Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Sudbury

Last Update:
9:53 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
17 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Rick Bartolucci
Progressive Conservative:
Mila Wong
New Democratic Party:
Harvey Wyers
Green Party:
Luke Norton

Incumbent:
Rick Bartolucci

Federal MP:
Hon. Diane Marleau

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality10784

*RICK BARTOLUCCI
21732 58.71%

MILA WONG
10948 29.58%

PAUL CHISLETT
3891 10.51%

BERNARD FRAM
184 0.5%

ED POKONZIE
159 0.43%

J. DAVID POPESCU
103 0.28%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality13 736
Diane Marleau
20 290 58.5%
Mike Smith
6 554 18.9%
Paul Chislett
4 368 12.6%
Alex McGregor
2 642 7.6%

Demographic Profile:
Population
200179342
199686243
199187692

(1996 census)

Age
0-1920620
20-3926750
40-5921690
60+17185

Avg Household Income

$55861
Labour Participation60.10%
Unemployment12.80%

Canadian Citizen

98.23%
Canadian Born89.29%
Ontario Born79.82%
Immigrant10.58%
Visible Minority2.60%
Aboriginal3.55%

First Language
English53115
French19770
Italian3375

Residence
House58.11%
Apartment41.07%
Owned51.16%
Rented48.84%
Avg Dwelling Value$137556

Education
University14985
College/Trade School20930
Secondary24720



Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
30/09/03 WBaker 30
Email:
Begin the coronation NOW! Rarely has there been any provincial or federal candidate as loved and respected as Rick. Although not mentioned specifically by McGuinty for a cabinet position, it is believed by those in the know, that Rick may well be the next minister of Northern Development and Mines. Not a bad gig for a retired school principle from the great white north.
21/05/03 Grizz
Email:
A friend of mine in the area (who is a hard core PC supporter) thinks that the PC have a chance here. I smiled and nodded and wondered what he was smoking that day. This is a rematch from 99 and the Liberals are doing better in the polls. This will be a Liberal keep by an even larger margin. The NDP will do better than the PC but not well enough to make a dent in the Liberals.
08/05/03 Alexander Graydon
Email: puff-mcdragon@excite.com
Is there really a question about this one? The Liberal party, but more important Rick Bartolucci has nothing to fear. He is quite possible one of the best Northern M.P.P.s and continues to represent Sudbury well. I see this one by far going Liberal. I'd be surprised if the Torys are even in the running here.
04/05/03 Craig
Email:
One of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario, enhanced by the presence of Bartolucci. The NDP might try to throw some resources here, but it would be a waste. The Tories might as well concede, they have angered everyone here over the hospital delays, the Highway 69 fiasco, the weakening economy, etc. Predicted results: LIB 68% (among the largest in Ontario), NDP 18%, PC 10%, Green 3%.
23/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
As last time, Mila Wong's running for the Tories--and last time, she got but half the Liberal vote. High 20s nudging into the 30s seems to be percentile par for the conservative course in Sudbury (and in 1990, that would equal PC + CoR). It could even sink this time relative to the NDP (who hit a black hole of sorts in 1999, with the party's worst Northern result beyond Nipissing). Whatever the case, the electoral catchall named Bartolucci will moon-walk back for another term with ease.
11/02/03 Neil J.
Email:
Rick will win Sudbury quite easily. He is very visible and presents his views well. It dosen't matter how the Liberals do elsewhere because Sudburians will be thinking more of Rick than Liberal. The Liberals are quite popular here anyways too.
30/01/03 JJ
Email:
With his shameless glomming onto four-laning the 69 - wasn't that close to a done deal anyway? and Doubtin McGuinty sure didn't commit to do anything anyone else wasn't doing, or any more quickly - could Ricky B be going a bit *too* far on the publicity-seeking?
11/12/02 Craig S.
Email:
The Tories must think they sniff some potential vulnerability here; according to Northern Life, former city councillor Mila Wong and current city councillor Mike Petryna are vying for the Tory nod. Unfortunately, this riding has never been very fertile ground for Tories (current mayor Jim Gordon excepted, and that was as much a vote for him personally as for the PCs), and with a Tory victory next year looking awfully debatable, a popular MPP like Rick Bartolucci doesn't have much to worry about.
05/12/02 SM
Email:
Rick is a very strong candidate and should not have any trouble winning Sudbury. His lock on the media's attention practically makes every other Northern MPP salivate.
16/10/02 Craig
Email:
This will not even be close. Rick Bartolucci is simply too strong of a candidate in a red Liberal area, and the Tories and NDP should not even bother wasting a good candidate here. The Liberals should easily get over 50% of the vote. Rick could win here regardless of his party.


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