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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:41 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:38 PM 14/03/2004

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Dody Crane
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Baird Judson
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Will McFadden
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Shawn Murphy
Darren Peters

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hillsborough (96.4%)
Hon. Shawn Murphy
Malpeque (3.6%)
Hon. Wayne Easter

2000 Result/Résultats:
7,427 42.56%
5,270 30.20%
3,725 21.35%
899 5.15%
129 0.74%

(82/90 polls, 26032/29410 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(5/76 polls, 974/25234 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Mike D
This will be an election night shocker. I've heard several rumours about an NDP win here. Shawn Murphy is having to wear the Adscam scandal. The anti-Liberal vote will go to Crane who is better known than the Conservative. A few weeks ago someone destroyed or stole hundreds of Crane NDP lawn signs. Police are investigating what appears to be an organized effort. That doesn't happen unless someone feels threatened.
24/06/04 Ryan Pollard
Email: [hidden]
Huge sign war here. the only signs that consistently disappear are NDP, meaning there are some super-anxious poll captains that smell the gravy train leaving the station. Serious vandalism also, with people taking box cutters to signs within feet of bedroom windows. The NDP-Liberal-CPC sign ratio (on private property, not including KNOWN Liberal landlords that put signs in front of all of their buildings) is 5:3:1 by my count.
Meanwhile, media outlets that sense an upset are paying particular attention to Dody's campaign, including CBC, Global and CPAC.
24/06/04 DC
Email: [hidden]
The sign war would indicate that there is a full-scale two-way battle between Murphy and Crane.....and I think this will work into Darren Peters' hands. The splitting of the left-wing vote, which I believe will be responsible for electing a Conservative government on June 28th, will give Charlottetown to Darren Peters.
25/05/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
I've finally decided to make my prediction about Charlottetown, my home town and where I'll be voting. At first, I figured it was a Liberal lock, and that no more comment was needed. I'm making a biased NDP prediction, a neutral observer would at least concede that Charlottetown will not be a walk for anyone. Here are some of my reasons:
(1) Dolores Crane was made the official candidate for Charlottetown tonight. She has kept up a high profile between campaigns, with, for instance, regular media appearances as part of political panels.
(1)(a) Darren Peters, to my knowledge, has no public profile except within Tory circles. If someone has something concrete to counter this, then I withdraw the observation.
(1)(b) Shawn Murphy is perhaps best known for shutting down the Public Accounts Committee inquiry into the sponsorship scandal. Whatever the substantive meaning of such, it does not look good.
(2) A sizeable minority of rank and file Liberals were Copps supporters. They are dismayed at the purge of all moderate Liberals from cabinet, and in particular, the ingracious treatment Copps was made to suffer from. Charlottetown gained a lot from the Heritage department while she was in charge, and people felt loyal to her. One such Liberal dissenter--a campaign manager for a successful provincial candidate--went so far as to approach the NDP about running for them federally. He was going to bring over all his poll captains as well. A change in career made it necessary to move to Alberta, so he did not contest Dody's nomination. Whether some Liberals openly support the NDP, or merely sit on their hands this election (more likely), and in the light of Murphy's inability to improve on Proud's 41%, and in the light of the general decline in Liberal fortunes generally (admittedly less so in the East), all seem to indicate loss of ground for Murphy. (sorry, that was a long sentence!)
(3) There is less of a civil war in Conservative ranks. Islanders are ambivalent towards a federal party lead by Harper (all four ridings, I believe, supported Stronach). They are mostly just glad that the provincial party is unaffected (still "progressive" in name, I guess). The mood I hear from rank and file Tories reflects the statements by Joe Clark, that there isn't a real choice between Martin and Harper. In the past, Tories who were protesting, and couldn't stomach voting Liberal, have voted for Crane (this was the case in 1988 and 1997) as an NDPer.
I had a list of a bout 10 points, but I'll leave that for folks to chew on. This is a true 3-way race, but I put my money on Dody.
08/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
While I did leave the party, I still know some of what's going on, and I can safely say that Dr.Dickieson is NOT running in Charlottetown. My guess is Dody Crane runs again (roumer is she'd run in Cardigan, but the NDP already has a candidate there) she will do well.
The CPC does not seem to be appealing to PEIslanders as much as New Brunswickers. Harper took less votes on the Island then anywhere else in Canada. I am thinking more and more the NDP will finish second here.
There is also a persistant roumer one of Layton's friends, Pamela Large-Moran will run here, if this happens, the NDP may target the riding, and if the Mr.Large-Moran is centrsit enough not to scare off anti-socialists, they may upset, but I doubt it.
05/05/04 Olive_Branch
Email: thedevilthedevil@hotmail.com
If former provincial NDP Leader Dr. Herb Dickieson runs here, the NDP will make history winning their first ever seat in PEI. Dr. Dickieson is the most high-profile person who could represent the party here and now is perhaps the beginning of a new period of steady growth for the NDP in federal politics.
26/04/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
If Dolores Crane runs again, she might end up the beneficiary of unprecedented political movement on the federal scene. Normally I would sooner be announcing the discovery of life on Mars than I would an NDP victory on PEI, but Crane has done remarkable well here in the past two elections, and with the ground beginning to crumble under the Liberals, while the reformatories are led by a westerner who is on public record disrespecting the Maritimes, it possible, just maybe, that a strong NDP national campaign could end in a unprecedented result here. Not betting the farm on it, but filing it under "Possible surprises" for 2004.
20/03/04 mini phreek
Email: [hidden]
now that harper has been elected as Tory leader, the CA take over sinario could be a posibility on discuraging conservitive voters. especially since harper only got 1/3 of conservative votes here yesterday. the liberals will lickly take this ridding but if the NDP strangthens there suport just a little, this will be a 2 way race, and if somthing happands to the liberals here during the election, the NDP could come on top.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is the safest Liberal seat in PEI. We agree with some of the other postings that the NDP will do very well, but not likely enough to win the seat. Though as far as we're concerned, this is the only one that can safely be said to be liberal...for now at least.
15/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I ran in this riding as a provincial candidate for the NDP, and have to agree with mr.webber, this riding will go Liberal. The NDP will do well here, and split any anti-liberal vote. I would not be surprised, if the Conservatives run a weak candidate, for the NDP to finish second in this riding.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
Both the Conservatives (that is, PCs) and New Democrats have been able to field relatively strong candidates here in 1997 and 2000. That being said, I think the Liberals will hold Charlottetown. Maybe something could happen, but it is likely that Charlottetown will go Liberal (along with the rest of PEI) again on election night.

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