Election Prediction Project
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New Brunswick/Nouveau-Brunswick 2003
Provincial Election 2003 Élections provinciales

Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak

Update/Mise à jour:
1:10 PM 5/21/2003

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:27 PM 5/10/2003

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Progressive Conservative
Eric MacKenzie
Kelly Lamrock
Penny Ericson

MLA/Le député:

Federal MP/députés fédéral:
2000 Federal Election Prediction
Hon. Andy Scott

1999 Result/Résultats:

Eric D. MacKenzie

Greg G. Byrne

Pat A. Kennedy

Andie Haché

David Alexander Bowen

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Should be a tough PC/Liberal battle with the NDP bringing up the rear. From Patrick's e-mail address it is obvious he is one of those poor misguided university students being feed left-wing propaganda. For better or for worse the NDP have no chance in the province of any meaningful gains. Very traditional voters us NBers (please disregard the COR breakout in the early 90s). If the PCs lose ground on the issue of car issurance it will be to the Liberals. The NDP will be lucky to break out of their Saint John Harbour stronghold and pick up even one additional seat.
18/05/03 jimmy
This seat should go Liberal on the 9th. Lamrock has been going door-to-door since he got nominated last summer. Is likely the trounce incumbant MLA who has done nothing in 4 years until the days before the call when he suddenly decided that a clinic in Marysville was a good idea and poof it appeared. The only possible spoiler here is that the NDP candidate has been working very, very hard and could steal some votes away from the Liberals allowing MacKenzie to sneak through. I think that is rather unlikely though.
15/05/03 S Levine
Email: slev1974@hotmail.com
Patrick, I'm with you for Fredericton North, but saying that Fredericton Fort-Nashwaak will turn NDP is a stretch. It's true that the pc incumbent has been a not so admired mla! So in order to send him home the population will probably vote in large numbers for the one they think could win this thing (liberal Lamrock). He has been campagning since fall I beleive. Liberal win on June 9!
15/05/03 J.P. Kirby
Email: v5mx2@unb.ca
With all due respect to Patrick Webber, his predictions of NDP victories in half the province are akin to that guy on the 2000 federal election site who thought the PCs would win everywhere. In any event, Fort Nashwaak is one of the most weirdly drawn ridings in the province, taking in two parts of the city that really don't have much to do with each other. The small towns of Marysville and Barkers Point are balanced out by the suburban developments in Skyline Acres, Southwood Park and Lincoln. Marysville resident, incumbent Greg Byrne, did best in the northern part of the riding in 1999, while Eric MacKenzie won on the south side of the river. Kelly Lamrock, another Marysviller, is the Liberal candiate this time. The winner will be whichever can do better on the other side of the river - and right now I think it's Eric MacKenzie. He has reached out to the Marysville area in the weeks leading up to the election, with the announcement of a health centre there and his campaigning to the city for money for a bypass of highway #8. Fort Nashwaak should stay blue on election night, but, like with Fredericton North, if Shawn Graham builds up enough momentum it could go red.
15/05/03 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
The NDP winnig this seat, Disneyland is not in need of assistant right now.... Though race between Mckenzie and Lamrock, PC and Liberal fight more traditional for Fredericton... Patrick this ain't St-John......
10/05/03 Patrick Webber
My earlier prediction that the NDP would have the hardest time in this campaign is no longer held upon hearing of recent canvassing information. NDP candidate Penny Ericson has apparently been recieving some very positive feedback and secured the support of many riding residents. Moreover, there seems to be a lot of animosity towards the PC incumbent, Eric MacKenzie, and the Liberal candidate, Kelly Lamrock. Watch for a slim NDP victory in a genuine three-way race.
18/03/03 Patrick Webber
Email: gtfzy@StThomasU.ca
This will be an interesting race to watch, since it is very unpredictable. The PC incumbent won by only about 200 votes in 1999. The Liberals are running Kelly Lamrock, who seems to have many friends and enemies throughout Fredericton. The NDP is running Penny Erichson, and while it would be difficult for her to win, she may certainly influence how the vote goes.

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