Election Prediction Project
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New Brunswick/Nouveau-Brunswick 2003
Provincial Election 2003 Élections provinciales

Fredericton North / Fredericton-nord

Update/Mise à jour:
11:14 AM 5/21/2003

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:24 PM 5/10/2003

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Progressive Conservative
Peter Forbes
T. J. Burke
Dennis Atchison

MLA/Le député:

Federal MP/députés fédéral:
2000 Federal Election Prediction
Hon. Andy Scott

1999 Result/Résultats:

Peter Forbes

Brad Woodside

Todd Joseph Tingley

William Parker

Ronald Bubar

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15/05/03 Irish Observer
By all accounts a very close race. Liberal newcomer knocked off a good challenger in nomination fight, with no apparent hard feelings. Also, apparently has strong support within Saint Mary's First Nation and from some very signifigant Liberal insiders including former Attorney General Greg Byrne. Given this, and a not very strong incumbent, with a penchant for foot in mouth disease (health Nazi's) and no ones coat tails to ride on look for a Liberal squeaker here. Issues in this riding will focus on non-issues such as auto insurance (I say non-issue because it is an industry driven matter to force a government to give the industry what they want, but I digress) and language. Traditional issues such as health care and education are probably off the table with the new high school and no hospital closures in Fredericton proper. Look to an organizational fight. Forbes won on the tide in 1999 without an organization, and his organization appears to be minimal this ti! me as well. I repeat Liberal squeaker, 200 votes or less
12/05/03 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
I am sure Patrick you are a nice guy, but Fredericton North voting NDP, you've been smoking too much at the Diplomat.....unless nuclear war, will remain Tory with perhaps a Liberal fight which is very possible....
11/05/03 S Levine
Email: slev1974@hotmail.com
As for Fredericton North I must say that MLA Peter Forbes is known for speaking too quickly. A few months ago, he characterized anti-smoking advocates as "health Nazis." It's really too bad Mr. Forbes is not that vocal to defend health workers, to work against poverty, to talk against the car insurance premiums that have increased by an average of 70 percent this year. I stronly beleive that the local NDP candidate will be elected with a thin margin on June 9. He is well known and respected in the area. If he is eleted, he may even replace Elizabeth Weir after the election.
10/05/03 full name
Email: v5mx2@unb.ca
As a lifelong resident of the northside, I will tell you one thing right now: the NDP even finishing second, let alone first, is near impossible (though I do think they'll improve on their 1999 performance - I've already seen more NDP signs in this riding than I did during the entire last campaign). I have a Tory win pencilled here, but that could change as the campaign progresses. Peter Forbes' comments on smoking probably won't come back to haunt him (notice how this city forgave Andy Scott in 2000), and the majority of the "polticially correct" academics and the like who would punish him over such a thing live across the river anyway. If T.J. Burke wins this seat, it will be with the same type of momentum that put Peter Forbes in the legislature in 1999. I, for one, thought Brad Woodside was one of the Liberals' star candidates then and unstoppable at the outset of the campaign - how wrong I was. And the people of Fredericton North in general hold Woodside to a higher regard than Forbes.
26/04/03 Patrick Webber
Now that all three major party candidates have been selected, I am still predicting a New Democrat victory in Fredericton North. Incumbent PC MLA Peter Forbes has been rather ineffective according to a lot of north-siders. The only time he really made an effort to fight for the riding was a verbal assault against a Fredericton no-smoking in bars law, in which he suggested that second-hand smoke does not harm people and that the law-makers were "health Nazis". This sort of action has not gone over well with most Fredericton North residents. The Liberals, meanwhile, have picked T.J. Burke, a local lawyer, to run. While he will do well, and come in a close second, he will not be able to escape the fact that he is a lawyer. That is because the dynamic in this riding will be two lawyers (the PC and Liberal) VS. a community builder, which is the New Democrat candidate. The NDP is running Dennis Atchison, who is very well-known in the riding (particularly Devon) and has been involved in numerous volunteer and coalition building efforts over the years. He will likely be able to bring some traditional non-NDP voters around to the party, and thus secure victory. It will be a tight race, but the NDP should be able to pull it off, with the Liberals coming in second and the Tories in third.
12/03/03 Patrick Webber
The NDP will take this riding based on the strength of their candidate, Dennis Atchinson. He has been an active volunteer in the community for many years and is well known. The incumbent, PC MLA Peter Forbes, has gained a reputation for saying inappropriate things at the wrong time, while the Liberals do not even have a candidate selected yet. There is a possibility that former Fredericton mayor and 1999 Liberal candidate Brad Woodside may run, yet he would generate little excitement. It will be a tight race, yet the NDP will emerge victorious in this race.

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