Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:59 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:43 PM 21/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Piper Huggins
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Louise Martineau
Bloc Québécois:
Christian Ouellet
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Denis Paradis
Peter Stastny

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Brome-Missisquoi (99.6%)
Hon. Denis Paradis
Compton-Stanstead (0.4%)
Hon. David Price

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,752 49.58%
13,282 31.73%
5,377 12.85%
1,967 4.70%
480 1.15%

(170/170 polls, 66550/66550 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(2/172 polls, 272/59183 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
With all the endorsements Mr Stastny has, and the declining support for the Liberals, I would now cautiously hand this one to the Conservatives, after Pontiac, this is the second most likely Conservative gain in Quebec.
10/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Si les conservateurs peuvent élire qu'un seul député au Québec c,est bien Peter Sasny. Il a l,appui des adéquistes te des blocquistes dans sont comté. Et puis, le grand frère de Denis Paradis a rien fait depuis un an pour le comté. Ça va être une bonne course à trois
23/05/04 Matt
Email: [hidden]
I think the Conservatives have a very strong chance of taking this riding. The fact that their candidate Peter Stasny was the former mayor of Sutton Township makes him very well known in the eastern half of the riding. He has also been endorsed by the local ADQ riding president, the current Mayor of Cowansville, and the former Bloc candidate from the previous election. This give him lots of credibility in areas where he is not so well known and also amongst francophones, who might be more apt to vote Bloc. All in all I think it's going to be a three way race, which the Conservatives will win.
13/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Les souverainsites n'ont aucune chance ici. Si le Bloc l'a emporté en 1993, c'est uniquement parce que le vote fédéraliste était divisé entre conservateurs et libéraux. Victoire libérale facile.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This will be one of the few non-Montreal ridings the Libs will keep in Quebec. Denis Paradis is very popular and the riding has a federalist tradition. To comment on what the previous posting said, this riding had elected Conservative MPs in the past, but this is all in the past. Quebecers elected Progressive Conservatives, never Reformers or Canadian Alliance members. Why? Beacuse they feel that they are extremests. To many Quebecers the new Conservative party looks too much like the old CA and it's going to take time for Quebecers to warm up to the new party. Do not think that any Conservatives are going to win in Quebec, nor will they be able to steal enough votes to effect any outcome.
19/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Brome-Missisquoi could be interesting. It was held for the better part of 25 years by Heward Grafftey of the PC's who served as a Cabmin in the Dief and Clark Governments.
If the Conservatives get a strong, well known candidate, there is a remote possibility that they can win.
The Liberals have the advantage of having Denis paradis. The paradis name is GOLD in that area.
The rub could come if the Conservatives and Liberals split the Federalist vote, which could allow the Bloc to come up the middle as they did in 1993 when the late Gaston Peloquin was elected.

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