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Cape Breton-Canso
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:39 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:06 PM 14/03/2004



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Rodger Cuzner
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Seumas Gibson
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Shirley Hartery
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Kenzie MacNeil

Population 2001
populations
75,221
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
58889

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bras d'Or-Cape Breton (90.4%)
Rodger Cuzner
Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough (9.6%)
Peter MacKay

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
21,200 53.59%
9,291 23.49%
7,469 18.88%
1,558 3.94%
OTHERS
42 0.11%

Bras d'Or-Cape Breton
(177/188 polls, 53243/55464 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
19579
1373
7099
7725
OTHER
0

Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough
(32/217 polls, 5646/58861 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
1621
185
370
1566
OTHER
42



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24/06/04 Mike D
Email:
A weak Liberal incumbent will be taken down by a strong NDP candidate. Outside of Halifax, NDP resources in NS are aimed towards getting Hartery elected. NDP phonebank has this targetted and is getting excellent results, I hear.
23/05/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
E. Andrew Washburn is very likely correct in his analysis of this riding, but I don't think he's right about the NDP in the rest of Nova Scotia. The so-called "bubble" of 1997 might have been largely attributable to support for Alexa in Atlantic Canada, but since then the NDP has become a legitimate political force in its own right in Nova Scotia (but not elsewhere in the Maritimes). On the provincial level there is a fully functioning 3-party system, the only place in Canada where that is currently true in fact, and the provincial NDP is a credible party with credible leadership and policies. It is no longer reliant of Alexa MacDonough's coattails to sustain itself any longer. The Liberals will win here, but will not have an easy victory (if at all) in urban-industrial Cape Breton, where a good candidate can win Sydney-Victoria for the NDP, and on the Mainland, they are likely to lose Kings-Hants to the Conservatives, and Halifax West to the NDP.
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Thank you voice of the common man, or should we say Captain Obvious, for that explaination. I'm sure that none of us who frequent this site know how parliamentary proceedings work. Perhaps it was our fault for not being more explicit. So to clairify: Cuzner was heckled and was so shaken that he could not continue (the speaker did not intervene yet). He muttered something about "Being sorry" and the speaker then moved on to the next question. The next day he tried again, and with much Liberal fanfare he was able to ask the question. This speaks volumes of him in our opinion! If he can't even ask a simple question to his own party in question period, how can he handle bigger issues? Perhaps he gained some courage over the last few years but we wouldn't know because he has been a faceless backbencher. Bottom line, a lack-luster MP who will win his riding simply because he's part of the liberal party. It's very sad to see when in other parts of the province and country, two or more candidates with much more potential will fight it out for a single seat.
19/05/04 Evan
Email: eva_coole@hotmail.com
E. Andrew Washburn is slightly mistaken in his analysis. The Yukon only has one seat which the NDP only lost by seventy votes in the last election. Nova Scotia has the highest percentage of NDP MPs of any province plus they form the official opposition provincially (Doesn't necessarily mean federal victories but still is a good sign). The NDP has a real chance to win some seats this election and I think Roger Cuzner may be looking for work soon.
16/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Atlantic Canada, and specifically Nova Scotia is the one area the NDP will have a hard time with. Alexa McDonough is no longer leader, so we will definitely see what I like to call the "Yukon" effect. This is where the NDP support will disappear in an area a couple elections after their leader is gone from it. It has already begun in some areas of Nova Scotia, like in this riding. The NDP should be able to keep their 17%, but results will be similar to the 2000 election for the other parties as well. Maybe a decrease in Liberal votes, but not enough for them to lose.
15/05/04 Evan C
Email: evan_coole@hotmail.com
Shirley Hartery beat Michelle Dockrill for the NDP nomination. She has an excellent background in social justice and she's a strong speaker which could tip things in our direction.
11/05/04 Jack
Email: [hidden]
As has been suggested below, there is a trend in this riding to oust incompetent MPs, which has been done several times in recent History. Cuzner has lost his glimmer, as he has accomplished very little, and with the eminent loss of 850 jobs at Stream, one of the largest employers in the riding, he is sure to loose support from the core of the riding. If the NDP is able to choose a good candidate, who is competent, they stand a chance at ousting the Libs again. Cuzner is in trouble.
10/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Another Cape Breton seat, another incompetent Liberal M.P... except that unlike his Sydney-Victoria conterpart, Cuzner seems safe...
Cape Breton-Canso is the Liberal part of Cape Breton... provincially the only seat not held by an NSLib is Inverness (held by PC MLA Rodney MacDonald).
Unlike Sydney-Victoria, Cape Breton-Canso includes only a very small part of NDP leaning Industrial Cape Breton, although it does include a small part of the Mainland (Canso... which is part of a three-way marginal seat provincially), but overall neither the NDP or the CPC *should* win here...
However, Cuzner is a terrible M.P and protest votes *do* happen here (just ask David Dingwall) so a Grit victory isn't certain by any means... if another upset happens, it's most likely to be the work of the Dippers, as the CPC are seen as wanting to privatise healthcare... not a very popular idea in a riding as poor as this one.
04/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email:
"We can remember one time, he stood to ask a question and when heckled, he sat down and lost his chance at speaking. Doesn't say much for an MP."
ALL MP's have to do this. There was too much noise, the Speaker rose to restore order, and when the Speaker rises, the MP has to be seated. It doesn't say anything about him.
This riding as redistributed was the strongest Liberal seat in NS and the only one with an absolute Liberal majority. (The other CBI seat was 49.99 percent Liberal). The CPC would have to make up over 26 points from the combined PC/CA total in 2000, and the NDP almost 35, in order to snatch this seat away from Cuzner.
Liberal Hold.
01/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The NDP shock-defeated David Dingwall in 1997, but with a candidate so not up to the job that she was humiliated into a poor third in 2000 as Cape Breton reassumed its Grit status quo. In fact, this is the more Conservative-friendly CB seat, thanks to the rural interior (and now, a chunk of the mainland as well--spliced in from Peter MacKay's seat, yet); and provincially, Cecil Clarke's even carved out a token urban PC bastion in North Sydney. If the Conservatives were running at 1984 Mulroney levels and Clarke were their candidate, they'd stand a good chance of taking this riding. But the way things stand, a 1997-style NDP surge is more likely--and then only barely so. Even though Cuzner's more "defeatable" than Dingwall. But I smell a resigned status quo, and at worst against a split opposition...
30/03/04 Medman
Email: [hidden]
Political masochism is not as salient in this riding as it is in neighboring Sydney/Victoria. There haven't been as many promises broken here as in the "Tar Ponds" and "Health Care" issues. However, genetic voting (see post 29/03 Sydney/Victoria) applies just as strongly here as it does next door. If there are only two Liberal seats left in N.S. when the tally is done, they will be the two Cape Breton Incumbents.
23/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is the safest Liberal seat in Nova Scotia and Cuzner will be re-elected. Unfortunate though, we feel he is probably one of the weakest MPs in parliament. We can remember one time, he stood to ask a question and when heckled, he sat down and lost his chance at speaking. Doesn't say much for an MP.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Looking at the re-distributed results, I think the election night result is obvious. The part of the riding coming from Bras d'Or-Cape Breton voted for the Liberals first, and PC Party second. The part coming from Mr.Mackay's riding of Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough, voted for the Liberals first, and the PC's second. I think that the tories will not do as well here as they did last time, but the NDP will do better. It will not be enough to defeat Mr.Cuzner
28/02/04 Patrick Webber
Email:
Rodger Cuzner is perhaps the safest Liberal in Nova Scotia. Even if some of his vote goes to the NDP, it will be compensated by old PC votes going Liberal. Liberal hold.


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