Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:48 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:56 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Carole-Marie Allard
Bloc Québécois:
Robert Carrier
Yves Desbois
Benjamin Le Bel
Régent Millette
Rosane Raymond
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Louis-Philippe Verenka

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Laval-Est (100.0%)
Carole-Marie Allard

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,452 45.27%
21,807 42.09%
2,224 4.29%
2,038 3.93%
2,288 4.42%

(202/222 polls, 78713/86612 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Je change ma prédiction et me rallie au caractère baromètre de Laval en ce qui concerne le vote francophone. Victoire bloquiste donc, mais serrée.
24/06/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
I spent some time in Alfred-Pellan this past weekend, and if signs are the barometer of judging who's going to win, Carole Marie Allard has it in a landslide. The new development that borders Pie IX Nord has Allard signs on almost every lamp post. It's a sea of red.
However, That neighbourhood is primarily Italian. Though Italians make up a large part of the riding's population, the Francophones in St. Vincent de Paul, St Francois etc may well have the final say and put Robert Carrier over the top. Roseane raymond of the Conservatives has a visible presence, and if she can take some federalist votes from Allard, the Bloc could take this one.
Worthy of note, The Bloc probably did not expect to be able to take this one at the outset, since they have B grade, small signs.
This one is still a toss up, and though Mme Allard has the signs, I give a slight advantage to the Bloc on account of the anger at Adscam.
10/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We feel that Victor A has hit the nail squarely on the head with his assessment. The Liberal incumbant's popularity could be her saving grace, and compairing Laval East to Hochelaga or Rosemount just doesn't jive. Where we disagree with Victor is on just how mad the voters are with the Liberals. It's not inconcievable that the Liberals could lose some popular MPs due to this anger. We still feel that this riding is way too close to call. We'll keep sitting on the fence for now.
10/06/04 sam
Email: samuel_541@hotmail.com
Avec le coup de pouce de sheila copps ceci ne feras pas de tord a Mme Allard. un compté pour le PLC
23/05/04 Ralf
Email: [hidden]
Laval est une région (à l'exception de l'extrême ouest) baromètre. Les intentions de votes là-bas varient selon la tendance nationale. Actuellement, le BQ domine dans les sondages et sa campagne sera probablement prudente, comme celle de 2000.
Je prédis une victorie au BQ.
En effet, ce comté en est un baromètre; il change selon qui l'emporte dans les sondages. Actuellement, le Bloc domine dans les intentions de votes et Duceppe ne fera pas de gaffe cette fois-ci. Le BQ sera prudent en 2004...
15/05/04 Victor A.
Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.ca
Andrew, you are forgetting the fact that personal popularity comes into play as well. At the same time, let me inform you that eastern Laval is nothing like the South Eastern Montreal ( Hochelaga, Laurier, Rosemont etc.. I mean the current Bloc held sits in Montreal ). Carole-Marie Allard is among the most popular and the most liked member of the Liberal party in Quebec, think about that.. how come Laval Center which is less francophone than Laval East has voted in the year 2000 for BQ and here Mme Allard won...personal popularity and her credentials are the answer. She has one of the best CVs among Quebec Liberal mps. My second point is that Eastern Laval is a suburb rather than a typical Montreal neigborhoood. It is a very middle class area, which does not benefit the Bloc given the fact than Bloc is more often supported by poorer and less educated/afluent people. People in places like Eastern Laval usually are way better off than the South Eastern Montreal and are better educated. The fact that the riding is 85 % Francophone and only around 5 % Anglophone does not meat it'll vote for the BQ. The ethnic vote almost entirely from the well-off Italo-Canadians. People here do the typical suburban thing, pay the mortgage, go to work and then return to their family house. BQ candidate is a relatively weak gentleman here, he's been with various separatist movements for ages and worked actively with the Bloc since its creation.. I wonder how come he failed to get elected ( or get a nod ) on any level during that time, he is also much older and much less known to the population as a whole in this riding. Carole-Marie should increase her vote by a little comparing to 2000, when she had to face a more dynamic, younger delegate.
13/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Je crois qu'on a tendance à surestimer l'effondrement du vote libéral dû au scandale des commandites. Une fois arrivé le 28 juin, les électeurs auront-ils encore ce scandale frais en mémoire ? J'en doute fort. Si le vote libéral régresse pour la peine, le Bloc a peut-être des chances, mais je crois plus réaliste que le vote libéral se maintiendra dans cette circonscription de l'Est de l'île Jésus. Ce n'est pas une circonscription souverainiste et il n'est pas certain que les électeurs fédéralistes, même dégoûtés par le scandale, permettront l'élection d,un bloquiste en divisant leur vote. Mais ce sera serré.
12/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
We are talking East end Laval/Montreal area. This is the only BQ territory on either island (the eastern part of the islands). Think of Montreal as a Canadian version of Berlin. Anyways, the Liberals won here in 2000 because the Bloc went downhill at that time. Now they are more popular than in a long time, what with the sponsorship scandal and the unpopularity of the provincial government. Before Carole-Marie Allard won here, the Bloc won all the previous two elections. Expect them to win again.
03/05/04 Full
Email: [hidden]
Dans un commentaire précédant, je disais que les conservateurs avec le candidat Pierre Albert était bien placé pour remporter ce comté. Mais voilà, les chose ont bien changé, pour une raison que je ne connais pas, les conservateurs ont déplacé Monsieur Albert pour le mettre dans Laurier et ont mis à sa place Mme Rosane Raymond la présidante de leur comité exécutif, si je croyais sincèrement que Pierre Albert avait des chances de remporter, maintenant, je suis convaincu du contraire avec Madame Raymond. Le candidat du Bloc Québécois n'est selon moi pas de taille à affronter Madame Allard qui même si elle est backbencher à une bonne équipe avec elle. Alors Je dis que les Libéraux vont surement remporter ce comté puisque les Conservateur ont retiré Pierre Albert et parce que le Bloc Québecois n'a pas choisi un candidat de taille.
21/04/04 pat
Email: [hidden]

Carole marie allard n'est qu'une backbencher et elle sera l'une des nombreux liberaux à tomber au combat lors des prochaines elections.
10/04/04 sam
Email: samuel_541@hotmail.com
Mme Allard vas remporter cette election.Si il y as bien une bonne députée du Quebec au federal cet Carole-Marie Allard. Pendant son mendat elle as su bien representé laval-est. Un compté qui vas rester ROUGE et le merite d'être rouge avec leur candidate exceptionnelle !!
27/03/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
It'll depend on the strenght of the Bloc candidate. If they could find someone with a lot of experience and pretty well known in ( Eastern Part ) of Laval the riding could swing to BQ, but despite the sponsorship scandal and the lack of popularity for PLQ, Carole-Marie Allard is really stong and popular. She has that friendliness to her that everyone likes her. She will be difficult to beat, but like I said if BQ could find somebody (way) above average it could be done. :O)
26/03/04 MM
Email: [hidden]
Bear and Ape uncovered a particular and interesting argumentation over Quebec voters' mood swinging.
It's true that a leading party at the beginning of a campaign in Quebec may crumble on election day. Late Daniel Johnson Sr. in 1962 and Robert Bourassa in 1976 are two famous examples.
The ADQ's surge in 2002 is another interesting case. Around February-April 2002, the ADQ won a partial election in René-Lévesque riding. That victory played a role in the startling victories of the party in the partial elections of Vimont, Berthier and Joliette in June 2002 (PQ won in Lac-St-Jean only by a slim margin over the ADQ). These victories had surely helped the ADQ in polls in the sense that for many Quebecers, this had shown that the party can win in other places than the leader's, and could gain power. Of course, we know the rest of the story.
Many Quebecers swing mood about their vote intention, and do so in a collective and stunning quick fashion when we look at the polls. We just have to see the recent polls pre- and post-sponsorship scandal to observe such phenomenon. However the come back to a "pre-swing" situation takes time. The ADQ's surge occured in June-July 2002, nine months before the April 2003 provincial election. The campaign did sink ADQ's fortunes, but it seems to me that the "Adéquiste" support was melting before Landry dropped the writ. If Landry knows something about mood swings, and I bet he does as well as many other Quebec professional politicians, he had reasons not to have dropped the writ in 2002.
The ADQ's surge looks like another mood swing that occured in 1998: the "Charest effect". In January 1998, the PQ government led by Lucien Bouchard was poised to declare an election in the spring of '98. They had reason to do so, Bouchard's team had a 20-point lead over the provincial Liberals at that time. In March, Charest takes the QLP leadership and as a result of Charest's personal appeal and popularity, the Liberals support went from low-30 to high-50 points. The PQ government waited to drop the writ until late-October, and the party snatched a victory only in terms of seats won (the Liberals got more popular votes).
Based on the cases of 2002 and 1998, we can guess that a "pre-swing" political situation may take 7 to 8 months to come back. Hence, if Martin's Liberals declare a federal election before October 2004, they might not be able to keep all the the seats they won in heavily francophone areas.
26/03/04 Jerry
Email: jayraybo@hotmail.com
Ce comté n'est ni un château fort bloquiste, ni un château fort libéral. Il vote selon la tangeante nationale. Or, en ce moment, la tangeante nationale favorise le Bloc. Alors un député du Bloc pour Laval !
24/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
MM is quite correct when (s)he commented that Laval usually goes with the tide and elects who is gathering the most steam (we would like to add that one Laval riding went ADQ in a by-election in 2002, just when that party started its upward climb in the polls). This would seem to suggest the BQ will win, however we are not ready to predict that. First, Quebec politcs are very volitile and often parties that peak early in the campange suffer dearly on election day (case in point, the ADQ in last spring's Quebec provincial election. Early on, they look poised to form a government and ended up with 5 seats). Second, if the Liberals look like they're going to lose their majority, they will play the "A vote for the Bloc will only help the Conservatives, who are anti-Quebec extremests" card. This could help the Liberals keep seats that are already theirs, but won't help them gain any new seats. As for the Conservatives winning this riding, FORGET IT! The new party is viewed as anti-Quebec, and too far to the right. The PC's almost won in 1997 simply because of the Charest effect. Back then he was the young and popular Progressive Conservative leader who spoke to Quebecers (much as Mulroony did in the 80's). Do not mistake 97 PC results for potential 2004 Conservative numbers.
20/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Mark this one down as "too close to call" This may be one of a handful of ridings outside Montreal or Hull that the Liberals have a chance of holding.
I would not rule the conservatives out on this one. They held this riding during the Mulroney years with Vincent Della Noce, and with the right candidate, they might take it back, but will dcertainly act as a spoiler for either the Liberal of the Bloquiste, depending on whose vote out of which they take the bigger bite.
Not a Liberal slam dunk by any stretch.
20/03/04 MM
Email: [hidden]
Laval isn't more Liberal than any other region. It's an area that generally swings in favour to the party that gathers most of the votes in Quebec.
For instance, in 1998 Quebec provincial elections, most of Laval's riding were won by the PQ. In 2003, all were conquered by the QLP.
If the current level of support given to the BQ stands, Liberals may feel lucky to keep only one seat on "l'Île Jésus" (Name of the island on which Laval is located). Alfred-Pellan is among the most francophone riding in Laval, hence a fertile field for the BQ. Liberals might get more chances to elect their candidates in Laval (formerly Laval-Centre) or Laval-les-Îles (formerly Laval-Ouest).
20/03/04 full name
Email: frodon2000@hotmail.com
Allard won by less than 2000 votes in 2000. Even thught she seems to be a popular mp, I doubt this will be enought to win if the Bloc is still around 45% on election day.
20/03/04 Jean-Sébastien Paquin
Email: [hidden]
The popularity of the liberals dropped way too much for the liberals to even hope to keep this seat. They have no hope to win it, simple.
19/03/04 SP
Email: samuel_541@hotmail.com
Les liberaux vont l'emporté avec CArole-Marie Allard une femme d'experience je suis convaicu qu'elle vas gagné cette elEction
19/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
Close race last time, and still close this time...Laval a bit more liberal then the rest of the province, so will be one to watch....Carole-Marie Allard being a very good MP for the Libs...

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