Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:46 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:24 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Judith Grant
Bloc Québécois:
L-Hubert Leduc
Benoit Legros
Gretchen Schwarz
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
David Smith
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Thierry Vicente

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Gatineau (22.9%)
Mark Assad
Pontiac-Gatineau-Labelle (77.1%)
Robert Bertrand

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,005 51.89%
8,069 20.93%
6,868 17.81%
1,777 4.61%
1,835 4.76%

(41/243 polls, 15465/90541 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(156/234 polls, 52203/78127 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
I was kistening to CFRA's "Ridings at risk" section this morning, and I would now say that Judith Grant is now the odds-on favourite to take this riding.
She is well known,and well regarded, and is running as much on her own name as on her party banner. David Smith,the Liberal canidate is a City Councillor from Maniwaki and does not have the profile. Furthermore, even though the Liberals held the seat in the last parliament, he is not the incumbent.
With the desire for change so high across the country, I would say that this is the riding most likely to fall to the Tories in Quebec.
24/06/04 Daniel
This riding seems ready to change even Peter Mackay visited this riding being targeted by the conservatives. Old liberlas, even friends of the old liberal MP, are now supporting Judy Grant the conservative candidate. YEs this is anglophone, yes it's federalist, but here the conservatives are indeed a federalist alternative, even though it's in Quebec It will be one of possibly two or three conservative ridings in Quebec.
24/06/04 Shawvillain
Email: [hidden]
It baffles me that this riding has not moved into the Conservative column yet or, at the least, in to the To Close To Call column. Anyone who lives in this riding or spends a lot of time in it right now must have their head in the sand to not realise that Judy Grant is far and away the favourite here. So many Liberal and Bloc supporters are voting Conservative because, unlike most of Quebec, they realise that the Bloc is NOT the second choice here, the Conservatives are. Just look at the list of prominent supporters who have publicly endorsed Judy in the papers this week. You will note many, many, of the people listed are well-known life-long Liberal and Bloc supporters. If life-long Liberals are not only supporting Judy, but working and organising for her, one can only imagine the response of the average voter who has less party loyalty in mind when he or she casts their vote. I have even heard word-on-the-street that people think the Liberals will come in third, I repeat, third, in this riding. Everyone I speak with that has met the Liberal candidate says the he does more damage to his campaign by actually meeting people than he would by staying in Hull (where he lives, by the way) and not opening his mouth. From what I hear, he talks a lot but says nothing. Stay tuned to this riding on election night because not only does Judy have an excellent shot at winning, she will likely end up in cabinet if she does.
As for Victor A., I cannot imagine that he actually lives in the riding, or knows much about it, because gun control is one of the top, if not the top, issue here. There are lots of gun-owners in Pontiac and they are upset not only at having to register their guns, but with the absolute waste that went along with the whole registry. Pontiac residents work very hard for their money and resent having it wasted by the Liberals on the gun registry, HRDC boondoggles, adscam etc. when health care service is in shambles. Outside of some of the areas closer to Gatineau, the ineffective gun registry is in itself enough of a reason to vote for the Conservatives.
Further to my point that Victor A. knows little about this riding, the statement that "[p]eople here are hardly involved in agriculture" is mind-boggling! Have you ever driven past Aylmer to Shawville? All farms! From Gatineau to Masson? Farms again! Up the 105 to Maniwaki? Ahh, more farms! This glaring lack of knowledge about the riding makes one wonder if one could even accept his prediction for a Liberal win with any confidence at all.
As for JIM, he seems to forget that what we lost in the Bloc-leaning Labelle portion of the riding we picked up in Buckingham/Masson-Angers, a more federalist area. These people are tax-payers that are disgusted with Liberal waste and, because they are closer to the national capital area, are not likely to drift to the Bloc. Who does that leave? Why the Tories of course! Buckingham has a significant population of older Anglophones who are very receptive to the Conservative Party and who have voted for it in the past. Masson-Angers and newer areas of Buckingham have suburbs filled with young francophone families who are very receptive to the Conservative message of lower taxes and re-investment in health care, not 25 billion in cuts like Paul Martin brought in as finance minister. What people need to realise about this riding is that yes, it is in Quebec, but it is definitely unique in the province and cannot be lumped in with the rest of province as easily as the Liberal supporters on this page would like to.
What is happening in this riding is that federalists are voting Conservative to not split the federalist vote. The good-ship Martin is sinking and Pontiac residents are not going down with it. Time to move this one to the Conservative column.
24/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I'd like to point out a few facts.
1 - the CPC would have finished in front of the bloc.
2 - the candidate here was the alliance candidate last time, and she was the #1 alliance candidate in all of Quebec
3 - this riding is across the river from Ontario, easy access for tories who are targetting one riding to win in quebec, and...
4 - this is the riding they are targetting to win in quebec.
5 - the Bloc vote is up this election, and Liberal down from the last. In the last election, the liberals won big time, meaning, this time around the gap will be smaller. Last election, the combined tory vote was about 12%, this time, in quebec, it's topping 13% or more. Just those numbers alone may be enough to push this into the winners column
6 - lastly, Harper BADLY wants a seat from Quebec. this is where his chances are best, and he's doing all he can to win here. Frankly, I think he'll get his wish.
10/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
My prediction is over-bold at this point, but the last IPSOS-REID poll showed the Conservatives slowly climbing to 13% in Quebec...about what they had in the 1993 wipe-out, but when they did have decent pockets of support in the province. In Pontiac, there are small, English communities that manage to continue to give the Conservatives significant support...the Conservative candidate, running for the Alliance last time, got 15% and carried polls in Clarendon, Bristol and Shawville. Looking for one riding in the province where the Conservatives might have their best result, it is likely this one.
10/06/04 JIM
Email: [hidden]
"Bear and Ape" also have very credible input that "Shawvillain" does not seem to understand. "Shawvillain" is quite right that the Labelle portion of the old Pontiac riding that has been taken away through redistribution had a higher percentage of B.Q. voters than the rest of the riding. However Labelle's portion of the population in general was much smaller than the rest of the riding. So the loss of some B.Q. voters (also a lesser number of Liberal voters)will not make a significant change to Pontiac. What is significant is that right now the B.Q. is polling like it was 1993 all over again. The anglophones and federalist francophones are surly not going to split the vote and even by chance let the B.Q. take Pontiac. In this riding they have the power to keep the B.Q. out.Other federalist areas like Argenteuil are frustrated because they are attached to heavily B.Q. Mirabel which keeps the B.Q. in that riding. As I have said in a previous posting, one day the regressive Conservatives might win in Pontiac but it won't be this time!!!
10/06/04 JIM
Email: [hidden]
"Victor A." has made very credible points that I think "To the Max" is too partisan to see.In reply to "To the Max", Yes in 1993 half of the PROGRESSIVE Conservatives were from Quebec.(None from Pontiac however).This total added up to ONE popular member named Jean Charest.(Don't forget that he was a Progressive Conservative and not one of these new Regressive Conservatives like Judy Grant).In 1997 their were 4 P.C.'s riding on Jean Charest's coattails to make 5 altogether. (I still don't count any from Pontiac however).By the time 2000 came around 3 of them had jumped ship to the federal Liberals while another became the leader of the provincial Liberals. Now in 2004 the last remaining Quebec P.C. decided to become an independent when the Alliance took over his party.(Even if he would have sold his soul to the devil, I think he realized that the devil was not going to win in Richmond-Arthabaska).So after 10 years of very rocky ground for the Progressive Conservatives in Quebec there is not going to be any Regressive Conservatives elected from Quebec in this election. Maybe down the road but not this time.(By the way, you mentioned the Liberals in bed with the separatists. If the Conservatives by some remote chance happen to squeak in with a minority government, who do you think they will be courting to sleep with? It sure won't be the ultra left leaning N.D.P.!!!!!!!!!
01/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
To the max, your submission proves that you are unfortunately WAY out of touch with the realities and sensibilities of people living in this riding. I won't even try to understand your logic because I suspect all you try to do is to overhype the Conservative candidate.
Let's take a look into some REAL facts for Pontiac accd. to the 2001 census,
72 % of the population speak French as a mother tongue, 24 % speak English, so francophones outnumber the anglophones by almost 3 to 1, secondly the Liberal party ( and PC follows the trend this year) always chooses anglophone candidates because they want to have at least one Anglo-Quebecer from a rural area elected. They actually do the same in Ontario, by often pushing Franco-Ontarians in rural ridings with anglophone majority. Thirdly, this riding is anything but similar in comparison to its Ontario neighbor Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke. People here are hardly involved in agriculture. In fact, retail, social & health services as well as gov't employees dominate this riding. My final point is that gun registry and the so-called underinvestment in military are simply NOT AN ISSUE in this riding, let alone all of Quebec, most Quebecers support the current %-age of military spending and we overwhelmingly ( accd. to surveys ) support gun registry.
01/06/04 Shawvillain
Email: [hidden]
Well, Bear and Ape, I am a Quebecer, who lives in Quebec, and speaks English as a first language. I am helping out on Judy's campaign and most definitely I intend to vote Conservative. As I mentioned in my previous post, the redistribution of the riding has taken away most of the Bloc support (around Mont-Laurier). Thus, all voters in this riding can vote without having to worry about splitting the vote. Now, the anglophones in this riding (40% of the population) are small "c" conservatives. They have voted Liberal since '93 to block the Bloc. The francophones in this riding are federalists - pas question. That means that they have two choices - Liberal or Conservative. Despite the assumptions that Liberals seem to have, most francophones that I speak with are planning to vote Tory, or, at the least, they want a change. A change without plans to vote for the Bloc means only one thing to me - and it ain't voting for the NDP! Add to this many Liberals who are upset at the way that Bobby Bertrand was dumped and you have both Liberal and Bloc voters coming to our side to defeat Martin and the Fiberals. Mark this one in the blue column, albeit with a slight tinge of purple to acknowledge all the Liberal support that we are getting!
25/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We would like to know just how many of the people predicting Conservative win in Pontiac are actually from Quebec, let alone English Quebecers. Let us explain something; English Quebecers will not chance vote splitting and allowing the BQ to win. There is stilla French speaking majority in this riding. French Quebecers are returning to the Bloc in droves. This is reason enough for the english population to vote for the Liberals even if they don't like them. People please let's get a grasp on reality here! Conservatives will likely win big in parts of rural Ontario, NOT rural Quebec!
23/05/04 To The Max
Victor, your comments are unfounded with regards to the Conservatives. Let us remember that in the wipeout of 93,half the surviving MPs were from Quebec!
Name recognition does go a long way, but so does being involved in a sponsorship scandle AND being in bed with the seperatists! It really all comes down to this: if the Conservatives can be seen as having a shot in this riding, they will take it. There are a lot of votes that are resting with the Liberals in this former Tory stronghold. All of this nonsense that Harper/the CPC is extreme will matter not; it's just rhetoric and will be seen as such.
Does the french-speaking majority matter? Yes, but for different reasons than you suggest. Let us remember that the BQ does attract conservative minded people. If even half of the anglephone voters (22%) and even 1/3 of the french votes (17%) would capture this for the Conservatives.
"Impossible!" some might say, but so was the chants in '84!
16/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Le Pontiac est probablement la région la plus anglophone du Québec hors de la région métropolitaine de Montréal. Victoire libérale prévisible grâce au vote anglophone, qui ne se divisera pas. Les partis souverainistes n'ont ici aucune chance.
15/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
OMG, some ( outside of Quebec )Conservatives are so desperate that he start to hallucinate and imagine that a PC nobody A.K.A. the official candidate can win here, nothing can be further from the truth, while this riding has a large number of anglophones, in fact the largest one outside of the Greater Montreal, it is still mostly a francophone riding. People, old results don't count anymore, the Meech Accord killed the Conservative party in Quebec, the two parties in Quebec are the PLC and the BQ, the rest are what is called the *fringe parties*, did any of you bother to look at the candidate cridentials before giving your so called opinion on who'd win here... do you think that any francophone voter with half of a brain would vote for an extreme right-winger Harper as their Prime Minister. The answer is NO!! You guys maybe should focus on making comments on the ridings that you know better.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
While I am likely going to regret this, I'm going to move this riding into the CPC column.
The CPC actually has a candidate here, and if I recall, he nominated was righfully nominated, rather then harper doing it for him.
This is one of a few ridings where the CPC actually has a shot, given it's a minor one.
This is the second strongest CPC riding in the province, and along with Portneuf, should make for an interesting show.
How does the ADQ ridings matrix their way to here, any strong showing? I'd also like to point out a PC+CA vote here would have placed second, over the Bloc.
06/05/04 MM
Email: morin_xxm@hotmail.com
The previous times Pontiac had candidates from the LPC, Cons. and NDP who all had an English family name was in 1984 and 1988. The Progressive-Conservatives won in both occasions. It's also interesting to see that since the Second World War, Pontiac had usually been Conservative when the party took power : 1958, 1962, 1984, 1988. In '63, Pontiac stayed Conservative even though Libs got a minority government. In '79, Pontiac stayed Liberal while the PC won a minority.
By the way can someone tell me who's David Smith, the Liberal candidate. Does he have the same name of another current Senator in Ottawa?
05/05/04 Shawvillain
Email: [hidden]
This riding is all Conservative. The voters are all small "c" conservatives who have all voted Liberal (while holding their noses) just to block the Bloc. With riding distribution, the Bloc is no longer a factor as the strongest Bloc part of the riding (around Mont-Laurier) is now gone. Residents can now vote without worrying about splitting the vote. Judy Grant is an excellent candidate who is known all across the riding. She was the best of the CA candidates in the province last time around and now with the unified Conservatives she has an even stronger team backing her. The sponsorship scandal has turned off even life long Liberals and brought them to the Tory cause. This riding will be Blue, Tory Blue.
02/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Again, don't bring up Richmond-Arthabaska, Tory predictors, you only undermine your argument. But strangely enough, this *isn't* all that off the hypothetical Tory radar--and uniquely for Quebec, it's nothing to do with ADQ-compatibility, but entirely to do with Judith Grant's impressive Alliance result last time out, plus a certain sort of Ottawa Valley ReformAllianceTory synergy that may potentially tie this in less to the rest of Quebec than to Cheryl Gallant's domain across the Ottawa River. *Potentially*. Especially with all the heaviest inland BQ parts carved away through redistribution. But for now, heavily Anglo/heavily Federalist = a Liberal cinch. Don't be surprised, though, if it comes from behind as, who knows, Harper's *only* Quebec steal--especially if Grant runs.
24/04/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
One of the easier Quebec ridings to predict. Located in the west of the province with a large anglophone population. This will go Liberal with the Conservatives finishing a distant second. The Bloc isn't a factor here.
22/04/04 John
Email: [hidden]
If there is one riding which Conservatives could win in Quwebec, in addition to Ricmond Arthabasca, it is here, with a majotity English,federalist will not vote Bloc, also might be angry enough with the sponsorship scandal to vote for a different federalist party than he Liberals, alos a key candidate judith Grant former well liked mayor of Chelsea, very rural, which are all good signs for the Conservatives.
13/04/04 MM
Email: [hidden]
The Bloc québécois is far from being a threath to the Liberals in this riding. Pontiac could be one of the rare Quebec ridings where Conservatives may come second in the next election. If not in Pontiac, that means they wouldn't have done a great campaign in Quebec (a great campaign for them may be 10 or 15% provincially. At the provincial level, in 1989, the Anglophone Equality Party got more votes than the Parti Québécois in Pontiac.
17/03/04 Full Name
This riding is the only one outside of Montréal to have an english population superior to 40%. This alone should be enough to ensure an easy liberal victory, considering the anglophones strong dislike of the bloc.

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