Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


New Brunswick/Nouveau-Brunswick 2003
Provincial Election 2003 Élections provinciales


Update/Mise à jour:
11:12 AM 5/21/2003

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:25 AM 5/15/2003

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Progressive Conservative
Dennis Campbell
Dr. Larry Kennedy
Harvey Bass

MLA/Le député:

Federal MP/députés fédéral:
2000 Federal Election Prediction
Andy Savoy

1999 Result/Résultats:

Dr. Larry R. Kennedy

Carman Cecil Pirie

Carter Charlesdgar

Amy Dunham

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21/05/03 jimmy
I have to change my mind from Liberal to too close on this one. The NDP has announced that local optomitrist and chairman of the area 'save our hospitals committee' is running for the NDP. The NDP usually does terribly here because they have no candidate and the party office runs a staffer just to have a full slate of candidates. The last time there was a 'real' candidate, in 1991, the NDP got about 15% of the vote. Dr. Bass is a far stronger candidate than was the case in 1991 so it is conceivable that the NDP could get 20+% but certainly at least 10-15... this could be enough to split the vote and allow the PC candidate to sneak through.
16/05/03 Patrick Webber
Dr. Kennedy is a popular MLA who survived both the rise of CoR in rural Anglophone New Brunswick during the early 1990s and the Lord tidal wave of 1999. With a general voting shift to the Liberals and NDP in this election, Dr. Kennedy is a safe lock for the Liberals.
15/05/03 JS
I've changed by prediction to a Liberal hold, because Kennedy is a popular MPP and although the gap between him and Perie was small, he should be able to increase his majority as he is popular, and gap's seem to be small between candidates in New Brunswick elections anyway.
13/05/03 J/S.
Too close to call. The gap between Kennedy and Pirie was only 6% and it looks to be as close this time round. The federal M.P is a Liberal, so that might swing it their way but...
12/05/03 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
Dr Kennedy will be return fairly easily this time, he is well liked and has repesented well the people of Victoria-Tobique.

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