Windsor West

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Windsor West

Last Update:
12:08 PM 24/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
20 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Sandra Pupatello

Progressive Conservative:
Derek Insley

New Democratic Party:
Yvette Blackburn

Green Party:
Cary Lucier

Incumbent:

Sandra Pupatello

Federal MP:

Brian Masse

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 18159

*SANDRA PUPATELLO

24388 65.5%

DAVID MCCAMON

6229 16.73%

LIAM MCCARTHY

5762 15.48%

TIMOTHY DUGDALE

420 1.13%

ROBERT CRUISE

270 0.73%

LYNN TOBIN

162 0.44%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 11 952

Herb Gray

20 729 54.2%

Jeff Watson

8 777 23%

John McGinlay

6 080 15.9%

Ian West

2 116 5.5%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 117041

1996 108119

1991 102282

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 26025

20-39 36220

40-59 24140

60+ 21730

Avg Household Income
$54861

Labour Participation 61.20%

Unemployment 9.30%

Canadian Citizen
92.51%

Canadian Born 74.47%

Ontario Born 68.13%

Immigrant 24.59%

Visible Minority 15.11%

Aboriginal 1.07%

First Language

English 75670

French 2995

Italian 5920

Arabic 3065

Chinese 2680

Residence

House 66.93%

Apartment 32.74%

Owned 59.39%

Rented 40.61%

Avg Dwelling Value $131171

Education

University 21320

College/Trade School 22280

Secondary 32615

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	23/09/03	KJ Email:
I am a NDP/Green supporter, but cannot see Sandra Pupatello losing this riding. Anyone who has seen PC candidate Derek Insley in action will admit he is not much improvement over the college students the Conservatives traditionally nominate in this Tory wasteland. The provincial New Dems are hitting all the right notes for Windsor voters in this campaign, slugging away at public investment, but will not come close to matching Pupatello's personal popularity. Now that the CAW has adopted an Anyone-But-Eves strategy, Blackburn is even more of a no-hoper, but should finish a distant second.
	21/09/03	T.M. Email:
I wouldn't be so quick to make this a Liberal certainty. There's nothing to suggest that Pupatello will lose this, but guided by two MP's federally and a strong candidate, the NDP can make this riding interesting. I'm not predicting an NDP win, although stranger things have happened. To discount the NDP in this riding would be silly.
	08/09/03	The Big Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Living in a neighbouring riding, I'm in Windsor West alot. This is a liberal win without a doubt. I have yet to see a poster or add for any candidate other than Sandra. I don't see any reason why they would vote her out.
	21/07/03	John Ashton Email: ashton@johnashton.ca
It was an "Yvette Miller" who went on the "Canadian Idol TV show, not NDP Candidate Yvette Blackburn.
	25/06/03	Craig Email:
The rumor mill is grinding - and the NDP candidate might be unable to fulfill the duties due to the fact that I hear she made the show Canadian Idol. If she CAN do both, that will probably eat her alive since celebrity candidates rarely do well in politics. If she is forced off the ballot then it is wait and see. I still don't see Pupatello losing her seat but the margin should be larger if she stands, as the unions would probably back Pupatello. Predicted results: (if the rumor is true, and she stays) LIB 67%, NDP 16%, PC 10%, Green 4% (if she yields to someone with union experience) LIB 49%, NDP 33%, PC 12%, Green 4%.
	13/05/03	Josef Kunzler Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
Okay, I verified that the NDP do have a campaign office down in Windsor West - my bad. But I have to say this - the Liberals have a candidate in Sandra "Lady Churchill" Pupatello with a strong work ethic (rumor has it that she is like New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani - she never sleeps), wide and dare I say continental appeal and a good heart to front their innovative policies that now the other two parties are copying parts of theirs, the PCs with Derek Insley have a guy whom would look better running against Mayor Hurst based on his letters to the Windsor Star, and the NDP have a candidate whom is well known only in the African-Canadian community. Best guess for NOW if the election were this week based on the three candidates - Pupatello-Grit 60-70%, Blackburn-NDP 15-20%, Insley-PC 15-20%.
	10/05/03	AH Email:
Compared to Derek Insley (the PC candidate) and Yvette Blackburn (the NDP candidate), Sandra Pupatello enjoys a lot of fame (some of which negative and some of which not necessary on anything but her external self rather than what she is made of inside - supposedly the stuff of Trudeau or Churchill if you believe Josef Kunzler and I think we'll see what she makes of herself as a minister and Deputy Premier first BEFORE we pass judgment). I think the name recognition factor will be difficult for the other two to contend with - especialy if you read the volume of posts here. This riding is liberal and regarding Josef's mistake - who cares. The NDP provincially and nationally are being propped up by the union bosses - otherwise the Liberals would just take over.
	10/05/03	Grizz Email:
This being my new home riding, I see/hear alot of what people have to say. As it stands right now, the Liberal incumbant would likely win. Why? Well for one this is anti-PC territory, people would vote strategically to prevent a Tory majority (meaning they'd vote Liberal to ensure a Liberal majority). Second the incumbant seems to be liked. The NDP does have a strong showing here but my crystal ball is saying this will stay Liberal.
	06/05/03	M.S. Email:
If it weren't so funny, it would be sad to see the local NDP supporters so confused and misguided. Let's look at the facts. One posting says the NDP in Windsor West has the 8th highest membership numbers. Probably true. Let's not forget that in the NDP, the memberships are both federal and provincial combined. Let's not forget that the NDP just came out of a leadership campaign which traditionally sees inflated membership numbers. And let's not forget that one leadership candidate was in the neighbouring riding of Windsor St. Clair. And let's not forget that Mr. Comartin catered largely to the Arab community which has a solid base in Windsor West. So while there may be a large number of NDP members in the riding, it would be more than a little disingenuous to suggest those people will show up to vote NDP during a provincial election. And if the NDP really had a strong base in Windsor West, then why during a contested nomination battle did only 70 people! show up at the meeting (as reported in the Windsor Star)? Look, as hard as it may be for some local NDippers to stomach, the central campaign will put absolutely no resources into this riding. And there is no denying that Sandra Pupatello is not only hugely popular in the riding, but everyone knows that in a Liberal government she will play a key role as a senior cabinet minister. People want a change in government, and that's what Sandra represents. And let's remember that the NDP is at 15% in the polls and dropping in all the recent published surveys. The Liberals are at 45-50%. And Sandra is probably higher than that locally. Those are the facts. If I were an NDP volunteer, I'd move to a Toronto riding where they at least have a chance of holding some of their seats.
	04/05/03	Craig Email:
Pupatello - that word will keep this riding solidly in the hands of the Red Machine. The NDP are sure to make strong gains, and will make a strong effort here (along with Windsor-St. Clair which they have a good chance with), but Sandra Pupatello (probably the next Minister of Health) is too strong here. The declining Tory vote should also help the Liberals. Predicted results: LIB 50%, NDP 37%, PC 8%, Green 3%.
	04/05/03	TM Email:
I know that a lot of people on this message board do not live in the riding, and do not go out and canvass. However, the fact is that Yvette Blackburn does have a campaign office. I wouldn't read too much into the website, as, the central party doesn't have a bio up on the new site for sitting MPP's like Rosario Marchese either. You are right on one thing, you've "missed something"; the facts.
	29/04/03	Josef Kunzler Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
Regarding the last comment, I wonder whom in their right mind could claim that the Dippers have a campaign in Windsor West? While Sandra Pupatello (a.k.a. "Lady Churchill") has an official campaign website up using her name, and a campaign office - the NDP candidate has neither nor does the party website list her biographical stats. Maybe I've missed something of late.
	22/04/03	Email:
Just saw the new membership and finance numbers from the NDP. Windsor West ranks 8th in total memberships, and not too shabby in the finance column, either. If they work hard enough, I'd say Blackburn can pull it off. The Liberals just don't have a solid campaign.
	10/04/03	Josef Kunzler Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
With the renomination of Cam "Scam" Jackson, the Tories have no moral authority on PurolatorGate. Absolutely, positively, definitely none. Expect the Liberals to breathe much easier here with their candidate now scot-free :-).
	27/03/03	IanB Email:
Just because a seat is held federally by a party doesn't mean it will be held provincially by it as well. If there were, we would be looking at electing 99 Liberal MPPs come E-Day. By-election results mean nothing, as they are usually the voters' chance to express their anger with a party without actually kicking it out of power. And let's not forget the strengths of Sandra Pupatello anyway. True, she has gotten into some trouble, but the simple fact is that she's worked hard as an MPP and she's the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. The NDP should be concentrating its efforts on Windsor-St. Clair, where Dwight Duncan is in more trouble than Pupatello, because this riding has more Liberal-friendly voters. I don't think the voters will kick out a woman who has a shot at being the Deputy Premier to elect an NDP opposition backbencher.
	21/03/03	Full Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
ARL had better realize that this is not just your run of the mill riding but a riding held by a MPP, Sandra P. "Lady Churchill" Pupatello, with a strong work ethic as I've described before whom just happens to be Deputy Leader of the Ontario Liberals. If she gets into trouble, expect a full-court press from the Ontario AND Federal Liberals. I mention the federal liberals because Brian Masse got in out of outrage at Prime Minister Jean Chrietien's tossing of Herb Gray and it's a poorly kept secret she supports MP Paul Martin, Jr. for Prime Minister, whom has already seized control of most of the federal party and will come to her rescue if need be. The NDP are, bluntly, wasting their time and precious resources here with an inexperienced candidate in over her head who otherwise is a good person.
	20/03/03	ARL Email:
With Brian Masse now holding this seat federally for the NDP there will be a tremendous effort to put this seat in the NDP column provincially. Traditionally, seats that are held by the NDP federally are always held provincially as well (the opposite has not been true).
	04/03/03	Josef Kunzler Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
Contrary to popular belief, my friend Sandra Pupatello has been working awfully hard for the people of Windsor West. She has busted ectasy-distributing raves and ACTUALLY went to one at great risk to self, she has worked hard on the US-Canada Border situation, on issues of tolerance, and has worked very tenaciously for one-tier Canadian health care. All one needs to do is read Hansard to verify what I've said. I think the people of Windsor West will draw their own conclusions.
	28/02/03	Panther Email:
I know people will think I'm a little crazy, but I predict the Tories will win Windsor West by a hair! Windsor's attitude of Pupatello are polar opposites. People either love her or hate her....unfortunately for Pupatello, more people fall into the latter category than the former. The NDP support is strong here and will attract many Liberal detractors. While the two left-wing Party's fight it out, watch for the Tory candidate to squeak up the middle. The Tories in this riding have a strong "stealth-like" organization and could very well sneak in and steal this riding out from under Pupatello's feet.
	19/01/03	M.S. Email:
There really isn't a question about this one. Those who talk about the so called Purolator scandal are pretty desperate. The fact is that just about everyone in Windsor West knows who Sandra Pupatello and believe that she's fighting for them. She's everywhere you look - newspaper, radio, television, and she's a real advocate. The Tories have no hope in Windsor, and while the NDP may have one the federal by-election, that had more to do with a horrific Liberal candidate and animosity toward Chretien than anything else. Besides, the NDP don't have the resources to run solid campaigns in every riding, so if they pick one in Windsor, it will be St. Clair, not Windsor West. This is Pupatello's seat for as long as she wants it.
	14/01/03	Josef Kunzler Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
Being a let's say avid fan and dear friend of the MPP in question and some of her people, let me state that short of Sandra drinking a Gord Special (i.e. DUI), committing a felony, ticking Dalton to the point of getting expelled from caucus or dying - the seat's hers for life. She's got her priorities straight and heart in the right place and that's her flock - not herself and I have many, many examples. Moreover, she's a great orator, loved fondly by many in both Canada and America, who has been quoted even on the conservative Washington State Evergreen Foundation Website (see http://www.effwa.org/forum/education.php - "Take education more seriously"), drop-dead gorgeous looks (that always helps) and a big heart with the courage to back that up (remember the rave raid a few years back?). She also led the charge against the Toryban expense accounts and acted if I may say so with bravery, dignity and honour regarding PurolatorGate while the Toryban were incredibly indignant. A sure bet for at least the Deputy Premier and Minister of Health Portfoilos and the next Grit Leader. But to me, the question is: Can the Ontario Liberals win the whole kit and kaboodle? I believe that the answer is yes with her and no without her. She's the best thing Canadian Politics has had since a balding guy with a rose in his jacket pocket who said, "Just watch me"... Enuf said.
	05/12/02	SM Email:
I'm surprised this is still considered a likely Liberal win. I would say this is too close to call. It's more likely than not that the Liberals would win, but not by much. The NDP will give Pupatello a run for her money, that's certain, though the federal win in May should not make one think the NDP won't have to work their fingers to the bone to really be a threat to the Libs. Masse only won in May because it was a by-election. That being said, now that he'll be the incumbant, he'll hang onto it the next federal election.
	11/11/02	jcw Email:
Sandra is still very popular (regardless of the mailing thing). Provincially this seat will be held by the Liberals.
	09/11/02	ATGS Email:
It would take a lot of ducks lined up in a very straight row for Sandra to lose this seat -- but if she does it will be to New Democrats, not Tories. If the scandals continue, the Liberals run another poor campaign, the NDP nominates a strong candidate, and have a strong central campaign, they could take the riding.
	02/11/02	Craig Email:
Tories in Windsor? I thought this was a heavily unionized riding, and those strongly oppose Tory candidates. It all lies in who the NDP nominates, however. Sandra Pupatello is up for a cabinet job (Minister of Health?) and is a very high-profile candidate, but the NDP has become strong again down in Windsor (as the federal record over the last 2 years show). Expect a close race, especially if the NDP elect a strong candidate.
	01/11/02	TM Email:
The Windsor Star previously ran flattering pictures and stories about Sandra, and are now running less flattering pictures and stores about her. This is one example of how the local media in Windsor is reflecting the change in public sentiment in Windsor towards the Liberals.
	31/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
True about the federal Grit/provincial Tory pattern (and the reverse during the Mulroney-Peterson years)--but one really ought to pick a better riding than Windsor West to demonstrate that conclusion. Fact is: provincial Liberals were still elected in federal Liberal years, and provincial Tories in federal Tory years. Windsor has long been an extraordinarily weak zone for Tories, to the point where PC partisans have often strategically voted NDP in order to toss Liberal bums out. True, they were third to PC in 1999, and third to federal Reform/CA in 1993 and 2000; but NDP is really, in spirit, the Grits' "official opposition" here, and the federal byelection reaffirmed it in a deluge. So unless you're looking at a Leslie Frost-style pulverizing PC megaplurality, NDP's a more plausible winning prediction in WW than PC (though even after Brian Masse, it's still possible they might wind up third here again). And that still doesn't factor in Puppydog's now-superelevated profile, plus her whopping 50-point margin in '99, and the fact that the mailout scandal will likely prove nothing more than a little wart. The biiiiig mo is in her favour...
	27/10/02	AL Email:
I dont want to snub the grits but this is what is a recurring trend. Liberals in power federally=Tories in power provinically! Look at the numbers! The Liberals have held the most power Federally the last 100 years and look whos held the most power in Ontario these last 100 years....THE TORIES. While this election will be close, the conservatives may lose some seats, but overall will form the next government for the Reasons I have stated! People are mad at the Tories for that Hydro bondaggle, but there are a million reasons to be angry with the Federal Liberals as well! Sorry but a Liberal vote is a wasted vote!
	20/10/02	AL Email: thespartian@hotmail.com
Sandra Pupatello has done nothing for the citizens of Windsor!! Sure she dug the dirt on Cam Jackson and that 10 milltion sports deal, but many people (myself included) think our sports teams needed the aid!! Windsor citizens know that government MP's will get things done therefore I conclude taht the PC's should snatch her riding away in a real nail biter!
	20/10/02	jc Wainwright Email:
This riding is a sure Liberal bet, Sandra is a hard working, High Profile MPP and seems to be very popular. The NDP may pick up a few more votes now that they have Brian Masse as MP but I don't think it will be enough to even dent Sandra's margin of victory. I believe she recieved 65% of the vote last time around.
	18/10/02	John Ashton Email:
Pupatello's re-election bid was supposed to be a walk in the park until she recently became mired in a lawsuit/scandal involving using her Legislative services to mail out packages for friends. After Brian Masse upset the Liberals in a federal by-election, a credible NDP candidate and a lot of work could concievably give Pupatello a run for her money if this scandal doesn't blow over.

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