Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:42 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:50 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Stéphane Chénier
Laura Colella
Payam Eslami
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ricardo Fellicetti
Bloc Québécois:
Paul-Alexis François
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Massimo Pacetti

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel (100.0%)
Massimo Pacetti

2000 Result/Résultats:
34,968 76.66%
6,593 14.45%
1,728 3.79%
1,049 2.30%
1,276 2.80%

(199/199 polls, 73790/73790 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Antonio
Email: [hidden]
This might just be one of the most solid Liberal ridings in the country. Alfonso Gagliano prided himself on winning every poll, over 200 of them, in 2000. He won each one with a majority of the vote. The Liberal machine is in full swing here....The latest predictions of 7-9 seats for the Liberals are laughable, but if they were reduced to 9 seats, this would be one of them.
16/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Forteresse libérale imprenable vu la composition ethnolinguistique de la circonscription. Massimo Pacetti n'a même pas besoin de faire campagne. Quiconque se présente sous la bannière libérale à St-Michel ou à St-Léonard est assuré d'y être élu, et ce sans égard aux qualités personnelles du candidat. Victoire libérale écrasante, comme d'habitude.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
There are 12 ridigns that are solidly liberal in Quebec
this is one of them
These persentage wins are usually seen with right-wing candidates in Alberta. The win here was so overwhelming. Even if the Bloc polled at 60% in Quebec, this is one of the ridings they would *not* win. It's that Liberal.
23/04/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
This riding is made up of two distictly different neighborhoods..Saint Michel in the west and the former city of St-Léonard in the east. St-Michel is full of crime and low key local criminal groups. It has a reputation along with some parts of the NDG as the most dangerous place in Montreal, now once you move eastwards and enter into the now borough of St. Leonard, it's a completly different world, energetic, business oriented district that encompasses the largest Italo-Canadian community in Quebec, This area is a breath of fresh air in mostly poorer, working class Mtl East End. St. Leonard is very Liberal, St. Michel is more liberal than BQ for sure too because the number of Haitian, Latino and other ethnic backgrounds is higher than the number of Québecois de souche, Very easy Liberal Win.
16/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Another Montreal riding which will elect a Liberal with a large majority. Granted it will be eroded from the last election due to the sponsorship scandal but by far not enough to result in a Liberal loss.

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