Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


New Brunswick/Nouveau-Brunswick 2003
Provincial Election 2003 Élections provinciales


Update/Mise à jour:
2:48 AM 5/16/2003

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:48 AM 5/16/2003

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Progressive Conservative
Kirk MacDonald
Ray Dillon
Philip Morgan

MLA/Le député:

Federal MP/députés fédéral:
2000 Federal Election Prediction
Andy Savoy

1999 Result/Résultats:

Kirk MacDonald

David Olmstead

Sandra Burtt

Wilmot F. Ross

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15/05/03 Patrick Webber
Now that I have taken a trip out to Mactaquac (the Keswick area to be exact), I think that Liberal candidate Ray Dillon may be able to secure a narrow victory here. He seems to be winning the lawn sign war by a 4 to 1 margin, at least in the Keswick/Burtt's Corner area. Narrow Liberal victory.
10/05/03 Ex-Pat New Brunswicker
Current member very weak and lacks maturity (current claim to fame is a strong impersonation of Marty Robbins' "White Sportcoat" during a sitting of the House). Weak members are not usually a drawback in this riding which has had a succession of weak members since 1972. DAvid Bishop PC, Bob Simpson Lib, Greg Hargrove COR, David Olmstead Lib, and now Mr. MacDonald PC. The riding is fickle, not re-electing a member since 1982. Liberal challenger Ray Dillon is from a very strong PC part of riding, and has a great number of former Tories supporting him. Narrow Liberal victory.
06/05/03 Patrick Webber
Now that the Liberals have selected their candidate for Mactaquac, this race may be closer than I originally predicted. The Liberals are running Ray Dillion, who is from the Keswick area, in the south of the riding. Incumbent Kirk McDonald hails from Stanley, in the north of the riding. Thus, if geographic loyalties play any role in how the vote goes, each candidate will have their own pocket of local support to work from. It could be a close enough race that the NDP may prove to be a spoiler. Watch for a possible Grey Party candidate as well to make things interesting.
12/03/03 Patrick Webber
This riding has a tendency to change colours every election. In 1987, it went Liberal (like every other riding in New Brunswick). In 1991 it voted CoR, Liberal in 1995, and PC in 1999. That being said, it will remain in the Tory camp this time around. Kirk MacDonald (PC) beat incumbent David Olmstead (Liberal) in 1999 by a 2:1 margin almost, and he will likely not fall victim to whomever the Liberal challenger is.

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