Simcoe-Grey

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Simcoe-Grey

Last Update:
3:23 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
20 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Mark Redmond

Progressive Conservative:
Jim Wilson

New Democratic Party:
Leo Losereit

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Jim Wilson

Federal MP:

Paul Bonwick

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 19169

*JIM WILSON

31984 66%

NORMAN SANDBERG

12815 26.44%

MARY HART

3662 7.56%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 6 111

Paul Bonwick

22 224 44.8%

George Demery

16 113 32.5%

Bill Dunkley

8 655 17.4%

Michael Kennedy

1 646 3.3%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 123786

1996 111559

1991 99584

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 32330

20-39 31695

40-59 27660

60+ 19895

Avg Household Income
$55894

Labour Participation 67.70%

Unemployment 8.20%

Canadian Citizen
97.71%

Canadian Born 88.53%

Ontario Born 78.43%

Immigrant 11.34%

Visible Minority 1.51%

Aboriginal 0.79%

First Language

English 100030

French 2520

Residence

House 88.47%

Apartment 10.59%

Owned 77.36%

Rented 22.64%

Avg Dwelling Value $165978

Education

University 13540

College/Trade School 27065

Secondary 37500

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	30/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
An 8 point liberal swing will maybe result in Wilson getting 50 % of the vote, compared to maybe 35 for the Liberals and 10-15 for the NDP. Other posters on this page raise the point that part of this riding was represented federally by Reform Party MP Ed Harper, and in 1997 the riding almost went Reform again. Social issues such as gay marriage will hurt McGuinty almost as much as taxes.
	30/09/03	Hubert G. Guttersnipe Email: jaimek@georgian.net
As good as Redmond and Losereit are, I'm still not convinced that either will overtake Wilson. Methinks they'll just split the vote and allow Jimmy to come up the middle. I say Jim wins with a 2,500 plurality or less...
	29/09/03	Email:
The crows are coming home to roost. Jim Wilson performed poorly at the first candidate's debate, arrived late (giving the audience a taste of his Mr. No-Show persona) and looked uncomfortable and looked at the floor in front of himself for most of the evening. Especially in the south of the riding (normally his strength) he is going to be linked to and held accountable for some of the dubious dealings the local council, guided in the background by Jimmy's mentor, George McCague, former MPP, Management Board Chair, and former mayor of the municipality that comprises the major part of the south of the riding, are being chased on. One local newspaper has already come out supporting Redmond, the Liberal candidate, stating that Wilson is burned out and in need of a rest!
	28/09/03	PO Email:
As a campaign worker for Norm Sandberg in the last election, and Mark Redmond in this one, and a person who voted FOR Jim Wilson when he was first elected, I feel qualified to comment on how the last 2 campaigns have been received in the riding. The simple fact is that they are as different as night and day. This difference is most noticeable in the high degree of negativity surrounding Mr. Wilson's performance over the last term in particular. Until recently, the traditional small c conservative tendencies of the riding, combined with the political infrastructure Mr Wilson enjoyed, were enough to overcome a growing dissatisfaction with the government policy in general and Mr Wilson's poor performance as a Minister in particular. He previously would be given the benefit of the doubt or supported because of an admiration that many voters had for Mike Harris. Not this time!!! People at the door and in the coffee shops are open in their criticism of Mr Eves, and what should be of even a more major concern to those flying the Tory flag, Mr Wilson is now the butt of jokes. People who I would have fully expected to vote PC out of a sense of tradition or loyalty, have gone out of their way to publically announce their intentions to NOT vote for Mr Wilson. I do not present myself as an expert. Nor have I been in every corner of the riding. But I am observant and engaged. This is a very different election in Simcoe-Grey this time around and I suspect that the results may be very different as well. I know that Mark Redmond is experienced, hard working. principled and dedicated to making a difference. Even Tory supporters who know him agree. All of this is a recipe for a big swing in the totals from last time. It may even be enough to cause Mr Wilson to post his Resume on Monster.com.
	28/09/03	RLS Email:
I do not think some people have considered the influx of new people in this riding who are not tory. Yes it is traditionly blue but I think those days are coming to an end. I think that people in general like to be on the winning team and it looks like that will be the Liberals. Plus the fact that Jim Wilson has done very little in this riding.
	28/09/03	B A Pearen Email:
Although the polls seem to indicate the majority of voters are very upset (over health, education, auto insurance and numerous other issues)I find it hard to believe Mr. Wilson will not be re-elected. He's worked hard for "everyone" in his riding and I believe the voters have issues of concern but our M.P. is a pretty honest, hardworking and down-to-earth person. Just don't think "the baby will be thrown out with the bath water".
	28/09/03	The Pundit Email:
Mark Redmond will win as part of a Red Tide across Ontario. It's the same factor that carried Paul Bonwick to office at the federal level in Simcoe Grey which was equally as Conservative / Alliance as any seat in the Country. The core Conservative supporters have been dying of old age.
	27/09/03	Roger Email: rogersa@hotmail.com
Actually, Jim Wilson 're-affirmed' his long standing position recently on same sex marriage. He came out against it, stating that the word marriage is a sacred traditional term and that if gays want to be recognized they should come up with their own term.
	23/09/03	Scott Email:
I have voted either Alliance/Reform or Conservative in every election for a couple of decades but not this time. I think the conservatives are in for a real beating. The numbers show that Dalton's Liberals have not gained new supporters but the Tories have lost some of theirs. Why? because the so-called red neck area that Mr. Wilson governs contains many Social Conservatives who are upset with the cowardice of the Tories in regards to the same-sex marriage issue. Government is not only about how money is spent but also and probably more importantly about social structure and development. It's as if Ernie Eves has been trying to please constituents that would never consider voting for his party at the expense of the Social Conservative base that is the heart of their support. That base is angry at their flippant treatment of this issue. The fact that none of the candidates are talking about it does not mean that their social conservative constituents are not. Ralph Klien said that he would use the notwithstanding clause and Eves should have done the same. Now the PCs will loose power, not because Dalton is any better but because Eves is only a fiscal conservative and a social liberal or worse apathetic. The numbers and turnout will reflect this in this riding as well as the rest of the "Barrie Bible Belt".
	21/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
THE safest Tory seat in the whole province. If Eves performs poorly in the debate, the election with be an unmigated disaster, meaning that Wilson could end up leading the rump that will be the Tories. Unlikely-yes. Possible-yes.
	19/09/03	DL Email:
The conservatives would have to have a Brian Mulroney/Kim Campbell-esque collapse for Jim Wilson to lose this staunch tory riding. The Barrie area ridings are redneck land, and the chances for anyone other than a tory winning would be like Ralph Nader becoming governor of Mississippi.
	12/09/03	The Big Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Okay lets look at last time: PC 66%, Liberals 26%, NDP 7.5%. I'm no mathematician, but this looks like one helluva huge majority. Like something that would require a complete Tory collpase to overcome. I have yet to hear of anything like this on the news...
	07/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
The riding that was represented federally by Diefenbaker diehard Percy Nobel has usually come fairly close to electing a Reform candidate in the 93 and 97 elections. Indeed, part of the riding was in Ed Harper's constituency in 93. Provincially, Jim Wilson won during the NDP landslide in 1990 and kept it by wide margins since then. As a respected cabinet minister, this election should not be too different.
	27/06/03	L.M. Email:
Jim's latest appointment as Minister of the Environment (in addition to being Minister of Northern Development and Mines at the same time) shows the quality of the PC candidate in Simcoe-Grey. When Ernie looked around the cabinet table, and the backbenches, he chose Jim to lead one of the most pressing portfolio's the government has today. It's a compliment to his wisdom, experience, and ability to get re-elected on his own (the Premier wouldn't appoint someone to 2 cabinet posts if the guy was in trouble at all of losing his seat - that'd be just silly). On a side note: I read in the local paper that Stevenson Memorial has just announced that the emergency room will be open 24 hours a day once again - a accomplishment that Jim has been advocating for since the problem began. This seat is not only Tory Country, it's Jim Wilson Country. A strong NDP candidate will just help to ensure Jim Wilson is elected to a fourth term at Queen's Park.
	24/06/03	B.N. Email:
I am often fairly longwinded when it comes to defending my predictions, but in this case, I just want to say one thing to the several people who predicted an NDP win in Simcoe-Grey. Are you aware of the fact that Jim Wilson won with the highest % of votes (66%) of ALL ridings in the ENTIRE province, and the second highest plurality (nearly 20,000). Yet, people still predict an NDP win. Simply Astounding. With all due respect, I think when people do things like this it takes credibility away from this entire project. However much I may want my candidate to win, we have to make real predictions here, or this place just becomes a forum for exchange of meaningless propaganda. There will always be partisanship, but if you can't back up your prediction with at least a smidgen of an argument, you shouldn't be making one.
	25/06/03	C.A.Douglas Email:
Who are some of these people kidding. Mr. Wilson doesn't stand a chance on being re-elected. Haven't you noticed that he is still using a picture from his 1990 campaign. Doesn't Mr. Wilson want people to see him as he stands today, not as he did in 1990. Politics hasn't been kind to Jim. He's gained weight and looks about 20 years older than his age. Some facts being presented on this page can hardly be considered factual. Leo Losereit is well known, especially to the north, so who is that guy kidding. In fact, despite the incorrect numbers being spewed at us from all directions, Leo almost took Jim's seat away from him by just percentage points in 1990, even though Jim would like us to believe otherwise. Leo ran away with Collingwood and now that this young man has matured, married and now has two fine young sons as he represents the portrait of family life unlike Jim who has always felt he could not support a family on what he earns. I mean let's be realistic. (See the Toronto Star interview of him when Jim was Minister of Health.) Marriage Jim, is about love, not money. And if you actually listen to the people on the street, your neighbours and friends, all these people with comments on this page have lost touch with reality. Jim will not survive another election, especially in his "Alliston" stronghold. I believe Leo will take the seat this time.
	16/06/03	Hubert G. Guttersnipe Email: jaimek@georgian.net
As invisible as Jim has been, even at his own breakfasts (and a few events put on by his most ardent supporters), the Wilson name will likely carry the day - though not nearly by the same plurality of the 1999 election. And he's made sure he's attached his name to a number of local projects: Collingwood's water filtration plant, the pipeline from Collingwood to Alliston, Hwy. 26 realignment (especially now that the Tories have coughed up the extra cash to improve the highway right into Collingwood, and not leave it hanging just outside of town). The health care issue in the south - such as the lack of 24-hour emergency room services at the Alliston hospital - could hurt him slightly, but certainly not enough for Wilson to lose the election. Leo may be well-regarded, but that's only in his own municipality; he carries little name recognition in the north. However, unlike a previous poster, he'll certainly carry more than five per cent of the vote (maybe 15-20 per cent). Mark Redmond may be getting around - especially in the north - but the provincial Liberals get little respect in this riding. Even in the last election, when they put in a candidate with a little more clout against Wilson (unlike the last two victims - Gary Johnston and Jamie Shortt), they could barely make a dent in this Tory stronghold. Even in Collingwood, which the Liberals thought would sway to Norman because he was a councillor, went Tory blue for every poll. I say that Mark will do about the same as Sandberg - about 25 per cent of the vote.
	09/06/03	Craig Email:
NDP? I don't think so. They will probably finish fourth behind the Green Party here, knowing they are marginal at best in rural Central Ontario. This is among the most right-wing areas in Ontario, and while the Liberals will make gains, it will not be enough to unseat Jim Wilson, even as his party flounders. Predicted results: PC 45%, LIB 36%, Green 11%, NDP 5%.
	03/06/03	Rick Linton Email:
I think Leo is going to win it. Just wish the damn election was already called but that's okay it will give him more time to get his word out. He's the one who has come the closest to beating out Jim before and now Leo has alot more experience under his belt. He's an active community member and I see him out and about at alot of community functions including reading about him in the papers about his accomplishments as a municipal councillor. Looking forward to sending him to Queen's Park!!!!!
	31/05/03	thepraetor Email: thepraetor@hotmail.com
As much as I wish Leo Losereit well, there's no way he will win the riding. If memory serves correctly, he lost by about only 3,000 votes in 1990 when he ran second to Jim Wilson. However, this was the election when the Liberals were being thrashed, and NDP vote was up across the province. Second, the NDP usually run at 3-15% in this riding, about 3% in 1999. It is not reasonable to think they will win in the coming election, though I am sure they will do better than last time. Correction Leo Losereit lost by 1840 votes in 1990
	26/05/03	Roger Mulder Email:
All I know is that alot of people in our area are tired of Jim. He isen't competent and leaves us feeling nothing but frustrated. People are ready for a change and as far as I can tell Leo has alot of promising energy. He's been working as a councillor in his district and is finally creating an opportunity for us to discuss the current problems we have with our local health care by pushing for an inquiry into the problems with our emergency services and emergency rooms. People are getting short changed when they go to the hospital waiting long amounts of time or being sent to other area hospitals. Why hasn't Jim done the same??? I think he's got a good chance.
	27/05/03	N.W. Email:
Leo Losereit will have a lot of work cut out for him - like the last time he ran and almost beat Wilson. Many people within the riding feel disjointed from Wilson. People in the south are tired of not seeing Jimmy and the common question is "Where's Jim?". Low and behold he often phones with regrets only mere hours prior to the event. The last straw for many was his cancelation at the last minute for his very own budget breakfast- 200 people had a free meal - on the government expense account I'm sure. Hardly a representative true to his word. As for Redmond, he appears to be a nice guy, but, not a person who'll carry the day with vision and energy like Losereit will. So far Losereit's reputation for leadership, getting things done and understanding the riding will take him far.
	21/05/03	Grizz Email: grizzinator@hotmail.com
The Lake Simcoe area is much like Alberta or Texas, minus the oil and cows. They are all very right-wing and this reflects in the voting habits. What that all means is that Simcoe-Grey is a safe Tory seat.
	16/05/03	thepraetor Email: thepraetor@hotmail.com
My apologies! I said Mark Redmond was a Tory until 1998. By that, I meant he supported the Tories and Mike Harris, and is on the record for having done so. As for Mr. Wilson, I'm sure the voters of Simcoe-Grey appreciate his diligent, if phantom-like work on our behalf, especially since he had little-to-nothing to do with Honda locating in Alliston, New Tecumseth is several million dollars in debt as a result of the pipeline, and the rebuilding of Highway 26 between Wasaga Beach and Collingwood will benefit a few hundred people at the cost of $27 million. I might also note that Phase Two of this work will cause many travellers to simply bypass Collingwood. I'm sure the locals will appreciate the loss of business! However, regardless, Wilson will hold the riding.
	10/05/03	Peter Email:
I strongly disagree with the last writer. Jim Wilson is well known as one of the most astute members of Cabinet. He's straight forward, direct and honest, values that come from Simcoe County which makes him a perfect fit for re-election in this riding. He's 4th in charge (in terms of Cabinet precedence) of the province which put him in a good position to act on several initiatives for Simcoe-Grey. Including: New Collingwood Water Treatment plant, water pipeline from Collingwood to Alliston, New Hwy 26 expansion, a million dollars to the Gibson Cultural Centre in Alliston, a new water treatment plant in Alliston, a mass expansion on infastructure around Honda, which has has well over 4000 employees, millions for Wasaga Beach road infastructure to name a few. His riding got more SuperBuild project money than any other riding in the province. I'd say that's being there for his constituents.
	06/05/03	ED Email:
Jim Wilson made statements as Energy Minister that Ontario was not like Alberta or California. Ontario had a surplus of energy he said. He also has not been available for his local constituents.
	10/04/03	thepraetor (too many people know my real name ...) Email:
Jim Wilson is weak and fading as a Cabinet minister. It is highly unlikely, should the Tories be re-elected, that he will survive in Cabinet. His health and personal problems make him a disaster waiting to happen (if you ignore his performance in the Health and Energy ministries). Mark Redmond is an extremely weak candidate for the Liberals. He was a Tory until 1998 and was widely disliked as mayor in a tiny township. He also supported the government's disastrous foray into private electricity. Leo Losereit did well, once, and has little support. I could certainly see him bring the NDP a few more votes, but not likely enough to get past 5%. Look for Wilson's re-election, with a resignation sometime during his next term, assuming a Tory government. If the Liberals win, he'll likely stick around for the paycheque. Correction Notice: The Mark Redmond campaign notified Election Prediction Project indicating Mr. Redmond has never been a member of the Progressive Conservative Party.
	05/12/02	SM Email:
Hell will freeze over before Simcoe leaves the conservative column. The region is generally socially conservative, economically libertarians, and couldn't be any more in tune with Conservative ideology, unless another flood of Bay St. executives decided to build new summer home's in the area.
	30/11/02	Doug Email:
Simcoe-Grey is Tory country. It has been Conservative since confederation, and Jim Wilson should be able to countinue that tradition in the next election regardless of the provincial result.
	18/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Jim Wilson earned a better percentage than any winning candidate for any party did in 1999--and Simcoe-Grey was Reform's closest call in 1997 (though CA pratfalling and the exurban-GTA effect turned what should have been a Grit loss or speaker into a solid win in 2000). Despite a mixed cabinet record, Jim Wilson's reelection (if not his best-percentagedom)appears certain.

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