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Saint John
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 11:53 AM 6/18/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 8:50 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Terry Albright | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Jonathan Cormier | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Bob McVicar | ||||||
| Independent: Tom Oland | |||||||
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Parti Marijuana Party: Jim Wood | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Paul Zed | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Fundy-Royal (16.1%) John Herron | ||||||
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Saint John (83.9%) Elsie Wayne | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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19,236 | 49.05% |
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11,829 | 30.16% |
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4,099 | 10.45% |
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3,421 | 8.72% |
| 635 | 1.62% | |
Fundy-Royal (36/195 polls, 10459/55106 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 2581 | |
| 1201 | |
| 474 | |
| 2904 | |
| 0 | ||
Saint John (164/167 polls, 54377/54467 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 9248 | |
| 2898 | |
| 2947 | |
| 16332 | |
| 635 | ||
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13/06/04 | DS Email: nbyla_drew@hotmail.com | |
| With two weeks to go in the campaign, Liberal candidate Paul Zed seems to be poised to capture this seat. The NDP's only hope for Saint John was for local star Elizabeth Weir to leave provincial politics and run federally; this did not come to pass. The Conservative candidate, Bob McVicar, is a lackluster entry in the race; however, he may benefit from the fact that there are two men by that name in Saint John, and the other Bob McVicar is a much-loved local Scoutmaster and volunteer. If SJ voters can keep the two Bobs straight, though, their candidate will not garner much support. Paul Zed is a former MP for the neighbouring riding of Fundy-Royal; he is a well-known local businessman/lawyer. Look for a Zed win. | |||
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13/06/04 | not displayed or 'best guess' Email: [hidden] | |
| Although there is a Liberal leaning in the riding due to several factors including a closely contested nomination and a change in the constituency boundaries to include more of the suburban community in which the Liberal canidate lives, there are significant PC roots among older voters in City portion of the riding, a historical Tory vote in the suburban part and a desire among in the business sector to have a member in government. The latter may lead to 'strategic voting' and therefore a shift if the polls continue to suggest a Conservative government. Perceived trends toward a Liberal or Liberal minority will tilt the vote to the Liberals with a close win for Liberals. | |||
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10/06/04 | Roy Email: [hidden] | |
| Paul Zed won both nomination conventions in Saint John, in fact the second one had 3700 registered delegates...the largest in the party's history in NB. Both he and Doherty recruited more Progressive Conservatives than attended the Conservative/Alliance candidate convention for McVicour who is widely unpopular in the city as he was defeated twice for mayor and once for city council. He is not seen as a Saint Johner having moved there only 9 years ago. Zed has an unusual coalition of Unions(municipal outside workers,police and fire depts for the city all have endorsed Zed)and also the new Mayor and council of both Saint John and Rothesay reportededly are backing Zed.Zed will win easily because of his voulunteer base especially youth and Seniors .He and his family have deep traction in the community as volunteers . Globe and Mail put this riding on the top 10 to watch for change and PM Martin showed up there on day 1 of the national campaign and was noted with good comments in the National Post. | |||
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01/06/04 | RWA Email: | |
| Atlantic Canada is the one area of the country where Liberal support is not tanking. With Weir not running for the NDP, this riding will go to Zed. | |||
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28/05/04 | R.J. Email: rjk@ca.inter.net | |
| My colleagues at UNB have just informed me the NDP nomination was won by Terry Albright last week. The wildcard player for this riding, NDP stallward Liz Weir (and MLA for SJH) is out of the picture. Now the riding is a two-person race between former MP Paul Zed and perennial, losing conservative candidate for mayor, Bob McVicar. With Elsie Wayne gone as a local populist, I predict Paul Zed with benefit from name recognition and past federal experience. He will be the one wearing the "evil elf" [of Saint John] costume at this year's Liberal Xmas party in the tradition of Mrs. Wayne. However, he’ll only win by a margin of about 500-1000 votes. | |||
| 28/05/04 | Rigs Email: [hidden] | ||
| Liberals hurt their chances significantly when they chose Zed over Doherty. McVicar for the Tories would be an excellent member, but I have doubts about the effectiveness of his campaign. NDP has no chance to win but could play a spoiler. This one will be decided by the national trend, it would be Liberal today were it not for the Eslie factor. | |||
| 11/05/04 | J.P. Kirby Email: v5mx2@unb.ca | ||
| Yes, even if Weir doesn't run the NDP will win, because they just did so well here in the last election (sarcasm). The fact is if your name isn't Weir or Godin, you're not going to get elected in New Brunswick if you're an NDPer. That said, I have no clue who's going to win this one. If Elsie stayed on, it's over. Saint John is historically Tory country, but not so much as the rural areas around it. Paul Zed (who ran and won in Fundy-Royal in 1993) has arguably better name recognition than Bob McVicar, and anger over Adscam hasn't really hit the Maritimes as much as it has elsewhere. The one local factor that could tip it one way would be the Liberal nomination debacle. We'll wait and see how the campaign turns out. | |||
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10/05/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| the NDP needs to nominate weir here soon if they intend to get going. Municipal elections are on the 10th, and I think that the political staff will switch to federal level, and the election starts in NB, then. Unless the NDP gets in with weir within the next week, she will not win even if she wins. The tories have a strong history here going back to 1867. Paul Zed is not strong enough to defeat them, and if the timing is not right, Weir is not either. | |||
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03/05/04 | the analyst Email: [hidden] | |
| Now that Paul Zed has won the Liberal nomination, it is likely that this seat will stay blue. If Elizabeth decides to run for the NDP it will almost certainly be an NDP gain with a lot of Liberal vote bleeding left. | |||
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03/05/04 | John Case Email: [hidden] | |
| After spending more than a decade in a politcal vacuum, and with the Liberal party polling higher than they have in awhile, even post sponsorship file, the city of Saint John seems ready to finally vote onside with the government. After the close of the second nomination convention with a turn out of over 3500 people, its evident that Liberal support is higher here than it has ever been. The conservatives lack a strong candidate, although Bob McVicar has a decent profile in the city, the maritimes distrust of the new conservatives and his several failed attempts at mayor hamper his ability to launch a strong credible campaign. The major wildcard at this point is the NDP candidate, if it's not Weir, then the NDP will have little significant impact on the race and the liberals will pull in a strong victory, if it is Weir then we may see another case of Elsie syndrome, a disease characterised by the electorate voting for a "real fighter" who sure will irritate the sitting government. So in closing my predictions, Paul Zed will take the riding, assuming Elizabeth Weir doesn't become a factor, if she does its going to be a two horse race. | |||
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26/04/04 | RP. Email: [hidden] | |
| There are only a few NDP centres in N.B., and this is one of them. Whether or not Weir runs herself, knowing how the party is run here, it'll be a hand-picked darling. Whoever runs will enjoy all the support that can be mustered from the provincial party. | |||
| 26/04/04 | the analyst Email: [hidden] | ||
| This could turn out to be a rather interesting race. The Liberal nomination is being re-organized after the previous results were over turned. Zed is likely to be renominated, and if so, will likely be defeated in the election. If Ed Doherty gets the nomination, the Liberals stand a good chance to pick up this seat. On the other hand, Saint John Harbour MLA & NB NDP Leader Elizabeth Weir is being touted as a possible NDP candidate. Sources say that she will run for sure if the election is delayed beyond the spring, and will likely run regardless if Zed is the Liberal candidate. An election with Doherty & Weir as candidates would likely lead to a Tory win as they would both draw from the same base. So, there are a lot of what ifs, but here are my predictions under various scenarios: - Zed as Liberal candidate, Weir not NDP candidate: Conservative win. - Doherty as Liberal candidate, Weir not NDP candidate: Liberal win. - Zed as Liberal candidate, Weir as NDP candidate: NDP win. - Doherty as Liberal candidate, Weir as NDP candidate: Conservative win. | |||
| 24/04/04 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | ||
| The ultimate proof that this is more an "Elsie Wayne" than automatically Tory riding was 1988, where in his last election, the PCs' Gerry Merrithew won by a smaller margin than Elsie in '93. (And you can blame the Liberals in part for Elsie's '93 win, as '88's Liberal candidate ran as an independent that year, thus splitting the opposition.) Of course, Saint John is an *old-school* (i.e. Stanfield-and-before) Maritime Tory bastion; which means that were it not for Our Lady Of The Loud Sweaters, it might have been more of a free-for-all this past decade--especially given its urbanity, which makes it a plausible post-Elsie/post-Alexa NDP pickup as well, Liz Weir or no Liz Weir. But most of all, it's the classic Maritime seat where the Martin Liberals are screaming bloody paydirt, eager to exploit both the Elsie vacuum and presumed "lazy" Maritimer revulsion at the now ReformAlliancized Conservative Party of Canada. And who better than ex-MP Paul Zed? Problem is, Zed's got his own generalized association with the kind of Liberal hackery that could spell trouble post-Adscam (shades of which helped soundly defeat him in Fundy-Royal in 1997). If the Liberals *really* wanted to cinch Saint John, they would have run Frank McKenna here. And it might have worked, too. | |||
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22/04/04 | RWA Email: | |
| The Conservatives could have held this if Elsie had run or if the Liberals' fielded a weak candidate. Neither has happened. Zed will win unless Weir runs for the NDP, which would make it a competitive three-way race. | |||
| 23/04/04 | S. Moore Email: [hidden] | ||
| Paul Zed is no longer the guaranteed nominee. An appeal by Ed Doherty, who lost to Zed by 26 votes, alleged irregularities and improper voting by some of Zed's teenaged supporters. It's been accepted and a new vote is being organized. Obviously, Doherty's team weren't willing to rally around Zed after the close vote, so the Liberals in SJ may end up divided no matter which one of these two ends up winning the chance to take on McVicar, the Tory. | |||
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25/03/04 | DC Email: [hidden] | |
| Paul Zed has been nominated in Saint John as the Liberal candidate. He has experience and I think will be very difficult to beat. He has name recognition from his previous run, and Saint John is in need of a member who can get things for the city. Ie, someone on the government side, or even in Parliament. | |||
| 20/03/04 | S. Moore Email: [hidden] | ||
| With Elsie gone, the Liberals do have a chance in SJ. Saint Johners like strong personalities (Elsie, Liz Weir), so Zed has a shot. That same personality rubs some people the wrong way, though, and his family ties to the Irvings could be a double-edged sword. Don't know enough about trade board president McVicar to say whether he'd be compelling on the Tory side--maybe he'd get a boost among the seniors if Elsie agreed to campaign with him. Both Shawn Graham and Bernard Lord would be happy to usher Weir out of the Leg in hopes of a by-election gain (her seat's a Weir seat more than and NDP seat), but I'll be surprised if she jumps in. Too early to tell at this stage, before we know the candidates. | |||
| 19/03/04 | Elly Mae Email: [hidden] | ||
| This will be a dogfight. Wayne's personal popularity kept this in the Conservative column, but with her gone the Liberals are going to go all out for this seat. The x-factor here is whether or not the NDP prevails upon Elizabeth Weir to leave provincial politics to run here. If they do, then she becomes the odds-on favorite to take it in a 3-way race. | |||
| 19/03/04 | syllap Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com | ||
| although St-John is Tory, this was an Elsie riding more than anything else...This seat is wide open and no candidates have announced officially...so it is wait and see for the moment...... | |||
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18/03/04 | DC Email: [hidden] | |
| If Paul Zed is nominated next week as the Liberal candidate, this riding will fall into Liberal territory. With the Wayne Factor gone, Saint John will want an MP who can get things done for the city. | |||
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17/03/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| Lets think about this. In '93 the Conservatives were obliterated and only two ridings elected a PC MP...this was one of the two. Granted Elsie Wayne's popularity played a roll (she is on out top 10 favorite MP list) but look how most of southern New Brunswick votes right. Conservative hold. | |||
| 17/03/04 | MJ Email: | ||
| I agree with the previous two, I think if Weir wants this riding, it's hers, now that ol' Elsie is retiring. If Weir doesn't run, I'd say it all depends on the candidates. | |||
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16/03/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| Going all the way back to 1867, you find that this riding usually votes Conservative. While Mrs.Wayne did get a fair bit of personal votes, I feel that some of the votes were for the party as well, and they will follow the party to whichever candidate they chose. The NDP will do well here, and that will hurt the Liberals. IF Mrs.Weir runs for the NDP, I'd say the riding is as good as hers, but as of now, that's not happening. | |||
| 27/02/04 | Patrick Webber Email: | ||
| With Elsie not running again, this eat is wide open. Saint John voted for Elsie in 1993, 1997, and 2000, not for the Tories. The Liberals may have a shot at taking this seat if they pick the right candidate and the Tories select a weak challenger. If NB NDP leader Elizabeth Weir were to run here federally, then the NDP would be victorious. | |||
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