Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
11:59 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:20 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Pierrette Bellefeuille
Bloc Québécois:
Alain Charette
Pierre Laliberté
Christian Legeais
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Marcel Proulx
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Gail Walker

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hull-Aylmer (99.7%)
Marcel Proulx
Pontiac-Gatineau-Labelle (0.3%)
Robert Bertrand

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,922 51.25%
9,895 23.13%
4,131 9.66%
3,591 8.40%
3,234 7.56%

(199/200 polls, 74156/74156 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(2/234 polls, 241/78127 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 Olivia
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure if the previous poster is a naive ignoramus or merely trying to make Bloc supporters look like idiots. Either way this riding is going Liberal. Don't let the polls fool you. On June 28, the Bloc is not going to get 54% of the vote in Quebec. Although their numbers are way up, they never do as well on election day as they do in the polls. Also on election day the federal votes in Quebec unit behind the Liberals more than they do during the previous weeks. This will be especially true in Hull-Aylmer. The same for Pontiac and Gatineau.
10/06/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Now before you call me a lunatic, consider that the Parti Québécois won a provincial riding with similar boundaries by 2 votes in 1976.
In 1976, the Parti Quebecois won 41% of the pop. vote, while the Liberals won 34%.
The latest poll (June 9, Ekos) puts the Bloc Québécois at 54% (which represents a larger share of the Quebec-wide vote than was won by most safe Bloc ridings in 2000) and the Liberals at 22%.
It's quite possible that the Bloc will score in the 30s or even slightly higher here and that federalist vote splitting will allow the Bloc to shock everyone.
Stranger things have happened.
03/06/04 Dan Lamden
Email: danlamden@hotmail.com
As safe for the liberals as a rural alberta riding is for the conservatives. The feds take care of this area as part of the National Capital Region, because it was largely ignored by PQ. Even the 5 anglo albertans who live in the riding wouldnt vote Conservative in Hull-Aylmer, bloc should keep its 20%.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This riding in the Peace Tower's shadow will surely re-elect the Liberals. Federalist (and in Quebec that means they vote Liberal) with alot of civil servants (who generally don't like changes in government) means a sure-fire Liberal keep.
24/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

The Liberals have won this seat in every federal election since 1891 (when it was still called Comte d'Ottawa). It won't result in the highest plurality, but it's still insanely safe.
17/03/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
This riding is the home of many federal workers. It's in their best interest to see the size of the governement rise and not reduce. For this reason, the cosnervatives are not liked here. Plus, they are perceived as being anti-Québec, wich doesnt help. This riding is very federalist due his proximity to Ottawa, thus the Bloc is not a factor. Very easy liberal win.
17/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Should the Liberals lose this riding, we might as well let Quebec be its own country. This ain't 1976.

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