guy was Environment Minister when Walkerton happened and he also raised taxes on seniors who are in Provincial long term care facilities, and most of them on fixed incomes, by 15%. Traditionally the NDP would be in a position to win but most NDP voters know that the only way to beat the Tories is to vote Liberal. Expect this trend to play itself out and defeat the Tories.
	22/07/03	Backseat Driver Email:
Last week's poll showed that the Liberal lead which has been as high as 20 points is now down to 13 points. This makes the political future a lot brighter for Dan Newman. The only chance Lorenzo Berardinetti had to win this seat was if there was a Liberal sweep of the province. It looks now like that won't happen. So this riding will be one by the candidate with the best political organization and political skills. No question that Newman has by far the better political machine behind him. Newman may not be the best politician on Toronto but he's a much better performer than the always stiff Lorenzo. Scarborough Southwest will still be controlled by Dan Newman when the smoke clears.
	18/07/03	The Brain Email:
I think it will be the hard line right wing Tories that go down in this election. The moderates like Newman who've stayed more in the middle of the road will likely survive. Besides, I think there's too much credit given candidates who have a municipal background like Lorezo. More often than not, they go down in flames because they don't understand the difference between running for city council and running in a party based system. Newman is going to survive and win back his seat.
	16/07/03	Happy Camper Email:
Walk down any street in this riding and ask people to tell you one thing Berardinetti has done in his time on city council. Nobody will be able to give you an answer because Lorenzo hasn't done a thing. This is the problem that he's going to face trying to give voters a reason for them to mark an X by his name on the ballot. Dave Newman has some ups and downs on his record but at least he has one. For that reason alone, I think Newman will keep his riding.
	16/07/03	J.S Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
This could go any one of three ways. All three parties have a chance of winning here, and the winning candidate will probably get less than 40% of the vote. I think the Liberals are the favourites to win here, but the NDP have a good chance of a win, and the Tories have incumbency on their side, plus vote-splitting. Its probably going to be Liberals first, then NDP then the Tories in third(based on opinion poll uniform swing), but its just too close. If I make a confidant prediction here, I will get it wrong, and look like a fool...so I won't. Just too close.
	11/07/03	Monkey Email:
I find it so interesting to see how the tone of each candidate's supporters changes as time goes on and their candidate either ganes or loses momentum. The Liberals who claim to be close to Lorenzo started out cool and confident but as time has gone by, their posts are getting more upset and emotional. We do know that there was a change in Lorenzo's campaign manager and I guess it's up to each person to decide whether that was a positive or negative move. For me the issue is, why would anyone in Toronto vote for candidates who've been on city council the last six years? Toronto is mess for a number of reasons with the poor performance of city council topping the list. City hall is a place filled with scandals and bad policy. People like Lorezo, Brad Duguid, Paul Sutherland and Irene Jones will have a lot of explaining to do on the campaign trail. I really don't think any of them will win provincially other than Duguid because he's facing the truly awful Marilyn Mushinski in Scarborough Centre and Sid Ryan isn't running there this time. For that reason and because I see this party of Scarborough changing to a more conservative nature, I think Dan Newman will hold off Lorenzo.
	07/07/03	Matt Email:
It's interesting how these individuals claim to know so much about Lorenzo's finances and none of them were in attendance at his fundraiser this past winter. It was a huge success. Tell me something, why spend now? We don't even know when the fraidy cat tories will call the election. You know for a fact that his manager was fired as a scapegoat do you? His new manager knows 1/2 the ward having worked at city hall for Gerry Altebello and is well known for Save the Rouge. His old manager is also part of his staff and stepped aside to avoid the appearence of a conflict. I don't know anything about Newman (except that he will lose badly) so I won't comment on the lack of a campaign he has so far. I do know about Lorenzo and I know that you obviously don't.
	04/07/03	Trader Vic Email:
How can Lorenzo think he'll get elected on his record at city hall. City hall is a mess. I believe Dan Newman will win by at least 4000 votes.
	03/07/03	Nomad Email:
This is my home riding so let's get right to the point. Lorenzo was nominated as the Liberal candidate over a year ago and since that time he did almost nothing to get ready for the election. He didn't knock on doors, raise money or raise his profile. Someone had to take the blame for Lorenzo not working so his first campaign manager was cut lose. Since the change, Lorenzo still hasn't gone door to door and his campaign is out of cash. The truth is that Lorenzo is taking this riding for granted and it's going to cost him when Newman wins it again.
	26/06/03	Marty Email:
To the blind individual that says Lorenzo is invisible, ARE YOU NUTS? I saw him at two riding events just this past week. His team has been in my neighbourhood already and just yesterday I saw him on the news. Lorenzo is also a city coucillor that has a job to do. He wants to best serve his constits while also campaigning. As far as firing his campaign manager is concerned, "HE FOUND SOMEONE BETTER!" No harm there. Glenn Debearmaker (check spelling) has profile himself from Save the Rouge. Lorenzo 45%, The Tory 35% if he is lucky.
	18/06/03	Machiavelli Email:
I think Berardinetti is playing hide and go seek. Where has he been? Typical Liberal style of campaigning where the candidate doesn't show up to any community events. I live in the riding and I have never seen Lorenzo at a BBQ, Community Event, nothing. I guess he went to the Dalton McGuinty school of campaigning. I really like Dan, I think he is a very honest and trustworthy person. I've met him on a few occasions, he even came to my door once to chat. People in Scarborough want an MPP who they can approach...its hard to approach someone when you have never seen the guy around. Newman by a landslide.
	13/06/03	Robert Email:
This riding is a bellweather riding and a microcosm of political trends across the province. The vote splitting that propelled Newman to victory last time will not be there because the traditional NDP base here realize that the best way to get rid of the Tories is to vote Liberal. Berardinetti's appointment of award winning environmentalist and President of the Save the Rouge Foundation as his campaign manager underscores this. This along with the fact that this government is rudderless and can't make up its mind on anything should mean that the Liberals will win.
	13/06/03	Frank Email:
Dan Newman is running scarred. He is spending money on every little piece of advertising he can get his hands on and he is getting involved in municipal issues by picking fights with local city Councillors over development issues like shelters in a desperate ploy to secure votes. My sources tell me Berardinetti is well organized and ready to go if the election were called today. His experience and connection to the community are challenges that Mr. Newman has never faced before. Couple this with the fact that Ontarians want change mean Liberal victory in Scarborough Southwest.
	02/06/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
The big question now is when will we have an election. My Tory contacts tell me that the date they are looking at for election day is October 4. One of the reasons this date appeals to the Tories as it is past the deadline for candidates to file papers for municipal elections. This will put a number of Liberal candidates in a difficult position. File papers and you look like you know you can't win. Don't file papers and you're out of a job if you lose provincially. Lorenzo is one of many Liberal candidates in this situation. My Liberal contacts say they believe the Tories could call an election for as early as September 4. I guess time will tell.
	30/05/03	Political Hack Email:
Everyone knows that Berardinetti fired his campaign manager a few weeks ago. That's always a sign of trouble no matter how you want to spin it. No part of the province has been hit harder by strikes/lockouts in education than Toronto. It's going to be very tough for Lorenzo to campaign in September promising a vote for him is a return to teacher strikes and board lockouts. Toronto parents will be very pleased with an end to school wars and won't want to return to possible interruptions. This will give Newman enough of an edge to get re-elected.
	29/05/03	Marty Email:
There are no so called "problems" in Lorenzzo's campaign. The good Liberal is full steam ahead in this riding that he has actually been working hard in since last year when he began seeking the Liberal nod. Adrian Heaps gave Newman a scare in 99. The polls have changed, the Liberal candidate is much stronger and I have heard from a very reliable source that Mr. Newman himself is very stressed over this one. Eves' move to delay the vote favours the Liberal in this and every riding in T.O. as well.
	28/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
For anyone who doubted that the information I have isn't good, look back almost a month ago when I said my Tories sources said there would be no spring election. Today, it's in the papers, no election. In Scarborough South West I've been told by my Liberal contacts that there are major problems in Berardinetti campaign. There's been a change of campaign managers to try to save this riding. Lorenzo is getting a bad reputation for not being a team player. Look for Dan Newman to keep Scarborough South West.
	21/05/03	Reality Check Email:
One more reality chack for Quebec student, Grizz. Dan Newman is another Tory candidate who has been helped by the seperate school lockout in Toronto. Angry parents want an end to school disruptions and will move to the Tories in a riding like this because they like the Tory bill to end strikes and lockouts. There's a lot of trouble in the Liberal campaign and it's starting to get out. As far as the NDP goes in this riding, they have no chance. Newman will keep this riding.
	15/05/03	Grizz Email:
I disagree with El Predicto's comments on vote splitting allowing the Tory's to win. It is a real possibility but my gut is telling me that a larger chunk of the anti-Tory camp will vote Liberal to prevent a PC win. Also if it looks like a Liberal win in the days before the election (or if its a very close race), watch many soft NDP votes go Liberal at the last minute. Thats what happened in the Quebec election when it appeared the Liberals would win, soft ADQ votes shifted to them (people like to pick a winner ya know). As for the NDP, I'm sorry ARL, they really don't have a chance here. Maybe in northern Ontario...
	21/03/03	El Predicto Email:
ARL is one more New Democrat who is dreaming if they think the NDP have a prayer in Scarborough South West. Michael Yorke was a strong candidate for the NDP in 1999 and all he could get was 23% of the vote. This time the NDP have a much weaker, Barbara Warner running. Even some of the NDP's union support has decided to take a pass on the Warner campaign. They know she can't win. What Warner will do is get enough support to split the oppostion vote. That's why Dan Newman will keep this riding for the Tories.
	18/03/03	On da Money Email: ondamonay_8676686_2003@yahoo.com
Perhaps Dan Newman and Marilyn Mushinski should get together and rent a large U-HAUL truck...heading out of Queen's Park. Lefty voters in Scarborough now know better to compromise Liberally. Lorenzo Berardinetti, whose overal track record at Toronto City Hall is not as bad as people would like to point out, is in the right place at the right time.
	17/03/03	ARL Email:
If province wide NDP support gets back up to its traditional 1970s/80s mid 20s level then Scarborough Southwest which in previous incarnations elected Stephen Lewis, Richard Johnston and Anne Swarbrick comes into play for the NDP. The NDP is running Barbara Warner, daugher of former speaker David Warner, who should do better than sacrifical lamb candidates the NDP has run in recent years.
	14/03/03	El Predicto Email:
With all due respect for the previous post by Michael, people in Toronto do not think the city is well run by the mayor or council. Lorenzo has been there at city hall for all the tax increases, cuts in services and computer leasing problems. Everyone on that council will wear some of this mess. The problem for Lorenzo is that he's not strong enough on his own to overcome the mess at city hall. Dan Newman will bring up the city council record over and over again during the campaign. As I mentioned before, Lorenzo doesn't represent this area on city hall. He doesn't have a base in Scarborough Southwest to build on and that will hurt him. For all these reasons, I stand by my prediction that the Tories will hang on to this riding.
	06/03/03	Michael Email:
As a resident of Scarborough Southwest, this riding will be indicative of how the province goes as a whole. Implying allegations of corruption and graft against Lorenzo Berardinetti would be something the Tories and Dan Newman should think twice about engaging in, after all Dan Newman was Minister of the Environment during the Walkerton crisis and he is also currently a member of the Government that has adopted a policy of keeping the amount of money that the Government of Ontario has spent on using MFP as its leasing agent a secret. Dan better be wary of casting stones filled with charges of corruption against others because his actions demonstrate that he lives in a glass house. I am sure Dan wouldn't want to get cut by those pieces of glass all comming at him at once. Secondly, he claims to be on the side of seniors when he, as Minister of Long Term Care, raised taxes on those seniors living in long term care facilities by 15% and then he tried to mask this hike by spreading it over 3 years. Further more he has attempted to take credit for the funding of memorials in Scarborough Southwest honouring the sacrifices made by war veterans. The truth is this was a City of Toronto initiative spearheaded by our local Councillors. The Province and Dan did not put one read cent into these projects.
	09/03/03	David S Email:
Dan Newman has several things going for him. To begin with, the other candidates. Barbara Warner, the NDP candidate, is one of them: the Warner name carries a lot of weight in the north end of the riding, and the Libs are starting to attack the NDP, meaning the Libs are scared about the number of anti-Tory votes the NDP are going to take. This riding is prime territory for vote-splitting to occur. The Lib candidate's municipal ward is in Scarborough Centre, so there is no carry-over effect here. Many Scarborough residents are ticked at City Council for forcing us to submit to sidewalk snow removal, and the Lib was the chair of one of the committees that dealt with this issue. People will remember, especially if we have a spring election. Dan Newman has some strengths: a great constituency person, he has worked hard to maintain the man-of-the-people reputation that he has earned. The seniors adore the "nice young man" who has been opening long-term care facilities all over the province, including Scarborough. He is an enthusiastic campaigner, as are his wife and kids. Dan Newman has everything going for him, and the Libs and NDP are playing his game. Newman has a lock in Scarborough Southwest.
	27/02/03	PMK Email:
This was a close riding in 1999, but Dan Newman is one of the best MPPs in the province at working for his constituents. Couple that with the fact that Berardinetti appears to have very close ties to the MFP computer leasing scandal at City Hall and this one should stay PC. Editor's note: Yet another "Queen's Park Citizen" singing praise for a MPP
	26/02/03	El Predicto Email:
Dan Newman is one of the Toronto Tories who will be helped out the most by the recent moves made by Ernie Eves to kiss and make up with the big city. Eves wrote the city a big cheque for to help balance the books this year and now the new Municipal Affairs Minister, David Young, from Willowdale is going to bring more goodies to Toronto. One of Young's responsibilities is to make sure a Tory like Newman keeps his seat in Scarborough Southwest. Liberal Berardinetti's base is in the riding next door and that's going to hurt him at election time. Lorenzo will also lose a number of key Liberal supporters who are rushing to help his fellow city councillor, Brad Duguid win in Scarborough Centre. Add all this up and Newman keeps his job. Mark this one down for the Tories.
	25/12/02	GK Email:
I would just like to respond to Andrew Cox. I live in Scarborough Southwest and we got a $100 rebate cheque for hydro. We are quite happy with our lives and the government and see no reason to change. Albeit, we are in the eastern part of the riding but the western part of the riding is going to split between Liberals and NDPs. The NDP is going to try to win this one- that's only going to help Newman get through again with less than 40% of the vote.
	05/12/02	ATGS Email:
It won't be easy, but don't count the NDP out here. A history of strength, combined with a respectable result in 1999 (nearly double the party's provincial average) and rising support in the polls (Environics Nov 02 has NDP 22%, up 4 points from 18% in Oct 02, and up 6 points from 16% in Jul 02) could swing this riding back to the Orange. The NDP is now polling 10 points above their 1999 results -- those half a million votes need to come from somewhere, and Scarborough Southwest is one of the places that may happen.
	27/11/02	Email:
This is a very soft prediction. Berardinetti represents a riding north of this one. I don't think he's that great of a candidate. The old Scarborough West part of the riding is as close as the NDP can get to a seat they can count on. However, Dan Newman, while being a nice guy, has held cabinet portfolios that he had no qualifications for and, as a result, has looked bad. But I don't think Scarborough Southwesterners will vote him out for that. The old Scarborough Centre part of the riding is a true bellwhether riding and, as McGuinty does not have a plan, the province will likely turn to Eves once again. If that happens, Newman will almost certainly have fluked a third term.
	16/11/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Ah, how the NDP's been squeezed between a rock and a hard place. Not long ago, this was holy turf for them; even after Ann Swarbrick's 1995 defeat, they appeared the natural "default choice", and thus were the "endorsed" anti-Tory alternative in '99. But they fell to third behind the Liberals. And now with Lorenzo B. having secured the Grit nomination, it's hard to see how, through all this squeeze play, the NDP will ever score more than 9 or 12 seats again. They've become like the British Lib Dems. Still, because there is the remnants of an NDP history here, SSW is far from a shoe-in for anybody...even the beleaguered Dan Newman can squeak back in...
	06/11/02	Andrew Cox Email:
This is probably target #1 on the Liberal hit list. PCs are in major trouble here. Reasons: 1) Newman was environment minister during the Walkerton disaster. His meltdowns and panic attacks were on every news broadcast for a month. That current runs under the campaign like a trunk cable. 2) The Liberal candidate is major league, the city councilor Lorenzo Berardinetti. This is the first time the Liberals put a decent candidate up here in about, oh, ever. 3) The Liberals finished ahead of the NDP in 1999. Don't underestimate how that will influence strategic voters who just want the Tories out. The unions threw all they had behind Michael Yorke here in 1999 and finished third. They won't make that mistake again. 4) The riding is becoming less "industrial Scarborough" and more "Urban Toronto". An influx of minorities and declining union membership make this less of the NDP stronghold of the 1970s and more of a Don Valley East-like Liberal-PC fight. 5) PC support in Toronto, especially East Toronto and Scarborough, is in free fall. Newman doesn't have the profile or the personality to buck a regional trend line. 6) Ironically, the sheltering of Toronto ratepayers from Hydro rate hikes means the NDPs main issue hasn't hit the ground here yet. Most people in Scarborough are still scratching their heads on all this hydro stuff. If Eves brings in rebates before Jan 31, most TO customers won't notice Hampton's #1 issue. Liberals to take this one.
	24/10/02	I.M. Email:
The Liberals have nominated a strong local councillor as their candidate, he is wel know n and popular. He will give the Tories a run for it. The Scarborough seats held by the Tories will be heavily targeted by the Liberals.

Information Submission

Return to Toronto Regional Index
Ontario Provincial Election Prediction
© 1999-2002 Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster