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Mount Royal

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:59 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:17 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Sébastien Beaudet
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Irwin Cotler
Matthew Fireman
Bloc Québécois:
Vincent Gagnon
Parti Marijuana Party:
Adam Greenblatt
Diane Johnston
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Adam Sommerfeld

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Mont-Royal (100.0%)
Hon. Irwin Cotler

2000 Result/Résultats:
32,339 80.99%
2,476 6.20%
1,727 4.33%
1,425 3.57%
1,961 4.91%

(184/184 polls, 68411/68411 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 J
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals have phoned asking for support, and made worried comments when no one was sure they could support them. However, this is the riding that has consistently had one of the highest Liberal showings in the country, so it's unlikely to actually go Conservative (NDP and Bloc are beyond unlikely; this is not a particularly left-wing area).
Although people want to punish the Liberals, there was just a "punish" vote done (demergers), so there might be a bit less push in that direction. And althoug this area is not particularly left-wing, it's also not particularly right-wing. The Conservative candidate is an unknown, while most people feel that Cotler is a good MP, despite what they think about the party itself.
20/06/04 Robert Lemieux
Email: [hidden]
Si les granulations perdaient chaque siège mais un en tout du Canada, ce serait le seul siège. Mont royal est l'ancienne équitation de Pierre Elliot Trudeau et la chance des libéraux perdant ici est trop basse pour mentionner.
15/06/04 A.J.
Email: [hidden]
I've been canvassing in this riding, and I was suprised to find a lot of people leaning towards the Tories. The gay-marriage issue seems to have touched a nerve with much of the older Jewish demographic who were once the among most stalwart Grits in country; Harper's pro-American/pro-Israeli stance hasn't hurt either. Futhermore, the Conservative tax cuts go down well in the Hampstead and the former Town of Mount Royal (TMR). Cotler will still win of course, but expect a strong showing from Matthew Fireman.
By the way, the Jewish population here is not only 90%+ of Côte-St-Luc & Hampstead but about a third of western Côte-des-Neiges (ie Snowdon) and a good 20% of TMR. Together, I'd say the Jewish community forms 30%-40% of the riding's population.
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
This is the safest Liberal riding in Canada. Period.
10/06/04 Dan
Email: [hidden]
I think it will most likely be Irwin, but not by as much as the Liberals are used to in this riding. Contrary to what the seemingly racist and ignorant "Ryan" has stated, many people in this riding are fed up with the Liberals, and are not interested in "maintaining their influence." Yes, Cotler will win, but anything less than 70% of the vote will be very meaningful.
12/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
No Adam S., Galganov's candidature was never any threat to then the Liberal MP Mrs Finestone. In fact, with all due respect to that gentleman he was considered a fre*k even by the most vivid supporters of the anglo rights in Quebec and even the Equality Party was never formally backing him up and associated to him in any way.
Secondly, this riding is not as Jewish as you may think, in fact it is nothing comparing to Thornhill ( Elinor Caplan's GTA riding ). It does have some parts that are over 90 % Jewish ( Côte St-Luc, Hampstead ), but the old city of Mount Royal and CdN parts of this riding outnumber the above mentioned areas by 4 to 1, at most the Jewish population of this riding is around 25 % ( and I think this is even too high, sorry no census info on that ).
01/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Under the right climate--say, the '84 Mulroney landslide, or the surge of a Anglo-separatist force (as happened provincially in '89), or a maverick independent like Howard Galganov (who temporarily robbed Mount Royal of its safest-seat-in-Canada stature in '97)--this bastion *can* appear breachable. But if National Posties have fantasies of of a Jewish Conservative surge, it's going to happen in suburban Toronto. *Not* here. And *especially* not against Irwin Cotler.
04/04/04 David
Email: [hidden]
People here haven't been told that PET is no longer in politics let alone dead. This riding will be gritty until long after I'm dead.
03/04/04 Ryan
Email: [hidden]
The west end of Montreal: Very elistist old money voters there. They would not vote for those populist Conservaties led by Harper, and they would not vote for the socialist NDP or the separatist BQ. They vote to keep their power, money and influence intact - that means voting for the Liberal Party in big numbers.
23/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Trudeau's old riding and probably the safest non-gerrymandered seat on Earth... 'nuff said
17/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
If this riding doesn't go at least 70% Liberal, somebody's been cheating.
17/03/04 MJ
Agreed. Safest Liberal seat in the entire country, plus Cotler's a high-profile cabinet minister. Irwin in a walk.
16/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
This was Trudeau's riding. No safer Liberal seat in Canada. Bin Laden could win there if you paineted him red.
16/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Trudeau's old riding will go Liberal, probably with the largest majority for the Liberals in the entire country.
16/03/04 RWA
This is the safest Liberal seat in the country. Easy hold for Justice Minister Irwin Cotler.
Email: [hidden]
This is die-hard Liberal territory, along with most of the South of the Island of Montreal. The Liberals are in trouble, but not that much trouble.

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